ECON 102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 21: Aggregate Demand, Government Spending, John Maynard Keynes

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8 Jul 2020

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The crowding out effect works in the opposite direction. Def: crowding out effect the offset in aggregate demand that results when expansionary policy raises the interest rate and thereby reduces investment spending. If consumers want to purchase more goods and services, they will need to increase their holdings of money. This shifts the demand of money to the right, resulting in pushing up interest rates. As a result, higher interest rates raise the cost of borrowing and the return to savings. Even though the increase in government purchases shifts aggregate demand to the right, the reduction in consumption and investments will pull aggregate demand back to the left. Thus, aggregate demand increases by less than the increase in government purchases. Therefore, government increases its purchase, but depending on the size of the multiplier and crowding out effect: If the multiplier effect is greater than the crowding out effect, aggregate demand will rise by more than the government purchases.

Related Questions

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nationâs spending amount which increases the economyâs deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. Thatâs what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that âyou canât be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneouslyâat least I canât see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.â He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesnât agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesnât change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates arenât declining meaning investment wouldnât continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states âMost spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.â He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soroâs point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states âThe other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.â He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: âBut when you have a collapse of credit thereâs only one source of credit that is still credible, and thatâs the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.â I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugmanâs IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugmanâs points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

1.Ceteris paribus, if the U.S. federal government reduces its budget deficit which of the following will be observed?

Answer

	a.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the right.
	b.	The economy will always approach potential GDP.
	c.	The marginal propensity to consume will increase.
	d.	The average price level will increase.
	e.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the left.

2. If the government wants to close a GDP gap, it can:

Answer

	a.	lower government spending on social security.
	b.	adopt contractionary fiscal policies to control inflation.
	c.	increase its budget deficit.
	d.	repay its borrowings.
	e.	raise both direct and indirect tax rates.

3. Suppose the short-run equilibrium level of income exceeds the full employment level of income and there is high inflation. Hence, the government decides to implement a fiscal policy that will act to reduce national output and price level. This can be accomplished by:

Answer

	a.	lowering average tax rates such that aggregate supply is increased.
	b.	increasing government spending such that aggregate expenditures are increased.
	c.	increasing transfer payments such that aggregate expenditures decline.
	d.	raising taxes and government spending by the same amount such that aggregate supply is decreased and aggregate demand is increased.
	e.	decreasing government spending such that aggregate demand is reduced.

4. A drop in investment spending caused by increased government budget deficits is referred to as:

Answer

	a.	the multiplier effect.
	b.	crowding out.
	c.	an expansionary gap.
	d.	the paradox of thrift.
	e.	the Ricardian equivalence.

5. Discretionary fiscal policy is best defined as:

Answer

	a.	the deliberate manipulation of the money supply to expand the economy.
	b.	the deliberate change in tax laws and government spending to change equilibrium income.
	c.	the policy action taken by the Congress to reduce the federal budget deficit.
	d.	the arbitrary fluctuation in tax laws and budget requirements.
	e.	the automatic change in certain fiscal instruments when real GDP changes.

6. Which of the following can be considered as an automatic stabilizer in the economy?

Answer

	a.	Money supply
	b.	Disposable income
	c.	Real exchange rate
	d.	Real interest rate
	e.	Unemployment insurance

7. Which of the following is true about automatic stabilizers?

Answer

	a.	When income rises, automatic stabilizers increase/boost spending.
	b.	Automatic stabilizers are a part of discretionary fiscal policy.
	c.	An automatic stabilizer is any program that responds to fluctuations in the business cycle in a way that moderates the effects of those fluctuations.
	d.	Any kind of trade policy adopted by the government will be considered as an automatic stabilizer.
	e.	The interest rate is an example of an automatic stabilizer.

8. Increased budget deficits

Answer

	a.	can cause interest rates to increase and hence decrease net exports
	b.	have no effect on net exports
	c.	can cause interest rates to decrease and hence increase net exports
	d.	never impose additional interest costs on the government

9. The Ricadian Equivalence implies that when financing additional government expenditures

Answer

	a.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will decrease either way.
	b.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will increase either way.
	c.	increasing borrowing is the best option
	d.	increasing current taxes is the best option

10. Assuming no effects on aggregate supply, if the government increases government spending and decreases taxes in an attempt to prevent a possible recession, aggregate demand will shift to the ____, the price level will either remain constant or ____, and the level of real GDP will ____.

Answer

	a.	right; decrease; increase
	b.	right; decrease; decrease
	c.	left; decrease; decrease
	d.	left; increase; increase
	e.	right; increase; increase

11. For a hypothetical economy, the MPS is 0.08 and the MPI is 0.17. If government spending increases by $35 and taxes increase by $35, what will be the net effect on equilibrium income?

Answer

	a.	A decrease of $35
	b.	An increase of $105
	c.	An increase of $35
	d.	A decrease of $105
	e.	A decrease of $15

12.12. The term fiscal policy refers to

Answer

	a.	the adjustment of the GDP for inflation.
	b.	the purchase and sale of U.S. government securities to regulate the money supply.
	c.	the use of government spending and taxation to influence the level of economic growth and inflation.
	d.	the use of fines to penalize unfair business practices.
	e.	a policy action by Congress to overrule unpopular budget cuts by the president.

