POLS 2300 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Demographic Transition, Infant Mortality
14 Jun 2018
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UNDERSTANDING POPULATION DYNAMICS
World Population
• 10,000BC there was an estimated 5 million people
• Today there is a little under 7.5 billion
• Grows exponentially, within 15 years we have added 1 billion people.
Demographic Transition Model
High Stationary: High birth rate, High death rate, stable population growth (rural,
traditional, death rates of kids under age of 5, high infant mortality, Life expectancy is
around 30, need for large families, no availability of birth control
Early Expanding: High birth rate, death rate drops rapidly, population growth still
increases rapidly (Developing countries during colonialism, start to have a better
understanding of disease and public sanitation, medical infrastructure is better)
Late Expanding: Birth rate drops, death rate remains low, population slowly grows
(cultural attitudes change, overall health improves, women entire work force, women
educate themselves, women gain rights, people delay their first child)
Low Stationary: Birth rate is low, death rate is stable and low, population growth rate
levels off and doesn’t grow and in some cases it actually drops.
Replacement Fertility Rate: what the fertility rate needs to be to replace the parents, 2.1
children per woman (2 because you have to replace the parents, added 0.1 to count
for infant mortality after birth because not every child reaches the productive age)
**If it weren’t for immigration, US would not have enough people for replacement.
Russia has a declining population.
find more resources at oneclass.com
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Document Summary
World population: 10,000bc there was an estimated 5 million people, grows exponentially, within 15 years we have added 1 billion people. Today there is a little under 7. 5 billion. High stationary: high birth rate, high death rate, stable population growth (rural, traditional, death rates of kids under age of 5, high infant mortality, life expectancy is around 30, need for large families, no availability of birth control. Early expanding: high birth rate, death rate drops rapidly, population growth still increases rapidly (developing countries during colonialism, start to have a better understanding of disease and public sanitation, medical infrastructure is better) Late expanding: birth rate drops, death rate remains low, population slowly grows (cultural attitudes change, overall health improves, women entire work force, women educate themselves, women gain rights, people delay their first child) Low stationary: birth rate is low, death rate is stable and low, population growth rate levels off and doesn"t grow and in some cases it actually drops.
