PLAN105 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Delphi Method, Collaborative Software, Time Series

• School: University of Waterloo
• Department: Planning
• Course: PLAN105
• Professor: Clarence Woudsma

Document Summary

Methods of forecasting: mixture of art and science , analytical approaches tempered by uncertainty (cid:523) the (cid:498)art(cid:499)(cid:524, often about fitting models to known data/behaviours ( the past) but does it make. Qualitative approaches to forecasting: qualitative forecasting methods are based on educated opinions of appropriate persons and are reflected in the following methods. Variables in regression example: and can be used for prediction -- how does variable y (cid:498)respond(cid:499) to changes in variable (cid:498)x(cid:499) Snowboard sales snowfall: vehicle sales unemployment, gpa hours of employment. )dentify (cid:498)response(cid:499) vs. (cid:498)explanatory(cid:499: e. g. examining canada"s population over the last (cid:883)(cid:882)(cid:882) years, establish coefficients of a is the constant (intercept) b the coefficient or regression slope, e. g. Canada"s population in (cid:883)966 = : e. g canada"s population in (cid:884)(cid:882)(cid:885)6 = , population = a + b x (where x represents the year, pop = -390495 + 209. 8 (x)