PHL246H1 Lecture Notes - Rudolf Carnap
Document Summary
Consider two objects, viz. today and tomorrow, and one property they can have, viz. whether or not the sun rises on them. In carnap"s terminology these are four state descriptions . They give rise to three structure descriptions : z1 = the sun rises on both days; z2 = the sun rises on exactly one day; z3 = the sun rises on no day. Carnap thought we should assign the same probability to each of the three structure descriptions: Pr_c({s1}) = pr_c({s2, s3}) = pr_c({s4}) = 1/3 and pr_c({s2}) = pr({s3}) = 1/6. Wittgenstein thought we should assign the same probability to each of the four state descriptions: First, observe whether or not the sun has risen today and write down your observational result: (hint: it is either {s1, s2} or {s3, s4}. ) (1 point) Second, compute the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow given your observational result for both the carnap probability pr_c and the wittgenstein probability pr_w:
