POLSCI 4CA3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Knightian Uncertainty, Thomas Kuhn, Global Health
30 Nov 2020
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Introduce two ways of thinking about where uncertainty arises from and how to understand it (blyth & naughton) Discuss the implications of uncertainty for exploring the role of ideas (jacobs & Policy causation involves considerable complexity (complexity undermines confidence) Policy is derived of politics; long-term success of a policy promise may need to withstand politics (e. g. changes in government) Types of uncertainty: knightian uncertainty, kuhnian uncertainty unsure as to what their interests actually are, let alone how to realize them. Situations regarded by contemporary agents as unique events where agents are. Over long periods of time, anomalies build up that cannot be explained / Paradigm 1 revolutionary phase paradigm 2. Often thought of as an endogenous process addressed by existing ideas or institutions. Political actors cannot know what actions are in their interest. In periods of uncertainty, ideas do not merely reduce uncertainty for agents with pre- existing interests.
