ATOC 185 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Northern Hemisphere, Landfall, Westerlies
8 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Sept
5
-
Intro
Disaster
- DIS - unfavourable
- ASTRO - stars
- Disasters precipitated by stars to ancient peoples
Earthquakes
- local to regional
Floods
- local to regional
Hurricanes
- regional
Tsunamis
- regional to global
Climate
Change
- local, regional, global
Hazard
- potential threat to humans and their welfare
Risk
- probability of loss (deaths, injuries, damage, disruption of economic activity) as a result of a
particular natural event
Vulnerability
- potential loss, degree of loss, from the event (0 = no damage, 1 = total loss)
Disaster
- realization of risk
- a hazardous event affecting a community in an adverse way such that essential social structures
and functions are disrupted
Prediction
and
Forecasting
- Statement that a particular natural hazard will occur:
1. With a given probability
2. During a certain time frame
3. In a specified geographic area
Mitigation
- efforts to reduce or minimize the effects of natural hazards on a community
Risk
of
Death
(Highest
to
Lowest)
-
Car accident, plane crash, hurricane, tornado, lighting, earthquake,
asteroid, volcano
Unpredictability
- Mother nature is non-deterministic
- Individual events are inherently unpredictable
- This requires a statistical approach such as probabilities, since we don’t fully understand many
natural processes
Recurrence
Intervals
and
Probabilities
-Recurrence
Interval
- average time between the occurrence of two events given magnitude
- ex. a flood of 6 meters which happens once every 50 years on average, an earthquake of
magnitude 5 which happens once every 10 years on average
- Flood Probability : 1 in 50 chance a flood will occur in any one year = 2% probability of
occurrence each year
- Earthquake Probability : 1 in 10 chance earthquake will occur in any year = 10% probability of
occurrence
Geology
- The scientific study of the solid Earth including the materials that makeup the planet and the
processes that shape the planet
- Three broad fields:
1. Physical
Geology
- examines materials composing the earth to understand the processes
that operate both beneath and on the surface
2. Historical
Geology
- aims to understand the origin of earth and its development through
time (study of rock strata, fossils, geologic events utilizing the geologic time scale)
3. Environmental
Geology
- studies interaction between humans and the geological
environment
- Why do we study geology?
- Curiosity about our planet and our relationship with the Earth system (geosphere,
hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere)
- Locate and develop geological resources, such as fossil fuels, industrial minerals, water
- Use of the geological environment for waste disposal in order to minimize problems of
contamination and pollution
- Recognition of natural hazards and mitigation of their human impacts (volcanoes,
earthquakes, floods, etc.)
- Some
geologic
hazards
that
change
the
surface
of
the
earth
and
pose
a
direct
threat
to
human
survival
:
plate tectonics, earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides and avalanches
Every year 250 million people are affected by natural disasters
International communities spent 3 billion dollars to help mitigate the impacts of these disasters
Poorest societies are the most affected (poverty, illness, vulnerability)
Sept
7
-
Hurricanes
Why
do
we
care?
- High winds, Heavy rains, Injuries and loss of life, Economic losses
Deadliest
Tropical
Cyclone
in
History
- Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh 1970 (300,000-500,000 deaths)
- 6 of the 10 deadliest cyclones in history have been in Bangladesh
Bangladesh
- Extremely high population density
- Mostly 20 or less meters above sea level - very low community
- Potential for flooding is high
Deadliest
storm
in
the
Atlantic
Basin:
1780 (22,000)
Deadliest
US
storm
-
Galveston
Hurricane:
1900 (8,000)
- Of the 10 deadliest US storms, one has occurred since 1957: Katrina 2005 (1833 dead)
-Was often due to poor city planning and officials didn’t work together to provide efficient
capability to evacuate
-Katrina had an impact on Atlantic Canada with heavy rains as the storm brewed in the St
Lawrence River
Deadliest
storm
in
Canada
-
Newfoundland
1775
(4,000 deaths)
Economic
Impacts
- Rebuilding of damaged infrastructure
- Cost of evacuation
- Risks involved with taking car, limited gas, dangers
- Impact on energy production
- Cost of severe coastal erosion
- Most
expensive
hurricanes
in
US
: 1. Katrina ($153.8 billion), 2. Sandy, 3. Andrew, 4. Ike
- Don’t
need
to
know
these
numbers
- Estimates that Hurricane Harvey cost $200 billion
- Term Paper: examine long-term impacts of a hurricane on specific areas
- ex. population of New Orleans has not recovered from all the people who left
during Katrina
- Hurricane Sandy was barley a Category 1 hurricane when it hit New York - storm surge
and flooding fucked it up (not winds)
Document Summary
Disasters precipitated by stars to ancient peoples. Disaster - realization of risk a hazardous event affecting a community in an adverse way such that essential social structures and functions are disrupted. Statement that a particular natural hazard will occur: with a given probability, during a certain time frame. Mitigation - efforts to reduce or minimize the effects of natural hazards on a community. Risk of death (highest to lowest) - car accident, plane crash, hurricane, tornado, lighting, earthquake, asteroid, volcano. This requires a statistical approach such as probabilities, since we don"t fully understand many natural processes. The scientific study of the solid earth including the materials that makeup the planet and the processes that shape the planet. Use of the geological environment for waste disposal in order to minimize problems of contamination and pollution. Every year 250 million people are affected by natural disasters. International communities spent 3 billion dollars to help mitigate the impacts of these disasters.
