GOV 1290 Chapter Notes - Chapter O'Donnell & Schmitter: Gianfranco Pasquino, Grand Council Of Fascism, Likey
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"Transitions*can*also*develop*into*widespread,*violent*confrontations,*eventually*giving*way*
to*revolutionary*regimes*which*promote*changes*going*far*beyond*the*political*realm"*(3)
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There*are*insufficient*structural*or*behavioral*parameters*to*guide*and*predict*the*
outcome
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During*these*periods*of*transitions,*it*is*impossible*to*predict*which*classes,*
sectors,*institutions,*and*other*groups*will*take*what*role,*opt*for*which*issues,*
or*support*what*alternative (find*cases*to*back*this*up*-- such*as*rich*landowners*
buying*votes,*etc.)
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"This*includes*transitions*from*authoritarian*rule.*The*increasingly*free*expression*of*
interests*and*ideals*following*liberalization,*the*variations*and*shifts*in*the*
configuration*of*power*and*benefit*within*the*authoritarian*regime,*and*the*high*
indeterminacy*of*interactions,*strategies,*and*outcomes*are,*among*other*
characteristics*[…]*crucial*reasons*for*the*inadequacy*of*using*"normal"*social*science*
concepts*and*approaches*to*analyze*such*situations"*(4)
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NOT*AFTER*1945,*HOWEVER.
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Once*a*transition*has*begun,*even*after*political*democracy*has*been*
established,*this*nucleus*of*unconditional*authoritarians*is*likely*to*remain*the*
stubborn*source*of*attempted*coups*and*conspiracies*(16)
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Hard-liners*(duros)
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"What*turns*them*into*soft-liners*is*their*increasing*awareness*that*the*regime*they*
helped*to*implant,*and*in*which*they*usually*occupy*important*positions,*will*have*to*
make*use,*in*the*foreseeable*future,*of*some*degree*or*some*form*of*electoral*
legitimation"*(16)
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"If*its*eventual*legitimation*is*to*be*feasible,*the*regime*cannot*wait*too*long*before*
introducing*certain*freedoms,*at*least*to*the*extent*acceptable*to*moderate*segments*
of*the*domestic*opposition*and*of*international*public*opinion"*(16)
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Why*risk*the*"achievements*of*the*regime"*for*the*sake*of*the*fuzzy*long-
term*advantages*advocated*by*the*soft-liners?*This*is*the*typical*argument*
used*by*hard-liners,*technocrats,*and*many*others*who*prefer*to*continue*
enjoying*the*perquisites*of*unchallenged*authoritarian*rule,*against*the*
soft-liners
◊
Argentina*1976-1983*-- couldn't*miss*the*opportunity,*since*they*achieved*
so*few*successes
◊
"The*most*favorable*occasions*for*attempting*liberalization*come*at*periods*of*
high*economic*conjuncture,*in*which*the*soft-liners*hope*that*the*regime's*
effectiveness*will*be*transferred*into*popular*support*for*the*regime*during*the*
transition.*But*these*are*the*periods*during*which*the*soft-liners*are*likely*to*find*
less*support*for*-- and*to*be*less*self-convinced*of*-- their*goals."*(16)
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4Soft-liners*distinguish*themselves*form*hard-liners*by*proclaiming*that*some*form*of*
democracy*is*the*necessary*outcome*of*the*authoritarian*episode*that*they*
'unfortunately'*had*to*impose"*(17)
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The*hard-liners*tend*to*have*more*weight*in*the*initial*phases,*all*the*more*so*
where*the*threat*and*preceding*crisis*have*been*the*most*severe.*This*implies*a*
tendency*for*a*greater*and*more*systematic*use*of*repression*and*the*
probability*that*there*will*be*a*more*extensive*effort*to*eradicate*the*
institutions*of*previous*democratic*experiences
®
Soft-liners*emerge*with*their*recognition*that,*at*some*point*in*the*future,*some*
kind*of*political*"opening"*will*be*necessary
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The*motives*and*circumstances*under*which*an*authoritarian*regime*came*to*power*
can*have*a*lasting*effect*on*its*eventual*outcome"*(17)
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Soft-liners*(blandos)
§
Hard-liners*and*Soft-liners
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Moreover,*the*factor*which*most*probabilistically*assured*a*democratic*outcome*to*
the*transition*was*occupation*by*a*foreign*power*which*was*itself*a*political*
democracy*(18)
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In*all*the*other*cases,*the*reasons*for*launching*a*transition*can*be*found*predominately*in*
domestic,*internal*factors*(18)
§
"What*brings*down*a*democracy*is*not*the*inverse*of*those*factors*that*bring*down*an*
authoritative*regime*-- and*the*same*can*be*said*for*the*successful*consolidation*of*
these*respective*regime*types"*(18).
