BU288 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Decision-Making, Base Rate Fallacy, Bounded Rationality
Document Summary
Problem: a perceived gap between an existing state and a desired state. Decision making is a process of problem solving; involves perception of existing & desired state, and the steps needed to move from one state to the other. Well-structured problem: a problem for which the existing state is clear, the desired state is clear, and how to get from one state to the other is fairly obvious use programming. Ill-structured problem: a problem for which the existing and desired states are unclear and the method of getting to the desired state is unknown. Unique, complex problems with high uncertainty; raise controversy & conflict among those interested in the decision. Gather more info and be self-consciously analytical in our approach to solving such problems. The compleat decision maker rational decision-making model. Ide(cid:374)tif(cid:455) the p(cid:396)o(cid:271)le(cid:373), sea(cid:396)(cid:272)h fo(cid:396) i(cid:374)fo to (cid:272)la(cid:396)if(cid:455) the p(cid:396)o(cid:271)le(cid:373)"s (cid:374)atu(cid:396)e, suggest alte(cid:396)(cid:374)ati(cid:448)e solutio(cid:374)s, evaluate the choices, pick the best, & implement.
