FNBU 3221 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Risk Neutral, Risk-Seeking, Standard Deviation

Fill in the blank using a number of terms listed below (@1 point per question).

Beta coefficient, Bonds, CAPM, Cash flows, Change, CV, Convertible bonds, Correlation, Correlation coefficient, Debenture, Discount, Diversifiable risk, Expected return, Interest rate risk, Inverted, Junk Bonds, Market risk, More, Normal, Opposite, Probability distribution, Ratings, Reinvestment rate risk, Risk, Risk averse investor, Risk premium, Standard deviation

______________is the chance that some unfavorable event will occur. For instance, the risk of an asset is essentially the chance that the asset’s cash flows will be unfavorable or less than expected.

A __________________ is a listing, chart or graph of all possible outcomes, such as expected rates of return, with a probability assigned to each outcome.

The ______________________is a statistical measure of the variability of a set of observations. The variance of the probability distribution is the sum of the squared deviations about the expected value adjusted for deviation.

The _______________________ is equal to the standard deviation divided by the expected return; it is a standardized risk measure which allows comparisons between investments having different expected returns and standard deviations.

A _______________________ dislikes risk and requires a higher rate of return as an inducement to buy riskier securities. A realized return is the actual return an investor receives on their investment. It can be quite different than their _______________________.

A ________________ is the difference between the rate of return on a risk-free asset and the expected return on Stock i which has higher risk.

_________________ is a model based upon the proposition that any stock’s required rate ofreturn is equal to the risk free rate of return plus a risk premium reflecting onl y the risk remaining after diversification.

_________________ is the tendency of two variables to move together. A _________________ of +1.0 means that the two variables move up and down in perfect synchronization, while a coefficient of -1.0 means the variables always move in opposite directions.

_________________ is that part of a security’s total risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification. It is measured by the beta coefficient. _________________ is also known as company specific risk. This risk can be eliminated by proper diversification.

The _________________ is a measure of a stock’s market risk, or the extent to which the returns on a given stock move with the stock market.

[1] The explicit costs, such as the legal expenses, associated with corporate default are classified as _____ costs.
[A] beta conversion
[B] direct bankruptcy
[C] indirect bankruptcy

[2] An indirect cost of bankruptcy is the loss of key employees.
[A] True
[B] False

[3] A legal attempt to financially restructure a failing firm so that it can continue operating as a going concern is called a reorganization.
[A] True
[B] False

[4] The optimal capital structure has been achieved when the:
[A] weight of equity is equal to the weight of debt.
[B] debt-to-equity ratio selected results in the lowest possible weighted average cost of capital.
[C] cost of equity is maximized.

[5] The optimal capital structure will tend to include more debt for firms with:
[A] less taxable income.
[B] lower probability of financial distress.
[C] substantial tax shields from other sources.

[6] The optimal capital structure of a firm:
[A] will remain constant over time unless the firm makes an acquisition.
[B] will be the same for all firms in the same industry.
[C] will vary over time as taxes and market conditions change.

[7] In a world with corporate taxes, MM theory implies that that all firms should choose an all-debt capital structure.
[A] True
[B] False

[8] A firm is technically insolvent when:
[A] the value of its stock declines by more than 50 percent in any given 12-month period.
[B] the value of the firm's assets is less than the value of the firm's liabilities.
[C] it is unable to meet its financial obligations.

[9] Which one of the following statements is correct concerning a Chapter 7 bankruptcy?
[A] A firm reorganizes its operations in an effort to return to being a viable concern.
[B] A trustee will assume control of the firm's assets until those assets can be liquidated.

[10] If the net present value of a project is positive (non-zero), then the project's internal rate of return will exceed its required rate of return.
[A] True
[B] False

[11] Which one of these methods uses accounting values rather than financial values?
[A] AAR
[B] IRR
[C] NPV

[12] An investment should be accepted if the NPV is positive and rejected if it is negative.
[A] True
[B] False

[13] The length of time required for an investment to generate cash flows sufficient to recover the initial cost of the investment is called the:
[A] net present value.
[B] payback period.
[C] internal rate of return.

[14] An investment is acceptable if its average accounting return (AAR):
[A] exceeds the target AAR.
[B] is less than the target AAR.

[15] The discount rate that makes the net present value of an investment exactly equal to zero is called the internal rate of return.
[A] True
[B] False

[16] The most valuable investment given up if an alternative investment is chosen is referred to as a(n):
[A] sunk cost.
[B] opportunity cost.
[C] erosion cost.

[17] The cost of test marketing a product prior to deciding whether or not to produce the product is a sunk cost.
[A] True
[B] False

[18] An asset will be depreciated faster using MACRS rather than the straight-line method.
[A] True
[B] False

[19] The financial break-even point determines which one of these values?
[A] Fixed costs
[B] Variable cost per unit
[C] Sales quantity

[20] The return earned in an average year over a multi-year period is called the _____ average return.
[A] arithmetic
[B] standard
[C] geometric

[21] The capital gains yield plus the dividend yield on a security is called the:
[A] geometric return.
[B] total return.
[C] variance of returns.