13. If aggregate demand intersects aggregate supply in the vertical range of the aggregate supply curve, then, other things equal, an increase in government spending will

Answer

	a.	raise the price level and leave real GDP unchanged.
	b.	raise real GDP by the amount indicated by the government spending multiplier and leave the price level unchanged.
	c.	raise both real GDP and the price level by a multiple of the initial spending increase.
	d.	have no effect on real GDP or on the price level, because all private investment will be crowded out.
	e.	lower real GDP by an amount equal to the spending increase and reduce inflation.

14. Which of the following is not a means to finance government spending?

Answer

	a.	Government subsidies
	b.	Government debt
	c.	Capital gains taxes
	d.	Personal income taxes
	e.	Money creation

15. An automatic stabilizer is

Answer

	a.	a change in government spending aimed at achieving a policy goal.
	b.	an element of fiscal policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	c.	an element of monetary policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	d.	a decrease in tax rates as the economy moves into a recession.
	e.	a deliberate change in taxation aimed at increasing real GDP.

16. Budget deficits tend to grow during recessions because

Answer

	a.	real GDP growth is zero, which causes neither tax receipts nor government expenditures to grow.
	b.	real GDP growth is positive, which reduces both tax receipts and transfer payments.
	c.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces transfer payments in relation to tax receipts.
	d.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.
	e.	real GDP growth is positive, which increases tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.

41.Which of the following is a valid statement about the Keynesian and classical models of the macroeconomy?

A. Fiscal policy will affect output in the Keynesian model, but only the price level in the classical model.

B. The economy adapts quickly to demand shocks under the Keynesian model, but not under the classical model.

C. A sharp decrease in the value of a nation's currency will lead to higher price levels in the Keynesian model, but not in the classical model.

D. Increases in autonomous expenditure will increase aggregate demand in the Keynesian model, but not in the classical model.

E. An increase in the productive capacity of an economy will result in greater output in both the Keynesian and classical models.

42. Suppose the government spends $500M on a project that has absolutely no value to the country. Which statement about this project is correct?

A. If taxes were raised $500M to fund this project, the Keynesian model predicts that this will have no net effect on output in the economy.

B. If the government raised the money for this project by printing $500M in bonds and selling them to the Fed, the effect is exactly the same as if they sold the bonds to households.

C. The project will increase aggregate supply because it will increase the total quantity of goods and services supplied in the economy.

D. If the marginal propensity to save in the economy is equal to 0.25, the Keynesian model predicts that this project will result in a $2000M increase in GDP.

E. Under the assumptions of the classical model, the result of this project will be increased in both the price level and equilibrium GDP.

43. A particular economy has a consumption of $400M, a government deficit of $100M, taxes of $250M, and income of $800M. Which of the following statements must be true?

A. If the investment is zero, there is no foreign trade imbalance.

B. If the trade surplus is $50M, the investment will be equal to $100M.

C. If the capital account surplus is $50M, the investment will be equal to $100M.

D. If the trade surplus is $100M, there will be an investment.

E. None of the above statements is necessarily true.

44. Which piece of information would be least useful in trying to predict the effect of a $700M increase in government spending on equilibrium GDP?

A. marginal propensity to save

B. The slope of the aggregate supply curve

C. Whether taxes are raised to pay for the spending increase

D. The current level of structural unemployment

E. Whether the bonds used to finance the spending were sold to households or to the Fed

45.Which of the statements relating to full employment and full capacity is false?

A. At full employment there is no frictional unemployment; at full capacity, there is no structural unemployment.

B. The full-employment level of output is less than the full capacity level of output.

C. At full employment there is no cyclical unemployment; at full capacity, there is no frictional unemployment.

D. A government spending increase will result in increased output and price levels at full employment, but only increased price levels at full capacity.

E. In the long run, an economy that starts at full capacity will move to full employment.

46. What would be the effect of a law requiring that government spending equal tax revenues in each year?

A. Fiscal policy would be completely eliminated as a tool to control the macroeconomy.

B. Monetary policy would be completely eliminated as a tool to control the macroeconomy.

C. Fluctuations in GDP would become less severe.

D. The government spending multiplier would be effectively set to 1.0.

E. The marginal propensity to consume would be cut in half.

47.The total value of T-bonds, including T-notes and T-bills, in existence at any point in time, is:

A. The federal government spending deficit.

B. The trade deficit.

C. Less than government spending.

D. Necessarily less than GDP.

E. The national debt.

48. Which of the following would be a valid statement about a government plan to eliminate a trade deficit

A. A decrease in the trade deficit will decrease investment in the country.

B. An effective strategy would be to increase the money supply and increase the value of the national currency.

C. An effective strategy would be to increase interest rates and increase the value of the national currency.

D. This could be achieved through dramatically increasing aggregate supply.

E. The increase in net exports will result in a decrease in aggregate demand.

49. Crowding out has the effect(s) of:

A. Reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy if crowding out occurs in financial markets.

B. Decreasing the value of a nationâs currency if the crowding out occurs in financial markets.

C. Increasing the effectiveness of fiscal policy if the crowding out occurs in financial markets and increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy if the crowding out occurs in product markets.

D. Decreasing the effectiveness of fiscal policy if the crowding out occurs in financial markets and decreasing the effectiveness of both fiscal and monetary policy if the crowding out occurs in product markets.

E. Increasing the price of government bonds if the crowding out occurs in financial markets.

50. Which of the following will make crowding out in credit markets more severe?

A. A steep investment demand curve

B. A global credit market

C. Tax increases

D. A steep supply curve in the loanable funds market

E. None of the above

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ECON 102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 21: Aggregate Demand, Government Spending, John Maynard Keynes

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