GEOG10001 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Environmental Degradation, Tertullian, Negative Feedback
16 May 2018
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Department
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Professor
LECTURE 5: MALTHUSIAN THEORIES OF FAMINE
• Currently: 4 countries in famine: Nigeria, South Sudan, Yemen + Somalia
• UNICEF: “Current famine is the largest humanitarian crisis since beginning of UN in 1945” (20 mil facing famine)
SOMALIA 2017
• Close to being declared famine, (said to be declared by June), currently: 110 people dead in 48 hours (March, 2017)
• Drought, related to current El Nino weather system, also Cholera causing death
• 3 mil people facing acute food insecurity
• 6.2 mil in need of urgent help
• 2011 Somalian famine left 250,000 dead
Proximate Causes
(Triggers)
• Drought: El Nino phenomenon, no set definition of drought, a process with short + long term effects
• Political Conflict: militants stopping flow of food
• Food prices
Underlying Factors
(Set Ups)
• Under-development
• Lack of livelihoods
• Lack of rule of law + governance
• Environmental degradation
• Population
MALTHUS: THEORY OF POPULATION
Theory: famine is caused by overpopulation – relationship between pop
growth + agricultural productivity (explains why famine occurs in certain
locations)
• Somalia: birth rate 6.67 births per woman, compared to Australia
(1.8/woman)
• Relationship between famine + population first proposed by
Tertullian in 200AD
Food Supply + Population
• Based on choice of individual/groups
• Supply of food based on demand due to growing population
The Problem According to Malthus
• Population growth + rate of food production were two incompatible trends
o Population growing exponentially
o Food production growing lineally
• Eventually population outpaces resources, resulting in natural limits (famine,
starvation + death)
• Unless there are dramatic changes in availability of food = social upheaval
o Context: poor tech, less crop variety + no fertility
• Declared the poor were the most vulnerable (less access to food), but also
cause of the problem
o Suggested abstinence for poor (coined it as moral restraint)
• Negative feedback cycle: growth only stops when famine occurs
The Answer According to Malthus
• Increase means of subsistence to match population growth
• Have preventative checks to reduce population growth (decreasing birth
rates)
MARXIST CRITIQUE (MARX + ENGELS)
Malthus:
• No analysis of why some get food + others miss out
• No differentiation between naturally + socially produced famine
Marxism
• Focuses on social relations of production in explaining famine
• Argue it was exploitation of wage workers by capitalists, in a quest for profits that leads to env. Issues + food shortage
o Lower class therefore suffer the worst effects of famine
• Solution: changing relations in production could resolve population problem
NEO-MALTHUSIANS (1960-70’s)
• View supported by well-respected scholars + environmentalists
• Major critique of Malthus: doesn’t account for technological advances
• Limits to Growth: report which outlines 3 scenarios in an economic, environmental + social
simulation with finite resource supply
o Suggests population will rise as resources fall until a point where pop. collapses
Views
• Currently have more food than we need
• Post WW1: concerns of growing population
• Root of problem: exponential pop. growth + food production can’t keep up (limits to growth)
• Food shortages likely to be more intense + more frequent
Malthus 91766-1834)
• Minister of the Church, Economist
• Famous for ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population
1798’
• Context: industrial revolution, growth of urban
centres, trade, large pop. growth
Overview of Theory
• Natural limitations to pop. growth exist
• Abundance encourages growth, unless prevented
by checks
• Preventative Checks: decreasing birth rates
• Positive Checks: increasing death rates
Can’t keep pace, therefore food required is
larger than food produced = shortages
Where population exceeds food output = famine
Limits to Growth
• Fisheries depleted
• Land availability +
degradation
• Water resources
• Climate change
• Resources depleted so
badly we have no
base for agricultural
production
Document Summary
Lecture 5: malthusian theories of famine: currently: 4 countries in famine: nigeria, south sudan, yemen + somalia. Unicef: current famine is the largest humanitarian crisis since beginning of un in 1945 (20 mil facing famine) Somalia 2017: close to being declared famine, (said to be declared by june), currently: 110 people dead in 48 hours (march, 2017) Drought, related to current el nino weather system, also cholera causing death. Drought: el nino phenomenon, no set definition of drought, a process with short + long term effects. Theory: famine is caused by overpopulation relationship between pop growth + agricultural productivity (explains why famine occurs in certain locations) Somalia: birth rate 6. 67 births per woman, compared to australia (1. 8/woman) Relationship between famine + population first proposed by. Supply of food based on demand due to growing population. Malthus 91766-1834: minister of the church, economist. Famous for an essay on the principle of population.
