NATS 1700 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Immanence, Command And Control, Intelligence Quotient
6 Apr 2020
School
Department
Course
Professor
NATS 1700 - SUMMARY OF LECTURES 10 and 11
LECTURE 10
THE REAL CONCERNS REGARDING SOFTWARE
What I call the real concerns about new technology software and hardware
are the actual or factual or realities surrounding software and hardware. That is:
they exist as a fact or the fact is real or actual. Thus, whenever I may refer to the
real, factual or actual concerns about new technology software and hardware, I want
you to understand that these concerns are not made up or speculative, they are real
and factual. They always exist in software and hardware, whether we like it or not. It
may be that some of these concerns will change in the future, but for now, they remain
constant.
A first real or factual concern about software and hardware that we must
consider arises as a consequence of Quantum physics itself. You will recall that
Quantum physics is based on probability and uncertainty. This means that at least
one chip or program or piece of hardware out of a vast number of the same chip,
program, or pieces of hardware is going to be effected directly by Quantum
physics. In turn, and unlike the other chips, software or pieces of hardware that were
manufactured with it in exactly the same way, the probability and uncertainty of it
working differently or not working at all is greater that the probability that it will work as it
was intended. The result is a chip, software or a piece of computer hardware that for no
apparent reason does not work at all or works differently its intended purpose. For this
purpose "differently" means either better or worse than the others of its kind.
While Quantum physics is the basis for a real or factual concern about software
and hardware, so too is a concern that can be stated as follows: "All software and
hardware contains bugs". For those of you who have Windows 98, has your
computer frozen from time to time? In all probability it has. The reason is that the
program has bugs which cannot be easily fixed by down-loaded solutions. The defects
or bugs are inherent in the program.
There was a time, in the early development of software (circa 1980's), when
memory was at a premium. Because memory was limited, it became of utmost
importance and programmers spent hours on hours of time attempting to remove as
many of the defects or bugs from these early programs as they could, since each defect
or bug took up memory. This resulted in very well constructed programs which worked
extremely well. From the 1990's onward and because memory began to increase in
dramatic increments, programmers started to become sloppy - they maintained an
attitude that, since there was plenty of memory, they did not have to concentrate on
2
removing the defects or bugs to the same extent that they did before. This attitude has
led to the development of software programs for pubic consumption that have numerous
defects or bugs in them. Programs that appear to look and perform much better than
the older programs, that is, until you get an error message popping up on your screen.
A third real or factual concern about software and hardware is that there is
no universal set of rules guidelines and protocols for programmers to follows in
the development of computer hardware and software programs. While it is true
that each company may have a standard set of rules, guidelines or protocols for its
programmers to adhere to, it does not follow that each and every company has the
same set of rules, guidelines and protocols. This tends to create inconsistencies in
software and hardware within the new technology industry. Programmers are left to
their own resources in developing software as are the companies that manufacture
computer hardware. Without a universal set of rules, guidelines and protocols, there
are no standard formats for testing software and hardware. This lack of standardized
testing further affects the integrity of software and hardware. If you are lucky, it will
work. If you are not lucky, it will not.
The lack of a universal set of rules, guidelines or protocols leads to the
unconscious importation or placing, particularly into software programs, of the
beliefs and philosophies (the "biases") of those who are doing the programming.
A good example of the importation of programming bias into software can be found in a
certain intelligence test that was used in the United States in the 1980's. The test was
developed to measure the intelligence quotient of school children of all backgrounds.
Unfortunately, after a few years of use, it was discovered that white Caucasian children
scored higher on the test than children of other ethnic backgrounds. Investigation into
the matter determined that, inadvertently, the programmers had made certain
assumptions about ethnic minorities which caused these minorities to perform at a lower
level from white Caucasian children. Needless to say, this test was finally scrapped,
because it was unreliable.
Another real concern about software and hardware appears to be fast
becoming an unstated law. Simply put, this concern is that, "ambitious systems
seldom work the way they are supposed to". To put it another way, the more
complex the system, the more apt it is to break down and not to work as it was
intended. Although you may not know it, failures in complex systems are all too
frequent. It is for this reason that this concern or proposition is fast becoming an
unstated law.
The final real or factual concern about software and hardware is one which keeps
popping up throughout numerous areas related to new technology: "overconfidence".
Overconfidence in software and hardware leads the user to believe in it - to trust
implicitly that it will always work, notwithstanding that there nay be problems
with it. This concern goes farther to suggest that even if there are problems with the
hardware or the software they will eventually be overcome. While this may be true,
3
eventually can be too long a time, if the software or hardware fails to perform as
intended, with disastrous consequences.
A good example of the majority, if not all, of the real or factual concerns is a
machine known as the Therac 25. The Therac 25 was an x-ray machine which had
been in use in the United States and Canada for some time. It was used to x-ray and
did x-ray successfully, hundreds of thousands of people. However, once in a while, for
some unknown reason, the machine appeared to freeze or lock. On these occasions,
although the machine appeared not to work at all, what it really did was shoot a highly
concentrated beam of x-rays at the person lying on the table beneath it. After twelve
deaths and a great deal of investigation into what was going on in these isolated cases,
the manufacturer and government investigators found that the software program had an
unknown glitch in it. So long as the technician programming the machine took more
than 30 seconds to set the parameters of the program, the machine worked as
intended, without causing any harm to the patient. However, a technician who had
worked with the machine for a few years could become so familiar with setting up the
program that, in some cases - the fatal cases, the technician programmed the machine
in less than 30 seconds. When this happened the machine froze and sent a
concentrated beam of x-rays at the patient.
Whether you consider the deaths caused by the Therac 25 to result from
programming bias (no good technician could program the machine in less than 30
seconds); or from a lack of a universal set of rules, guidelines and protocols; or from
overconfidence in what the machine could do; or because the program was complex
and complex systems seldom work the way they are intended, the fact is that people
died, all because of one form or another of the real or factual concerns about software
and hardware.
You will recall the fact situation that I provided at the end of Lecture 2. Having
the information in this lecture available to you now, consider it again. Hopefully, you will
begin to obtain a basic understanding of some of the matters that the fact situation
deals with. As you consider the fact situation, keep in mind the notion or proposition
that nothing is for free - everything has a cost attached to it or everything comes with a
cost that is either apparent or hidden.
Summary: of the Real Factual Actual Concerns:
1. Quantum physics; probability means that it will work better, worse, differently or
not at all;
2. All software and hardware have bugs/defects;
3. No universal set of rules, protocols or guidelines for programmers;
4. Number 3 leads to programming bias;
Document Summary
Nats 1700 - summary of lectures 10 and 11. What i call the real concerns about new technology software and hardware are the actual or factual or realities surrounding software and hardware. That is: they exist as a fact or the fact is real or actual. Thus, whenever i may refer to the real, factual or actual concerns about new technology software and hardware, i want you to understand that these concerns are not made up or speculative, they are real and factual. They always exist in software and hardware, whether we like it or not. It may be that some of these concerns will change in the future, but for now, they remain constant. A first real or factual concern about software and hardware that we must consider arises as a consequence of quantum physics itself. Quantum physics is based on probability and uncertainty.
