POL222H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Operationalization, Falsifiability
22 Nov 2018
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Document Summary
A tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of interest. A theory-based statement about a relationship that we expect to observe. A process in which scientists evaluate the empirical evidence systematically to see whether the evidence. Causal theory: dependent variable (y) - a phenomenon of interest, independent variable (x) (or explanatory variable) - the cause/factor of the phenomenon, explanation/mechanism/process that links your independent and dependent variables. Voters try to hold the government party accountable for the consequence of its economic policy. They punish the government party for poor economic performance at the national level and reward it for good performance. Theory: a statement described in terms of abstract concepts. Hypothesis: we need to transform an abstract theory into a more concrete statement testable with actual data --- something observable in the real world. Real gdp growth -------------------- government party"s vote share.
