QTM 100 Lecture 7: Probability

• School: Emory University
• Department: Quantitative Theory & Methods
• Course: QTM 100
• Professor: Jacobson Jeremy

Document Summary

Probabilistic reading underlies many of the facts and figures we are faced with daily. A new cancer treatment is successful for 40% of patients. The probability that i will win the lottery is 1 in one million. Need to know what numbers mean and how to interpret theme before proceeding. Each flip yields an outcome (heads or tails) Probability [p(outcome)]: the number of ways of obtaining an outcome divided by the total number of outcomes. Adding the probabilities of the various outcomes all together always equal. Law of large numbers: as the number of observations of a random process. Law of large numbers: as the number of observations of a random process increases, the proportion of occurrences of an outcome eventually approaches the probability of that outcome. Number of observations increase, likelihood of desired outcome increases. Likelihood of winning combined with frequency of event over time approaches probability.