ADMS 2511 Lecture 22: ADMS 2511 Lecture 22 Notes
1 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
ADMS 2511 Lecture 22 Notes – Overconfidence Bias
Introduction
• There is only a split second to do anything after the kick, so anticipating and acting seem
like a good decision.
• Azar eae iterested i studig goalie ehaiour after realizig that the ieties
are huge for the goalie to get it right.
• Goalkeepers fae pealt kiks regularl, so the are ot ol high-motivated decision
akers, ut also er eperieed oes, he explains.
• That said, 80 percent of penalty kicks score, so goalies are in a difficult situation at that
instant when the kick goes off.
• Azar’s stud foud that goalies rarel staed i the etre of the et as the all as fired
(just 6.3 percent of the time).
• But staying in the centre is actually the best strategy. Goalies halted penalty kicks when
staying in the centre 33.3 percent of the time.
• They were successful only 14.2 percent of the time when they moved left and only 12.6
percent of the time when they moved right.
• Azar argues that the results sho that there is a ias for atio, eplaiig that goalies
think they will feel worse if they do nothing and miss, than if they do something and
miss.
• This bias then clouds their judgment, encouraging them to move to one side or the
other, rather than just staying in the centre, where the odds are actually more in their
favor.
• Recent research continues to conclude that we tend to be overconfident about our
abilities and about the abilities of others
• Also, that we are usually not aware of this bias.
• It’s ee said that o prole i judget ad deisio akig is ore prealet ad
ore potetiall atastrophi tha oerofidee.
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
