MGEC81H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Gross Domestic Product, Forecast Error, Job Scheduler
17 Oct 2020
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Document Summary
Inputs to the forecasting model include airline specials, federal reserve policies, wall. Street trends, vacation/holiday schedules for 3000 school districts around the world: average forecast error for the five-year forecast is 5, average forecast error for annual forecasts is between 0% and 3% What is forecasting: process of predicting a future event, underlying basis of all business decisions, production, inventory, personnel, facilities. Short-range forecast: up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months, purchasing, job scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments, production levels. Medium-range forecast: 3 months to 3 years, sales and production planning, budgeting. Economic forecasts: address business cycle inflation rate, money supply, housing starts, etc. Technological forecasts: predict rate of technological progress. Steps in forecasting: determine the use of the forecast, select the items to be forecasted, determine the time horizon of the forecast, select the forecasting model(s, gather the data and make the forecast, validate and implement results.
