8246 Lecture 9: Lecture 9 - Professor Peter Leahy
5 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
National Security – Lecture 9
Insurgency
"An armed uprising or revolt against an established civil or political authority."
"An organised movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through use of
subversion and armed conflict."
Political Legitimacy
• Trust and acceptance.
• Locke - the government is not legitimate unless it is carried on with the consent of the
governed.
• Hobbes - societies formed because of fear of violent death and their desire for peace.
Restrictions on liberty are accepted in exchange for benefits.
The Record
• Gauls
• French Revolution
• Spanish against Napoleon
• Lawrence of Arabia
• Lenin
• Partisans in Yugoslavia
• Mao Zedong
• Castro
• British in Palestine
• French in Vietnam and Algeria
• US in Vietnam and Somalia
• Russia in Afghanistan
• Israel in Lebanon and Gaza
Beyond Politics
• Most conflicts today are intrastate.
• Contract between people and government is broken.
• If government cannot meet the expectations of the people tensions will build.
• Replace the existing political and social order or break away from the state.
• Insurgent has the initiative.
Modern Insurgencies
• Post Colonial or Nationalist
• Ideological
• Economic and social disparities
Here to Stay
• Fragmentation of societies
• Poor economic performance and prospects
• Contests over political legitimacy
• Failed for failing states
• Religious tensions and intolerance
• Losers from globalisation
• Use of insurgencies as a proxy instead of larger state on state war
States at Risk
• Limited political legitimacy or trust in the government
• Little to unite the people
• Large minority groups
• Economies is underdeveloped and wealth is poorly distributed
• Impact of globalisation
Why is Australia Interested
• In fulfilment of treaties and alliances
• To maintain alliance relationships
• To support allies and friends
• To prevent the spill over of unrest reaching our shores
• To resist the spread of ideologies we do not agree with
• To resist aggression
• To support communities in need
Our Track Record
• Indonesia
• Malaya
• Konfrontasi
• Vietnam
• Somalia
• Rwanda
• Iraq
• Solomon Islands
• Cambodia
• East Timor
• Afghanistan
• Tonga
• Darfur
• Evacuations
• Among populations, long term and the military are not the solution
COIN - A Sneak Peak
• Difficult to find successful events
• Hard to carry forward universal lessons
• Required patience and resources
• Solution is political, social, economic and security framework
Why Men Rebel
• Ted Robert Gurr
• "Discontent is not a function of the discrepancy between what men want and what they
have but between what they want and what believe they are capable of attaining."
Revolutionary Preconditions
• Incoherence of the governing regime
• High infant mortality rates
• Lack of integration with the global economy
