BAFI1002 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: The Foreign Exchange

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blushspider196

6 Aug 2018

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Us & uk markets account for 50% of the turnover. Allows exchange for the exchange of one currency for another. Price quote: price of foreign currency in terms of domestic currency. The value of a unit of foreign currency in terms of domestic currency. Quantity quote: the quantity of foreign currency for one unit of domestic currency. Value of a unit of domestic currency in terms of foreign currency. The exchange rate is a value of the commodity currency also called base currency. The value of the co(cid:373)(cid:373)odit(cid:455) curre(cid:374)c(cid:455) is e(cid:454)pressed (cid:862)i(cid:374) ter(cid:373)s of(cid:863) the ter(cid:373)s curre(cid:374)c(cid:455) One currency increased or decreased against another currency. Bid is the rate at which the price maker will buy the commodity currency. The offer is the rate at which the price maker will sell the commodity currency. Bid is always less than the offer. Spread is the difference between the bid and offer rates.

Related Questions

1) MARKET EFFICIENCY AND ARBITRAGE

1) Explain briefly the three forms of Market Efficiency (ME) and their consequences. What are the conditions needed in order to have ME? Can you give a simple example of market inefficiency?

2) Consider the following data on the exchange rates in New York and the prices of the same commodity (cocoa) in three different markets.

NOTE. Remember that exchange rates are quoted as the price of the foreign in terms of domestic currency: USD/EU=1.12 (that is: you need 1.12 USD to get 1 EU).

EXCHANGE RATE MARKET

New York (Dollars/Euro) 1.12

London (Dollars/GBP) 1.54

Frankfurt (Euro/GBP) 1.375

STOCK MARKET

Price cocoa NYSE (quoted in dollars) 140

Price cocoa LSE (quoted in GBP) 100

Price cocoa FKT (quoted in Euro) 110

a) Consider the Exchange Rate Market only: Is there any possible arbitrage? Explain your answer

b) Consider both the Exchange Rate Market and the commodity market: Assume no transaction or transportation costs. Show all the possible arbitrages using both markets. Which one is more profitable? What are the consequences for the market prices?

Economic Questions, if you have time, explain why that's the answer:

7A. Assume the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar are traded in flexible currency markets. Which of the following would cause the U.S. dollar to depreciate relative to the Canadian dollar?

A. Higher price level in Canada relative to the United States.

B. Higher interest rates in the United States relative to Canada.

C. Lower interest rates in the United States relative to Canada.

D. Decreasing GDP in the United States than in Canada.

E. Increasing GDP in Canada relative to the United States.

7B. If an exchange rate is said to be floating, that means it is

A, set by the World Bank.

B. set by the government.

C. set by the market forces of supply and demand.

D. set by the International Monetary Fund.

E. set by individual banks.

7C. When the international value of the U.S. dollar increases,

A. Americans pay more for foreign goods.

B. the U.S. trade deficit decreases.

C. U.S. imports decrease.

D. Americans would demand less foreign currency.

E. U.S. exports decrease.

7D. Suppose interest rates fall in the United States, but they donât fall in other nations. What is the impact on the flow of financial capital, the value of the U.S. dollar, and U.S. net exports (based on the changing value of the dollar)?

Capital Flow / Value of the U.S. dollar / Net Exports

A. Inflow / Appreciate / Increase

B. Inflow / Appreciate / Decrease

C. Outflow / Depreciate / Decrease

D. Outflow / Depreciate / Increase

E. Outflow / Appreciate / Decrease

7E. Which of the following would cause the U.S. dollar (USD) to appreciate as compared to the euro?

A. Interest rates in the United States decrease.

B. American consumers prefer to buy European goods.

C. European consumers boycott American goods.

D. GDP in the European Union decreases.

E. GDP in the European Union increases.

8A.

Which of the following would cause the U.S. dollar (USD) to depreciate as compared to the euro?

A. Interest rates in the United States decrease.

B. Interest rates in the European Union decrease.

C. Price levels in the European Union increase.

D. Price levels in the United States decrease.

E. GDP in the European Union increases.

8B. The U.S. dollar is currently trading for 7 pesos per dollar. If the exchange rate adjusts to 10 pesos per dollar then

A. the U.S. dollar has depreciated.

B. the U.S. dollar has appreciated.

C. the Mexican peso has appreciated.

D. both the Mexican peso and the U.S. dollar have appreciated.

E. both the Mexican peso and the U.S. dollar have depreciated.

8C. Suppose the United States and Brazil sign a free trade agreement. If real interest rates increase in the United States but not in Brazil, which of the following will be true of Brazilian capital flow, exports, and the value of the Brazilian real?

Capital Flow / Exports / Value of Brazilian Real

A.Inflow / Increase / Depreciate.

B. Inflow / Decrease / Appreciate.

C. Outflow / Increase / Appreciate.

D. Outflow / Decrease / Appreciate.

E. Outflow / Increase / Depreciate.

8D. Suppose Europeans began purchasing real assets in the United States. How would this impact the foreign exchange market for the euro and the U.S. dollar price of the euro?

