Psychology 3130A/B Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Probability Theory, Decision-Making, Daniel Kahneman

• School: Western University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: Psychology 3130A/B
• Professor: John Paul Minda

Document Summary

5% to 20% of the population gets the flu; 3,500 deaths in canada each year. (several in london last year) A pretty good chance of getting the flu: no cases in canada, 3 in the usa, graph: risks, overall likelihood of something bad happening, contagious/not contagious. Essentially no chance, yet many americans at the time were way more worried about it than the flu. Both flu and ebola equally contagious, since outcomes are way more dangerous affect people"s decisions. Understanding the base rates, uncertainty, potential risks and outcomes = affects thinking. Probability is the study of likelihood and uncertainty. A normative theory a standard by which we can measure behaviour. In contrast, a descriptive theory will describe how people actually behave: baron (probability theorist and psychologist) Frequency theories probability judgements are made on the basis of past frequency/information observational: what one can remember past information about flu requires knowledge of past frequency in order to work.