POLI 220 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Agriculture In Argentina, Market Liquidity, Foreign Exchange Controls
Document Summary
Modernization is the exogenous variable of democratization (causal. If a poor country becomes democratic, it is more likely to fall back to dictatorship: democracy citizens are guaranteed some minimal standard of living key; both views predict that increased wealth helps democratic survival. Modernisation theory transition to democracy becomes more likely as income increases regime transitions may or may not become less likely as countries become richer (sum slope for both types of transitions) Overall there seems to be evidence in support of survival theory, because poor countries seem to experience more transitions than rich ones. Instead of looking at the raw number of transitions (doenst work because there are so many poorer countries- ratio would be bad) , it is better to look at transition probabilities. Pr(regime transition at income level)= number of transitions to democracy or dictatorship/ number of countries years: at low incomes, the transitions are basically to dictatorship.
