PR 605 Lecture Notes - Lecture 20: Hindsight Bias, Adrenal Gland, Bounded Rationality
16 Dec 2020
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Document Summary
Hindsight bias is the tendency to, even when you know the outcome, falsely believe it in a way that we would have accurately predicted the outcome. We are normally good at concluding obvious outcomes when we receive feedback on them. It"s not likely that we are susceptible to biases to the same degree. Out individual differences play a huge role in our process of making decisions, while out organizations constrain the available choices of decisions and the range we have between them. Influences on decision making: individual differences and organizational constraints. Individual differences, like personality, create deviations from the rational model. Certain facets of conscientiousness can affect the escalation of commitment. Achievement-oriented people don"t like to fail, so they instead escalate their commitment in hope to stall failure. People who are dutiful are more likely to do what they think is best for the organization. This means they are less likely to escalate their own commitment.
