ADM 2304 Lecture Notes - Lecture 19: Confounding, Dependent And Independent Variables, Random Variable

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This phenomenon is quite common and has been called regression towards the mean . That is the prediction tends to be less removed from the mean than the independent variable. Tall fathers have tall sons but not quite as tall as themselves and short fathers tend to have short sons but not quite as short as themselves. Students who do well on the midterm tend to do well on the nal but not quite as well and students who do poorly on the midterm tend to do poorly on the nal but not quite as poorly. There is an explanation for the rst example (namely the confounding factor is the mother"s height) but not for the second . Extrapolation is the use of a regression line for prediction far outside the range of values of the explanatory variable x used to obtain the line.

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