MAT 2379 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Conditional Probability, Biostatistics, Bayes Estimator
15 Dec 2015
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Document Summary
Consider again the example with a group of 100 german men of which 70 have blond hair, 77 have blue eyes and 55 have blond hair and blue eyes. Suppose that we select randomly a man in the group of people which have blond hair (i. e. suppose that we already know that the selected person has blond hair). Because we make our selection in the restricted group of 70 blond hair people and in this group only 55 satisfy the requirement of having blue eyes, the desired probability is. This is called the conditional probability of the event b: the selected person has blue eyes given the event a: the selected person has blond hair . This probability shows us that there is a great degree of dependence between the two events. In general, the formula for calculating the conditional probability is.