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Hope,*opportunity,*choice,*incorporation*of*new*actors,*shaping*and*renewal*of*
political*identities,*inventiveness*
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"one*of*the*basic*arguments*(which*we*share)*of*the*Juan*Linz*and*Alfred*Stepan*
volume*to*which*we*have*just*made*implicit*reference,*is*that*none*of*those*
breakdowns*was*fatalistically*bound*to*occur,*that*is,*they*could*have*been*
avoided*if*some*strategic*decision*had*been*made*and*especially*if*some*crucial*
mistakes*had*not*been*committed"*(19)
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Crucial*personae*during*the*breakdown*period*seem*like*actors*in*a*Greek*
tragedy*[…]*anticipating*their*fate*but*fulfilling*it*to*the*bitter*end,*powerless*
either*to*modify*their*solidarities,*alliances,*and*styles,*or*to*control*the*
international,*macroeconomic,*macrosocial,*and*institutional*factors*that*led*
toward*the*breakdown*(18)
®
In*contrast,*the*uncertainties,*risks,*and*deficits*of*information*characteristic*of*
the*transition*away*from*authoritarian*rule*have*as*their*counterpart*a*context*
of*expanding*(if*uncertain)*choices,*of*widespread*hopes,*of*innumerable*
experiments*toward*the*expansion*of*the*political*arena,*and*of*manifold*levels*
of*social*participation*(19)
®
What*actors*do*and*do*not*do*seems*much*less*tightly*determined*by*"macro"*
structural*factors*during*the*transitions*we*study*here*than*during*the*
breakdown*of*democratic*regimes*(19)
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N5'(,C)-".,%5'&'%("&).()%, 70'-$&,($,#'+?,#$#"+(.,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+\,25","9<0('+(,
7""0)+C,H"-"+,)7,)(,).,<.<'00?,O<)(","9'CC"&'("3I,(5'(,(5",7<(<&",).,$;"+B,'+3,(5'(,(5",
)3"'0.,'+3,3"%).)$+,%$<+(,'.,#<%5,'.,)+("&".(.,'+3,.(&<%(<&"./,
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"But*the*main*reason*for*this*asymmetry*[…]*the*high*degree*of*indeterminacy*of*
social*and*political*action*and*the*inordinate*degrees*of*freedom*that*collective*and*
even*individual*action*may*have*at*some*momentous*junctures*of*the*transition"*(19)
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The*liberalization*and*eventual*democratization*of*authoritarian*regimes*may*have*its*
conspiratorial*side,*but*it*also*involves,*as*we*shall*see,*a*crucial*component*of*mobilization*
and*organization*of*large*numbers*of*individuals,*thereby*attenuating*the*role*of*external*
factors"*(18)
§
In*these*two*countries,*the*decision*to*liberalize*was*made*my*high-echelon,*
dominant*personnel*in*the*incumbent*regime*in*the*face*of*a*weak*and*
disorganized*opposition.*Portugal offers*a*slight*variant*on*this*scenario,*in*that*
the*"openers"*came*from*the*middle*echelon*of*the*military,*who*were*quickly*
compelled*by*the*ensuing*spontaneous*popular*mobilization*not*just*to*liberalize*
but*to*democratize.*
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Brazil*and*Spain*-- cases*of*such*a*direct*causalityM
"The*"decision*to*open"*was*heavily*influenced*by*the*presence*of*strong*
opposition*forces*in*the*civilian*population.*Nevertheless,*several*putschs*and*
purges*had*to*occur,*in*the*government*and*in*the*armed*forces,*before*the*soft-
