PSYCH 1101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 35: Jim Leyland, Clustering Illusion, Fair Coin

• School: Cornell University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSYCH 1101
• Professor: David Pizarro

Document Summary

Tupac shakur: died friday 13th, 1996: fro(cid:373) a (cid:449)e(cid:271)site outli(cid:374)i(cid:374)g a (cid:272)o(cid:374)spira(cid:272)(cid:455) theor(cid:455) a(cid:271)out tupa(cid:272)"s death. Title of (cid:374)e(cid:449) al(cid:271)u(cid:373): (cid:862)the (cid:1011) da(cid:455) theor(cid:455)(cid:863) Shot on september 7th and survived until the 13th (7 day theory) Tupa(cid:272)"s al(cid:271)u(cid:373) (cid:862)all e(cid:455)es o(cid:374) me(cid:863) fe(cid:271)ruar(cid:455) 13th, 1996. Coincidence that two dates are exactly 7 months apart. Tupac officially died at 4:03 (7) and died at 25 (7) Is the pope the anti-christ: different (cid:373)ethods at (cid:862)(cid:272)al(cid:272)ulatio(cid:374)s(cid:863) that lead to (cid:1010)(cid:1010)(cid:1010) Friday the 13th, breaking mirrors, black cats: common omens. The human mind is built to detect patterns: origin of these beliefs, evolutionary adaptation, promiscuous in pattern finding. See patterns when there are real patterns or in the absence of patterns. Which series of coin flips is more random: bad at seeing 50/50-ness of coin flips, clustering illusion. The (cid:862)clusteri(cid:374)g illusio(cid:374)(cid:863: aka chance is lumpy, a fair coin can still have long stretches of the same side.