PSY 308 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Congenital Disorder, Bounded Rationality, Base Rate Fallacy

• School: Ryerson University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSY 308
• Professor: Jonathan Wilbiks

Document Summary

A measure of how often we expect an event to occur in the long run. Probability of an event refers to the number of ways the outcome can occur divided by the number of possible outcomes (when each outcome is equally likely) We can"t really calculate the probability of things in real life. Subjective probability: refers to personal estimates of the likelihood of events. Objective probability: a mathematically determined statement of likelihood about known frequencies. Any number 1 through 6: 6/6 = 1 . 0. Determining the probability of one event and another event occurring together, we multiply their separate probabilities. The and rule: a x b = probability of a and b. Probability of two particular numbers in two rolls (e. g. , 5 on roll 1 and a 6 on roll 2) : 1/6 x 1/6 = 0. 0278 . 03. Determining the probability of one event or another event occurring together, we add their separate probabilities.