liners*acquired*sufficient*control*over*governmental*and*military*positions*to*be*
able*to*implement*such*a*decision"*(19-20)
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Greece,*Peru,*Argentina*(circa*1970)M
"We*assert*that*there*is*no*transition*whose*beginning*is*not*the*consequence*-- direct*or*
indirect*-- of*important*divisions*within*the*authoritarian*regime*itself,*principally*along*the*
fluctuating*cleavage*between*hard-liners*and*soft-liners*(19)
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}
BrazilL,+$(,$+0?,A"&",.$#",$7,(5",g&'*)0)'+,#)0)('&?,0"3,($,;&"7"&,
0)1"&'0)*'()$+,1?,(5")&,$A+,7'%()$+'0).#B,1<(,)+,(5","'&0?,ThidQ.,;'&(,$7,
(5",1<&C"$).)",$;("3,7$&,0)#)("3,3"#$%&'()*'()$+,$<(,$7,%$+%"&+,$-"&,
(5","9;'+.)$+,'+3,C&$A)+C,'<($+$#?,$7,.('(",'C"+%)".,A5)%5,5'3,
'%%$#;'+)"3,"%$+$#)%,C&$A(5,3<&)+C,(5",;&"-)$<.,'<(5$&)('&)'+,
3"%'3"
}
=;')+L,)+,=;')+B,',1<.)+"..,%0'..,.)#)0'&0?,7'-$&"3,1?,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",
A'.,'0.$,;&";'&"3,($,.<;;$&(,',(&'+.)()$+,7&$#,)(B,"-"+,#$&",.$,.)+%",
)(,A'.,.""+,'.,',&"O<).)(",($,"-"+(<'0,"+(&?,)+($,(5",X<&$;"'+,
V$##<+)(?,66 1<(,(5","9'%(,()#)+C,$7,)(.,$%%<&&"+%",A'.,%$+()+C"+(,
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}
W<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,(5'(,5'3,1""+,&"0'()-"0?,.<%%"..7<0,'+3,5"+%",5'3,
"+%$<+("&"3,',0"..,'%()-",'+3,'CC&"..)-",$;;$.)()$+,$;("3,7$&,(5",(&'+.)()$+,
A)(5,',5)C5"&,3"C&"",$7,."076%$+7)3"+%"/
◊
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The*general*point*remains:*those*regimes*that*felt*themselves*successful*were*those*in*
which*the*decision*to*embark*on*a*transition*was*taken*without*a*high*degree*of*prior*
internal*disaggregation*or*external*pressure*(21)
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7&$#,(5",$(5"&,"9;"&)"+%".,A",5'-","9'#)+"3/,W0.$B,)(,';;0)"3,$+0?,#$3"&'(",&";&"..)$+,
'+3,#'3",7"A,%5'+C".,)+,5'1)(<'0,;'(("&.,)+,(5).,&"C'&3/
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=)#)0'&0?B,(5","9;"&)#"+(,)+,1<&"'<%&'()%6'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",A5)%5,1"C'+,)+,Th[[,)+,
W&C"+()+' A'.,%5'&'%("&)*"3,1?,',0$A,0"-"0,$7,;&"-)$<.,(5&"'(B,(5",'#1)C<$<.,&$0",;0'?"3,
1?,]"&$+).#,'+3,(5",<+)$+.,)+,(5")&,)+)()'0,.<;;$&(,7$&,(5",%$<;B,'+3,1?,5)C5,
"9;"%('()$+.,(5'(,4.$%)'0,;"'%"4,'+3,3"-"0$;#"+(,A$<03,1",&"0'()-"0?,"'.?,($,'%5)"-"j,
5"+%",(5",0"-"0,$7,&";&"..)$+,A'.,&"0'()-"0?,0$A,HcdI/,
M
Conversely,*no*transition*can*be*forced*purely*by*opponents*against*a*regime*
which*maintains*the*cohesion,*capacity,*and*disposition*to*apply*repression.*
Perpetuation*in*power*or*armed*revolutionary*struggle*become*the*only*likely*
outcomes*of*such*cases.*On*the*other*hand,*where*the*cost*of*acting*in*dissent*is*
rather*low,*but*the*objective*performance*and*subjective*confidence*of*the*
regime*are*high,*a*transition*is*not*likely*to*occur,*and*when*it*does,*it*is*bound*
to*be*restricted*initially*to*rules*and*issues*which*the*authoritarian*rulers*feel*
they*can*control (USE*THIS)
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a$+",$7,(5".",C"+"&'0)*'()$+.,"9%0<3",(5",;$..)1)0)(?,$7,'%%)3"+(.,3",;'&%$<&.,)+,
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&".<0(.
