ADMS 3300 Lecture 6: Week 6 Ch 8
7 Jul 2016
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We will learn the principles behind information valuation. Chronic health evaluation). (cid:61607) apache iii evaluates the patient(cid:8217)s risk as a probability of dying either in the icu or later in the hospital. If decision analysis is to be precise and rigorous, it must operate with numbers, not verbal phrases, for probabilities. Also, verbal representations of uncertainty are subject to varied interpretations depending on people and contexts. Contingencies,(cid:8221) provides guidance to companies on reporting various kinds of losses that might happen. Probability = relative frequency of occurrence of an event. Frequentist definition requires one to specify a repeatable experiment. Without doubt the above events are uncertain and we talk about the probability of these events. These probabilities however they are not relative frequencies of occurrences. Probability = degree of belief in the occurrence of an event. By assessing a probability for the events above, one expresses one"s degree of belief. High probabilities coincide with a high degree of belief.
