CAS EC 202 Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Ricardian Equivalence, Robert Barro, Real Interest Rate

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The troubliing long-term fiscal outlook: the us population is aging, health care costs are rising, spending on entitlements like social security and medicare is growing, deficits and the debt are projected to significantly increase. Problems measuring the deficit (not on final exam) Inflation: capital assets, uncounted liabilities, the business cycle. The bottom line: we must exercise care when interpreting the reported deficit figures. Is the government debt really a problem: consider a tax cut with corresponding increase in the government debt, two viewpoints, traditional view, ricardian view. Instead, they save the full tax cut in order to repay the future tax liability: result: private saving rises by the amount public saving falls, leaving national saving unchanged. Evidence against ricardian equivalence: early 1980s, reagan tax cuts increased deficit, national saving fell, real interest rate rose, exchange appreciated, and nx fell, 1992:

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