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Regime-confident,*self-initiated*scenario:*the*sequence,*rhythm,*and*scope*of*
liberalization*and*democratization*tend*to*remain*more*firmly*in*the*control*of*
incumbents*(and,*therefore,*occur*more*slowly*and*with*less*generalized*
uncertainty)
®
Opposition-induced*scenario:*the*social*and*political*forces*which*supported*the*
authoritarian*regime*stand*a*better*chance*of*playing*a*significant*electoral*and*
representational*role*in*the*subsequent*regime*(21)
®
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%$+(&$0,$7,(5",'C"+3','+3,()#)+C,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+/,25).,.<CC".(.,(5'(,A5"&",3).."+(,).,
5)C5,'+3,&"C)#",."076%$+7)3"+%",0$AB,<+0"..,(5",%$.(,$7,$&C'+)*)+C,).,&')."3B,(5",0'(("&,).,
0)>"0?,($,5'-",%$#;'&'()-"0?,5)C5,)+70<"+%",$-"&,(5",&<0".,'+3,(5",)..<".,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,
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4a$&,%'+,(5",()#)+C,$7,'+,$;"+)+C,($A'&3,0)1"&'0)*'()$+,1",%$&&"0'("3,;&"3)%('10?,A)(5,(5",
;"&7$&#'+%",$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"&.,)+,#""()+C,.$%)$"%$+$#)%,C$'0./,g$(5,&"0'()-",.<%%"..,'+3,
&"0'()-",7')0<&",5'-",%5'&'%("&)*"3,(5".",#$#"+(.B,'0(5$<C5,'3#)(("30?B,.('+3'&3.,'&",5)C50?,
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§
Context*for*Transitional*Openings
○
Opening*(and*Undermining)*Authoritarian*Regimes@
Portugal:*Manuel*Antionio*Garretón*argues*in*his*chapter*that*a*similar*situation*might*occur*
in*Chile*in*the*event*of*a*liberalization*-democratization*of*the*Pinochet*dictatorship*(the*
longevity*of*such*regimes*and/or*the*ruthlessness*with*which*they*eradicated*national*
political*institutions*and*local*autonomies*meant*that*the*transition*faced*almost*a*tabula*
rasa,*or*blank*state)
§
Brazil:*no*serious*attempt*was*made*to*create*distinctively*authoritarian*institutions.*
Rather,*the*generals*who*have*governed*Brazil*since*1964*hadthe*good*sense*to*rule*
largely*by*distorting*rather*than*by*disbanding*the*basic*institutions*of*political*
democracy.*Previous*parties*were*banned,*but*their*quasi-resurgence*was*tolerated*
under*the*all-embracing*rubrics*of*an*official*two-party*system.*Parliament*was*
periodically*closed*own*and*had*little*to*do*with*legislation*and*policy-making,*but*it*
did*function*most*of*the*time*and*gradually*acquired*effective*authority.*Candidacies*
were*controlled,*but*elections*were*held*fairly*regularly,*especially*at*the*local*level,*
were*competition*remained*lively.*Thus,*by*the*time*the*liberalization*(abertura)*was*
signaled*by*the*relaxation*of*censorship*in*1972,*and*then*launched*with*the*1974*
elections,*some*channels*of*organized*political*expression*were*already*in*place.*
Admittedly*all*this*was*carefully*monitored*by*the*regime,*regressions*did*occur*when*
"undesirable"*results*happened*or*even*seemed*likely,*and*the*transition*has*gone*
much*slower*than*elsewhere.*Nevertheless,*the*role*of*representative*institutions*
grew*steadily,*to*the*point*that*opposition*parties*became*heavily*represented*in*
Congress*and*controlled*several*important*state*governorships.*Nevertheless,*until*
1984,*they*were*denied*the*opportunity*to*compete*under*democratic*rules*for*the*
highest*national*executive*office*(22-23)
M
Brazil*and*Peru:*shorter*duration,*the*structures*and*even*the*personnel*inherited*from*the*
previous*democracies*have*shown*a*surprising*capacity*for*revival.
§
Italy:*Fascists*in*power*for*20*years,*the*king,*the*military,*and*even*the*Fascist*Grand*
Council*played*a*crucial*role*-- for*good*and*for*ill*-- in*ensuring*some*continuity*during*the*
transitional*period,*as*Gianfranco*Pasquino*shows.
