ECON 102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Business Cycle

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26 Oct 2020

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Definition of peaks, troughs, recessions, and growth recessions. The business cycle is defined in terms of the movements of real gdp. A "peak" of a business cycle is defined as the highest level of real gdp before a recession. A "trough" is defined as the lowest level of real gdp before it begins to grow again. A "recession" is a period of negative real gdp growth. There is no definite rule, although it"s common to roughly define two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth as recession. (one quarter of negative growth is not usually considered a recession. ) The actual beginning and end of a recession are defined by a group of economists on the national bureau of economic research"s business cycle dating committee. The committee takes a variety of factors into account in making their determination of when the peak and trough occurs. Real gdp is the main indicator, but the committee also looks at other data such as employment.

Related Questions

TRUE or FALSE?

1. Real GDP can never be greater than potential GDP.

2. When foreign countries experience an increase in income, this is likely to increase our GDP.

3. The United States economy spends about as many months in recession as it spends in expansion.

4. If individuals decrease their consumption spending then this is likely to reduce the growth rate of GDP, all else the same.

5. Movements of real GDP around potential GDP are called the business cycle.

6. If total government spending in a given year was $3.7 trillion, then all of this spending counted directly in GDP as part of the government spending (G) category.

7. The last recession in the United States began in December of 2007.

8. During a recession, the inflation rate tends to decline.

9. Changes in spending that cause firms to change their level of production of goods/services are called supply shocks.

10. All else the same, an increase in income in the United States leads to a decrease in our net exports.

11. Since 1929 there have been 14 declared recessions in the United States.

12. Total spending in the economy is equal to consumption + investment + government spending - net exports.

13. During each recession, potential GDP falls.

14. Percentage wise, the government collects more tax from individuals than it does from firms.

15. During a recession, the Federal Reserve pursues contractionary monetary policy.

16. During a recession, the Federal Reserve is most likely to sell government bonds to the public.

17. Investment spending increases during periods of recession.

18. Congress meets about every 6 - 8 weeks to discuss the performance of the economy and potential changes to fiscal policy.

19. If there is more competition among firms, then the inflation rate will tend to increase.

20.The demand for labor increases when the economy is in an expansionary phase.

21. Total spending by the government is about 20% of GDP in the US economy.

22. The unemployment rate decreases during periods of expansion.

23. If oil prices increase by 20% then this is an example of a supply shock.

24. When the Federal Reserve buys government bonds, interest rates are likely to fall.

25. If Congress wanted to help the economy out of a recession, they would be most likely to reduce government spending and/or increase taxes.

Falsenot in accordance with the fact or reality or actualityMore (Definitions, Synonyms, Translation)

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1. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the level of overall spendingin the economy by changes in:
A) the interest rate.
B) the money supply.
C) banking regulations.
D) taxes and spending.

2. Economists have identified several consecutive months of fallingemployment and forecasts for the next few months are for more ofthe same. At what point in the business cycle is the economyapparently located?
A) recession
B) expansion
C) business cycle peak
D) business cycle trough

3. The onset of the Great Depression:
A) was not a shock to anyone since most economists predicted theâroaring 20sâ were bound to end in disaster.
B) created a disagreement between the Hoover administration andconventional economists because Hoover wanted the government tointervene much more quickly than most others.
C) came as a considerable shock to the conventional wisdom ofeconomics at that time and opened the door for critiques ofmainstream thought by economists like JM Keynes.
D) was in 1918 at the end of World War I.

4. When economists measure economic growth, they often use:
A) the inflation rate.
B) the unemployment rate.
C) nominal GDP.
D) real GDP.

5. In a typical business cycle, the business cycle peak isimmediately followed by the:
A) recession.
B) business cycle trough.
C) expansion.
D) depression.

6. Suppose an economy experiences rising total output accompaniedby increasing employment, this is generally known as:
A) stagflation.
B) recession.
C) inflation.
D) expansion.

7. Controlling interest rates is an example of:
A) fiscal policy.
B) tax policy.
C) monetary policy.
D) exchange rate policy.

8. The alternation between recessions and expansions is known asthe:
A) unemployment rate.
B) long-run economic growth.
C) business cycle.
D) macroeconomy.

9. A recession in America is typically associated with:
A) a falling unemployment rate.
B) a decrease in the number of people living in poverty.
C) a decrease in the percentage of Americans with healthinsurance.
D) an increase in corporate profits.

10. The purpose of macroeconomic policy is to:
A) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate.
B) reduce the severity of recessions.
C) rein in excessively strong expansions.
D) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate and to reduce theseverity of recessions.

11. The trade balance is the difference between the value ofthe:
A) trade deficit and the budget deficit.
B) goods and services that one country sells to other countries andthe value of the goods and services it buys in return.
C) exchange rates of two countries that are engaged ininternational trade.
D) national debt and the foreign debt.

