PSYCH 2H03 Lecture Notes - Lecture 26: Deductive Reasoning, Belief Perseverance, Syllogism
22 Mar 2017
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People think after the fact that they would have known something before the fact when they really wouldn"t have. Turning vague statements into solid predictions after the fact. I knew it all along; i told you so; hindsight is 20/20. Group 2 was told to ignore the actual diagnosis: doctors who already knew the diagnosis assigned probabilities to the diagnosis three times higher than did the doctors who didn"t know the diagnosis. Even though the actual diagnosis was the least likely disease, given the symptoms. People, on average, think they are better than average. Of course, it is impossible for everyone to be better than average. Notable exception: the clinically depressed do not believe they are better than average, and show depressive realism. Illusions of covariation: people project their own prior theories onto the data and see only the patterns they expect to see (e. g. interpreting rorschach tests)