[22] Which one of the following is an example of a nondiversifiable risk?
[A] A poorly managed firm suddenly goes out of business due to lack of sales
[B] A key employee of a firm suddenly resigns and accepts employment with a key competitor
[C] A well respected chairman of the Federal Reserve suddenly resigns

[23] Beta values are highly dependent on the covariance of a security with the market.
[A] True
[B] False

[24] Insider trading does not offer any advantages if the financial markets are:
[A] inefficient.
[B] semiweak form efficient.
[C] strong form efficient.

[25] MM Propositions ignore bankruptcy costs.
[A] True
[B] False

Develop a high-level funding schedule for a new venture business concept that can be used to discuss cash requirements for the first year of operations with prospective investors. The schedule should be prepared on a monthly basis and should include the following specific details:

(1.) Headcount plan - including all personnel needed to carry out the critical operations of the business for the upcoming year.

(2.) Forecast general & administrative expenses, including office rent and related costs, utilities, communication expenses, insurance, filing fees, etc.

(3.) Estimate the cost of how you plan to market the company/product.

(4.) Develop your revenue model, including key assumptions and variables such as unit sales, sales growth, number of customers by the end of the year, product pricing, etc., Make the model flexible enough to enable you to change key variables and run “what if” analyses.

(5.) If the cost of delivering your product of service is significant, forecast the cost of goods sold based upon estimate costs and the product assumptions used in item 4 above.

(6.) After preparing the initial financial plan, critically review the plan and assumptions (including having advisors and other management team members review the plan for reasonableness). Adjust the month-to-month results to “normalize” the cash balance (and ensure it never runs below $0), adjusting discretionary expenses if necessary.

(It can be any business venture as in a resturant or a store)

Upon completion of the financial model, answer the following questions:

Question 1

How much cash do you need to raise to operate during the first 12 months of operations? Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences. (about 150 words)

Question 2

Does the amount of cash needed in item 1 above fall within the “reasonableness range” for an early stage company (i.e., up to $5 million)? Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences. (about 150 words)

Question 3

What is your monthly cash burn rate - both gross and net burn (gross burn is the average of total expenses each month; net burn is gross burn offset by the average monthly cash generated from revenues). Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences. (about 150 words)

Question 4

How long will you be able to operate at the end of the 12 months forecast before you need to raise additional funding? Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences. (about 150 words)

Question 5

Please attach a copy of the Financial Model that you created for this assignment.

EXAMPLE

How much cash do you need to raise to operate during the first 12 months of operations? Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences.

As I plan to operate a restaurant with a nice ambiance I would require premises, renovation and internal decor, furniture, electric setup, a couple of computers, staff, their uniforms, chefs, food supply, tables, chairs and couches, brochures and menu cards, marketing and advertising. Premises and land= $196.3K Renovation and internal decor= $49K Furniture, tables and chair= $20K Staff(2 waiters 1 on the counter 2 cooks)= $16K Uniforms, brochures, menu cards= $500 Food supply= Everyday return, so not included. Marketing and advertising= $20K


Does the amount of cash needed in item 1 above fall within the “reasonableness range” for an early stage company (i.e., up to $5 million)? Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences.

Total required amount is $301.8K which falls under the reasonable range.

What is your monthly cash burn rate - both gross and net burn (gross burn is the average of total expenses each month; net burn is gross burn offset by the average monthly cash generated from revenues). Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences.

Three workers at $200 per month and two workers of $300 per month (That's what the salaries are where I live). $1,200 salary, $300 for the electric, maintenance, gas and marketing etc every month. If in the starting months 20 people visits the restaurant and spends at least 7$ per person on food on average, they would bring $140 revenue everyday and in 30 days, $4,200, which is the revenue generated including 60% profit that the food items would generate. $2625 on the food that is being sold. A total of $4,125 is expected to be spent in the first few months, which is the gross burn. The $2,625 food that is sold will at least give 60% profit, that's calculated to be $1575. So the revenue earned each month for a first few months would be $4,200. This estimates that the net burn would be something around (4,125-4200) viz "-$75" every month for a first few months. The negative sign shows it's a profit, and that even at the estimated value their would be some room (of $75) for the accounts to balance and the venture to not fall off into loss. This is the minimum sale calculation which shows no loss. 20 people to visit in one day is a very small figure. Such a business offers an everyday recovery.

How long will you be able to operate at the end of the 12 months forecast before you need to raise additional funding? Please include your numeric answer and an explanation of several sentences.


As we will start gaining more costumers due to marketing and best quality provided, we will start making wholesome profits. At the rate of 50 costumers per day shopping at the average of $8 per costumer, we would make a revenue of $400 per day and $12,000 per month, which after deduction of food cost and other bills would give a profit of $3,000 every month, and hopefully at the end of the 12th month we will be making $6000 per month. Such a profit will help recovering the amount invested and in a few more months the business will be able to recover all the investment except the cost of the land and premises, which will of course be there as an asset.