12. Increasing the total amount of available productive resourcesis the focus of __________.
A) macroeconomics
B) fiscal policy
C) monetary policy
D) microeconomics

13. The point on a business cycle when real GDP stops rising andbegins falling is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

14. During a recession, one will often observe:
A) aggregate output rising.
B) unemployment rates will be increasing while aggregate output isfalling.
C) employment rates will be rising.
D) zero unemployment rates.

15. Monetary policy involves:
A) changes in government spending.
B) changes in government tax receipts.
C) changes in the quantity of money.
D) changes in tax rates.

16. The trough of the business cycle:
A) comes right after the expansion phase.
B) comes before the recession phase.
C) is a temporary maximum level of real GDP.
D) is a temporary minimum level of real GDP.

17. Which one of the following statements about the U.S. economy isnot accurate?
A) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratelower than the average annual growth rate of population.
B) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratehigher than the average annual growth rate of population.
C) Since the Second World War, macroeconomic policy has helped makethe economy more stable.
D) Long-run growth per capita is the key to higher wages and arising standard of living.

18. An economic recovery is all of the following except:
A) economic growth of a sustained nature.
B) a short-run increase in aggregate production in aneconomy.
C) a time of increasing employment.
D) the end of the business cycle.

19. Which of the following would NOT be classified as amacroeconomic question?
A) How many people are employed in the economy as a whole?
B) What determines the overall level of prices in the economy as awhole?
C) What determines the overall trade in goods, services, andfinancial assets between the United States and the rest of theworld?
D) What determines the cost to a university or college of offeringa new course?

20. Which of the following statements regarding price level orinflation is correct?
A) Supply and demand can not explain why a particular good orservice becomes more expensive relative to other goods andservices.
B) Inflation affects only the more advanced countries whereas lessadvanced countries face deflation.
C) Prices of most goods and services remained stable during thegreat depression.
D) In general, when the economy is in recession and jobs are hardto find, inflation tends to fall.

21. If wages grew at a 5% rate last year and average prices grew ata 3% rate, then the average worker is:
A) better off.
B) worse off.
C) no better or worse off.
D) unaffected.

22. In an open economy:
A) the exchange rate is determined by the government.
B) specialization in activities with a comparative advantage is notpossible.
C) trade is only beneficial to the relatively larger economy.
D) there is trade in goods, services, or assets with othercountries.

23. Changes in government spending and taxes in an effort to changeoverall spending in an economy is:
A) fiscal policy.
B) monetary policy.
C) investment.
D) the stock market.

24. If an economy is open, this means that:
A) anyone can immigrate to the country.
B) trading with other countries makes up a portion of itseconomy.
C) it does not trade with other countries.
D) it will experience a drop in its real GDP.

25. Inflation is a situation where:
A) the average price level falls.
B) the average price level increases.
C) the average price level becomes negative.
D) the real price level falls.

26. The topics studied in macroeconomics include:
A) the price of a motorcycle.
B) the wages of engineers.
C) the average price level in the economy.
D) how much ice cream consumers buy.

27. A period of rising real GDP is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

28. The modern tools of macroeconomic policy are:
A) tax policy and antitrust policy.
B) fiscal policy and monetary policy.
C) monetary policy and exchange rate policy.
D) capital policy and labor policy.

29. A ârubber neckingâ traffic jam is an example of:
A) microeconomics in action.
B) individual behavior that has a large aggregate impact.
C) the paradox of thrift.
D) an outcome smaller than the sum of its parts.

30. The most painful consequence of a recession is:
A) rising unemployment.
B) increasing inflation.
C) increasing aggregate output.
D) higher interest rates.

31. Per capita economic growth is:
A) economic growth per unit of capital.
B) economic growth per person.
C) economic expansion over the business cycle.
D) sustained increase in aggregate output.

32. Keynesian economics stressed:
A) total spending.
B) the self-regulating power of free markets.
C) the long run.
D) that the Depression should run its course to bring down the highcost of living.

33. When an economy's overall production grows faster than itspopulation, this is referred to as:
A) long-run growth per capita.
B) an increase in nominal GDP.
C) deflation.
D) the paradox of thrift.

34. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the overall level of spendingin the economy through:
A) changes in the inflation rate.
B) changes in the quantity of money or the interest rate.
C) changes in tax policy or government spending.
D) discretionary regulation of profits and wages.

35. With regard to the aggregate price level, economists generallybelieve:
A) price stability is a desirable goal.
B) inflation is worse than deflation.
C) deflation is worse than inflation.
D) inflation actually benefits most retired people.

36. Recessions are periods when:
A) output rises.
B) the aggregate price level rises.
C) the unemployment rate is falling.
D) output and employment are falling.

37. Monetary policy attempts to affect the overall level ofspending in the economy by changes in:
A) taxes.
B) taxes and spending.
C) taxes and interest rates.
D) interest rates and the quantity of money.

