Psychology 2135A/B Lecture Notes - Lecture 18: Daniel Kahneman, Bank Teller, Woodworking

• School: Western University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: Psychology 2135A/B
• Professor: John Paul Minda

Document Summary

Probability is the study of likelihood and uncertainty: people like certain. A normative theory: a standard by which we can measure behavior. In contrast, a descriptive theory will describe how people actually behave. The way in which people generally behave. Degree to which people don"t act on actual probabilities. Over the long run: 0 it can never happen, 1 it must always happen. What is probability of heads: 1 desired outcome, 2 possible outcomes, =0. 5, over 100 tosses about 50 will be heads. If you get 10 hs in a row, what is more likely, another head or a tail. Rolling a number less than 4 on a die: 3 desired outcomes, 6 possible outcomes, 3/6=0. 5. What is the probability of getting two heads in a row (cid:498)and(cid:499) rule: multiply the probabilities, each event is independent, 0. 5*0. 5=0. 25. What is the probability of getting 2hs or 2ts (cid:498)or(cid:499) rule: add the probabilities, 0. 25+0. 25-0. 5.