POS 3931r Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Regression Analysis, Theories Of Political Behavior
29 Dec 2017
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Document Summary
In 2012, african americans were more likely to vote than whites; in 2016, black turnout dropped and whites stayed about the same. Turnout for naturalized hispanics and asians higher than us citizens, not in total. Theory: generalized explanation for behavior or outcome of interest. Hypothesis: tentative statement that follows from theory (if, then) Data: resource theory of turnout suggests that education should be an important in uence. Regression analysis is a non experimental, statistical approach to try to hold other factors (i. e. variables) constant. Political behavior research often relies on regression analysis of observational data from (random sample) surveys of people. In particular, you must control for other variables that are correlated with both your focal independent variable and the dv. Turnout is a 2-stage process in the us: registration (stage 1); voting (stage 2) ~70% of us citizens are registered to vote.