Supply of euro / U.S. dollar Price of euro

A. Increase / Increase

B. Increase / Decrease

C. Decrease / Increase

D. Decrease / Decrease

E. Decrease/ Not Change

9. Suppose U.S. consumers decide they like foreign goods better than they like domestic goods. As a result of this change, which of the following is true?

I. The demand for the U.S. dollar will increase.
II. The demand for the U.S. dollar will decrease.
III. U.S. exports will increase as a result of the changing value of the U.S. dollar.
IV. U.S. exports will decrease as a result of the changing value of the U.S. dollar.

A. I only.

B. I and III only.

C. I and IV only.

D. II and IV only.

E. II and III only.

Derivative

Vanguard High Yield Corporate Fund
Materials
â¢ Website information (23/05/2016)
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0029&FundIntExt=INT
â¢ Summary Prospectus (27/05/2015)
â¢ Prospectus (27/05/2015)
Anakinâs Job
In May 2016, Anakin leaves his job in Hollywood and returned to the finance industry. It is his
first love after all and the industry appears to be picking up again after the credit crunch of
2007-2008. He applies to be the risk analyst to the fund manager of the Vanguard High Yield
Corporate Fund as his quantitative training positions him well for a job that requires ever more
numerical and computational skills over the years. His solid background in applied analytics
in business management and humble demeanour help him clinch the post without much
difficulty.
The Vanguard Group is an American investment company that has approximately USD 3
trillion in asset-under-management. It is founded in 1975 by John Bogle who created the first
index fund (tied to the S&P 500 index) in the process. After an initial lull, the index grew
rapidly along with the bull market of the 1980s. The Group has since added various financial
services and products to its core business, particularly the ETFs.
Anakin is tasked by the fund manager to become thoroughly familiar with the structure of the
fund as is documented by files provided under âMaterialsâ. After that, he is to assess the
exposure of the High Yield Corporate Fund to risks in the market. He seeks the opinion of
Darth who is a veteran market analyst with the Vanguard Guard group for over 20 years.
Outlook
Darth has this to say about the economy and fixed income market:
" The US economy is improving steadily. It will not be long before the Fed decides to raise
interest rates. Once the Fed restarts the regime of rising rates, it will about 2 years for the yield
curve to rise by 100 basis points.
Consequently, in the more stringent economic environment, companies of lower credit
qualities, namely those of Caa and below, are expected to have their credit standing further
eroded. There is a 25% chance that a Caa-rated issuer may go into default and another 25%
chance that it may be downgraded to C.
The Greek debt problem, though much stabilized than before, is still a matter of grave concern
for the Eurozone. Expect the euro to depreciate against the dollar over the course of the next 6
months. A fall of 500 pips will not be a surprise. "
Assume Anakinsâ role and answer the following questions. Questions 1 and 2 concern the
Financial Environment. The Environment at large provides the context and sets the constraints
within which financial decisions are weighed and taken. Questions 3 and 4 pertain to the task
that Anakin needs to complete.

Question 1
Describe the types of mutual funds that can be found in the market in a concise and systematic
manner, suitable for presenting to a group of investors who are high net worth and impatient.
(25 marks)
Question 2
Collect data (e.g. from the internet and/or Eikon) to plot the term structures of bond yields.
Each term structure describes the state of the fixed income market for bonds of the credit quality
corresponding to that curve. The different term structures span the space of bonds across credit
qualities and maturities.
Analyse the states of these markets relative to the shape of the curves. Compare and contrast
your analysis with current market views.
Explain your steps, present your answers and quote your sources clearly.
(25 marks)
Question 3
To better understand the structure of the fund, answer the following questions:
(a) Describe the composition of the fund.
(b) What are the risks faced by the fund according to the prospectus? Analyse the nature of
the portfolio risk accordingly and comment on whether commodity price risk and equity
price risk matter to the fund management.
(c) Discuss the performance of the fund based on the financial numbers provided.
(d) Assess the quality of the management of the fund.
(25 marks)
Question 4
The fund is affected by changes in the financial markets. When interest rates rise, the value of
the portfolio falls. Occurrences that are flagged by the rating agency to be credit events can
result in the downgrading of credit rating of bond issuers. Bonds that denominated in foreign
currency are affected by fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
(a) Analyse generally the need for hedging the various market risks for the fund.

Take into account Darthâs outlook. Address some of these risk concerns by answering the
following question:
(b) Suppose that in the coming 2 years, the prevailing interest rates are expected to go up
by 100 basis points and you are concerned. Show how you could hedge away the
interest rate risk by using an interest rate swap, assuming that the fund by may
represented by a single 5-year par bond on the $18.4 billion net assets with semi-annual
5% coupon payments starting from the current date.
In your explanation, you may assume a scenario in which a flat yield curve increases
uniformly across all terms by 25 basis points per half-a-year.
(c) Credit default swaps may be used to ameliorate credit risk. Appraise the use of such
option-like derivative instruments in managing the risk of the portfolio by explaining
how such instruments function.

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BAFI1002 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: The Foreign Exchange

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