ECO322H1 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Regression Analysis
Lecture 6 – ECO322
The Causes of Prairie Settlement:
The National Policy:
- John Dales said that settlement didn’t happen until after 1900 while the Homestead Policy and
railway were there by 1883; couldn’t have been it
- Martin says homestead grants had no effect on Prairie settlement and it wasn’t cheap land that
caused the settlement
- Fowke says that the high tariffs and the CPR’s land grants inhibited settlement
A Conjunction of Forces (John Dales):
1) Prices in general and price of wheat increase after 1896
2) Transport costs fell dramatically
3) Scarcity of land in the USA by the late 1880s (due to lack of pre-emptive clause)
4) Technological changes reduced costs and shortened growing season for wheat
5) Outflow of capital and labor from Europe drives Prairie settlement
FINAL START:
Introduction of Dry-Farming Techniques (Ken Norrie):
- Concludes that Prairie settlement began in 1896 via regression analysis
- Eliminates possibility of Crow’s Nest Pass Agreement as a cause
- Norrie attacks Dales’ explanation systematically:
1) The price of wheat did not rise from 1870-1892; dropped from 1898-1908; only rose
from 1893-1898 and 1903-1905; real price of wheat fell as prices in general rose; maybe
affected settlement from 1896 to 1898, but not later
2) Transport rates were falling from 1870 to 1904, no substantial change in 1896
3) No shortage of land in the US west
4) Technological inventions like the steel-tipped plough were invented well before 1896
5) Emigration was only significant after 1900, not 1896; capital inflows not significant until
1905
Dry-farming
- There wasn’t enough moisture in the Prairie lands west of the 100th meridian
- That was an area that was semi-arid as opposed to Manitoba that was sub-humid
- There was not enough precipitation to make prairie farming sustainable every year
- method of dry-farming was innovative: left half the land uncultivated to allow it to absorb
enough moisture
- Dry-farming was more expensive than regular farming because it needed deeper ploughing and
double the land
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Document Summary
John dales said that settlement didn"t happen until after 1900 while the homestead policy and railway were there by 1883; couldn"t have been it. Martin says homestead grants had no effect on prairie settlement and it wasn"t cheap land that caused the settlement. Fowke says that the high tariffs and the cpr"s land grants inhibited settlement. Concludes that prairie settlement began in 1896 via regression analysis. Eliminates possibility of crow"s nest pass agreement as a cause. There wasn"t enough moisture in the prairie lands west of the 100th meridian. That was an area that was semi-arid as opposed to manitoba that was sub-humid. There was not enough precipitation to make prairie farming sustainable every year. Method of dry-farming was innovative: left half the land uncultivated to allow it to absorb enough moisture. Dry-farming was more expensive than regular farming because it needed deeper ploughing and double the land.