§
Spain:*the*institutions*and*legislation*of*the*Franco*regime,*with*roots*in*previous*Spanish*
experience,*were*of*major*importance.*The*Cortes,*its*personnel*unchanged,*committed*the*
extraordinary*act*of*voting*its*own*extinction*and*opening*the*way*for*the*establishment*of*
democratic*institutions.*In*addition,*the*person*of*the*king*and*the*institution*of*the*crown*
were*essential*in*providing*a*central*focus*which*consistently*supported*the*transition*and*
was*accepted*by*almost*all*as*being*above*party,*faction,*and*particular*interests*(22)
§
Latin*America (as*well*as*Greece):*did*more*to*undermine*the*institutions*of*the*more-or-less*
democratic*regimes*which*preceded*them*than*the*longer-lived*and*ideologically*stronger*
authoritarianisms*of*Italy,*Spain*,*and*Portugal.*The*former*regimes*have*often*destroyed*
previous*institutions*and*practices*without*replacing*them*with*alternative*forms*of*
representation,*decision-making,*or*policy*implementation*[…]*Additional*factors*seem*to*be*
extreme*fear*of*the*"chaos"*which*preceded*authoritarian*rule*in*Latin*America*and*the*
much*stronger*military*component*in*these*countries*as*compared*with*Italy,*PortugaL,*and*
even*Spain,*which*probably*made*them*more*hostile*to*any*form*of*civilian*political*
representation.*(22)*
§
"Once*liberalization*has*been*chosen*-- for*whatever*reason*and*under*whatever*degree*of*
control*by*incumbents*[…]*[there*exists]*the*fear*of*a*coup*that*would*not*only*cut*short*the*
transition*but*impose*a*regression*to*an*even*more*restrictive*and*regressive*mode*of*
governance
§
W+$(5"&,)#;$&('+(,"0"#"+(,3)77"&"+()'()+C,(5",%'.".,)+,(5".",-$0<#".,%$+%"&+.,(5","9("+(,($,A5)%5,
&";&"."+('()-",)+.()(<()$+.,66 ;$0)()%'0,;'&()".B,.$%)'0,#$-"#"+(.B,)+("&".(,'..$%)'()$+.B,'<($+$#$<.,
'C"+%)".B,0$%'0,C$-"&+#"+(.,66 5'-",.<&-)-"3,7&$#,(5",;"&)$3,;&)$&,($,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"/,
○
The*Preauthoritarian*Legacy@
If*there*is*one*characteristic*common*to*all*our*cases*it’s*the*omnipresent*fear*during*the*
transition,*and*often*long*after*the*political*democracy*has*been*installed,*that*a*coup*will*be*
attempted*and*succeed.
○
These*actors,*the*hard-liners,*fear*that*the*transition*and*political*democracy*are*bound*to*lead*to*
an*abyss,*and*are*prepared*to*force*at*any*cost*a*return*to*the*good*old*times*of*order,*social*
peace,*and*respect*for*authority*[…]*However*divided*these*proponents*and*supporters*may*be*on*
substantive*and*procedural*issues,*they*share*an*overriding*interesting*in*avoiding*a*coup.*Indeed,*
this*provides*a*crucial*convergence,*which*may*lead*to*explicit*or*implicit*cooperation*among*
these*actors*(24)
○
Fearing*the*Present@
W(,(5",1"C)++)+C,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,A)(5)+,(5",&"C)#",5'-",',.(&$+C,5'+3,)+,&"0'()$+,($,
(5",$;;$.)()$+,HcPI
○
25).,("+3.,($,A"'>"+,'+3,3)-)3",(5",;&$;$+"+(.,$7,7<&(5"&,3"#$%&'()*'()$+/,N5'(,7$&%".,(5",%'&3.,
($,(5",('10",).,(5",C&$A)+C,"-)3"+%",(5'(B,)7,',%$<;,3$".,)+3""3,$%%<&B,(5",5'&360)+"&.,A)00,+$(,$+0?,