38. The basic difference between an economic recession and economicdepression is that:
A) the latter is a shorter economic downturn than the former.
B) during recessions output falls faster than duringdepressions.
C) during depressions employment falls faster than duringrecessions.
D) the former is a longer economic downturn than the latter.

39. The central mission of modern macroeconomics is to prevent_____ from happening again.
A) recessions
B) inflation
C) deflation
D) anything like the Great Depression

40. Fiscal policy refers to:
A) the control of interest rates.
B) the control of government spending and taxations.
C) the control of the quantity of money.
D) the control of interest rates and of government spending.

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Question 3

According to Joseph Schumpeter, the theory of creative destruction describes a process by which

	A	some new products unleash a gale of destruction that drive other new products out of the market.
B		new products unleash a gale of destruction that drives old products out of the market.
C		new products are created by the destruction of capital.
D		the creation of new products never involves the destruction of old products.

Question 4

Which of the following countries had the highest GDP per capita in 2012?

		A Qatar
B		United States
C		Japan
D		Norway

Question 5

________ save a ________ of their income. This ________ capital in their economy and raises economic growth.

	A	Developing countries; large proportion; decreases
B		Developing countries; small proportion; increases
C		High-income countries; large proportion; increases
D		High-income countries; small proportion; increases

Question 6

The demand for loanable funds is determined by the willingness of ________ to borrow money to engage in new investment projects.

A		government
B		households
C		banks
D		firms

Question 7

The U.S. economy has been more stable since 1950.

True

False

Question 8

When the economy reaches a trough in a business cycle, which of the following will occur?

A		Income, production, and employment will continue to fall.
B		Income, production, and employment will begin to rise.
C		Income and production will rise, but employment will continue to fall.
D		Employment rises, but income and production will continue to fall.

Question 9

In a closed economy, what is the relationship between saving and investment?

A		Saving is greater than investment.
B		Investment is greater than saving.
C		Investment is equal to saving.
D		Investment may be greater or smaller than saving.

Question 10

The per-worker production function shows the relationship between ________ per hour worked and ________ per hour worked, holding ________ constant.

A		labor; real GDP; technology
B		capital; real GDP; technology
C		labor; capital; real GDP
D		capital; labor; real GDP

Question 11

New growth theory states that increases in ________ capital will result in ________ at the ________ level.

	A	knowledge; increasing returns to scale; firm
	B	physical; decreasing returns to scale; firm
	C	knowledge; decreasing returns to scale; economy
D		knowledge; increasing returns to scale; economy

Question 12

Which of the following is not a reason why the Industrial Revolution occurred when and where it did?

A		The British government was committed to upholding private property rights.
B		The British government was able to eliminate arbitrary increases in taxes.
C		The British government was able to more easily seize wealth.
D		Institutional changes by the British government helped protect wealth.

Question 13

Growth in real GDP per capita for the world economy was greatest during

A		the seventeenth century.
B		the eighteenth century.
C		the nineteenth century.
D		the twentieth century.

Question 14

Which of the following is a normative statement about economic growth?

A		Economic growth is associated with higher labor productivity growth.
B		Economic growth increases GDP per capita.
C		Economic growth hurts developing countries.
D		Foreign direct investment stimulates economic growth.

Question 15

The effect of a recession on a company like Whirlpool Corporation is such that

A		sales decline more sharply for Whirlpool as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.
B		profits fall less sharply as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.
C		the decline in sales is more short-lived as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.
D		there is no difference in the impact of the recession on its profits as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.

Question 16

For the recessions in the United States since the 1950s,

A		cyclical unemployment has been non-existent.
B		unemployment rises on average by about 1.2 percentage points 12 months after a recession begins.
C		unemployment falls on average by 2 percentage points 12 months after a recession begins.
D		unemployment rises on average about 5 percentage points 12 months after a recession begins.

Question 17

You are an economic advisor to the president. You are asked to recommend a policy to promote long-term economic growth in the economy. Which of the following policies would you choose?

A		a reduction in sales taxes
B		an investment tax credit
C		a reduction in taxes on luxury yachts
D		All of these

Question 18

In comparison to a government that runs a balanced budget, when the government runs a budget deficit,

	A	the equilibrium interest rate will fall.
	B	business investment will fall.
	C	household savings will fall.
	D	None of these

Question 19

If labor productivity growth slows down in a country, this means that the growth rate in ________ has declined.

A		labor force participation
B		the quantity of goods or services that can be produced by one hour of work
C		the working-age population
D		nominal GDP

Question 20

Policies to promote growth by increasing saving and investment work through

A		decreasing the supply of loanable funds, lowering the interest rate, raising the level of investment in physical capital.
B		increasing the supply of loanable funds, increasing the interest rate, raising the level of investment in physical capital.
C		increasing the supply of loanable funds, lowering the interest rate, lowering the level of investment in physical capital.
D		increasing the supply of loanable funds, lowering the interest rate, raising the level of investment in physical capital.

ECON 102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Business Cycle

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