5'-",($,&";&"..,(5",&"C)#"Q.,$;;$+"+(.,1<(,A)00,'0.$,5'-",($,$-"&(5&$A,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,A)(5)+,)(.,
&'+>./,25",7'%()$+'0).#,$7,(5",&"C)#",).,0)>"0?,($,)+%&"'.",($,(5",;$)+(,(5'(,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,%$#",($,
&"%$C+)*",(5",)+("&".(,(5"?,.5'&",A)(5,(5",$;;$.)()$+,)+,'-$)3)+C,',&"(<&+,($,7<00670"3C"3,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"B,"-"+,)7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,(<&+.,$<(,($,"9("+3,1"?$+3,(5",;$0)()%'0,7$&#.,'+3,;$0)%?,
)..<".,(5"?,)+)()'00?,(&)"3,($,)#;$."/,8$&"$-"&B,1?,%$+()+<)+C,A)(5,(5",(&'+.)()$+B,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,%'+,
>"";,'0)-",(5",5$;",(5'(,(5"?,A)00,"-"+(<'00?,1",'10",($,%$+(&$0,(5",;&$%"..,'+3,;&$("%(,(5")&,
)+("&".(.,HcP6cUI
○
That*those*who*begin*the*transition*by*threatening*a*coup*become*the*principal*guarantors*
against*such*an*outcome*is*one*of*the*numerous*paradoxes*of*our*theme*(25)
○
Playing*Coup*Poker@
25",4$;"+)+C4,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",<.<'00?,;&$3<%".,',.5'&;,'+3,&';)3,)+%&"'.",)+,C"+"&'0,
;$0)()%)*'()$+,'+3,;$;<0'&,'%()-'()$+,66 4(5",&".<&&"%()$+,$7,%)-)0,.$%)"(?4,H:Q!$++"00I,6c[
○
25).,%0'..,%$+-"&C"+%"B,'0$+C,A)(5,.<)('10?,)+%0)+"3,"0"#"+(.,A)(5)+,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".B,).,',
+"%"..'&?,66 )7,+$(,.<77)%)"+(,66 %$+3)()$+,7$&,',.<%%"..7<0,'<(5$&)('&)'+,.")*<&",$7,;$A"&B,'C')+.(,
1$(5,',3"#$%&'()%,&"C)#",'+3,',(&'+.)()$+'0,$+"/
§
4W.,A'.,.<CC".("3,1?,(5",.(<3?,$7,(5",1&"'>3$A+,$7,3"#$%&'%?B,'+,'<(5$&)('&)'+,)+70"%()$+,1?,',
0'&C",;'&(,$7,(5",1$<&C"$).)",).,<.<'00?,'%%$#;'+)"3,1?,'+$(5"&,.?#;($#,$7,)#;"+3)+C,3'+C"&L,(5",
#$1)0)*'()$+,$7,#)330",."%($&.,)+,7'-$&,$7,',%$<;,(5'(,A)00,1&)+C,4$&3"&4,($,.$%)"(?4,,HciI
○
The*Cycle*of*Mobilization@
R+,(5",%'.".,'+'0?*"3,5"&"B,(5",&".;"%()-",'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,';;0)"3B,'(,0"'.(,7$&,.$#",;"&)$3,$7,
(5")&,"9).("+%"B,."-"&",'+3,%$+.).("+(,%$"&%)$+,($,1&$'3,."C#"+(.,$7,(5",;$;<0'()$+B,'+3,"-"+,#$&",
.?.("#'()%,'+3,7$%<."3,&";&"..)$+,($,;'&()%<0'&,;'&()".B,$&C'+)*'()$+.B,'+3,)+3)-)3<'0.,A5)%5,(5"?,
5"03,&".;$+.)10",7$&,(5",4%5'$.,'+3,%$&&<;()$+4,(5'(,;&"%"3"3,(5")&,.")*<&",$7,;$A"&/,Hc`I
○
Fascist*Italy,*Salazar's*Portugal,*Franco's*Spain 66 (5",#$.(,3)&"%(,'+3,43)&(?4,('.>.,A"&",
"9"%<("3,1?,',;$0)()%'0,;$0)%",+$(,7$&#'00?,.<1$&3)+'("3,($,(5",#)0)('&?,".('10).5#"+(
§
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(5")&,;"&.$+.,$&,(5")&,)+.()(<()$+'0,)+("C&)(?
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f'-)+C,)+(&<3"3,0"..,)+($,(5",'3#)+).(&'()-",'+3,7<+%()$+'0,';;'&'(<.,$7,(5",.('("B,(5"?,
5'3,',0"..,(&'<#'()%,'3D<.(#"+(,($,#'>",)+,(5")&,)+3)-)3<'0,%'&""&.,$&,;&$7"..)$+'0,
.(&<%(<&".,A5"+,$&3"&"3,($,&"(<&+,($,(5")&,1'&&'%>.
M
25).,7'%)0)('("3,(5")&,"-"+(<'0,'%%";('+%",$7,',3"#$%&'()%,$;"+)+C,7$&,(A$,&"'.$+.L,
§
R+,%$+(&'.(B,(5",%'.".,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",5"&","95)1)(.,',#$&",3)&"%(,'+3,<+'#1)C<$<.,
0)+>,1"(A""+,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,'+3,(5",%$##)..)$+,$7,&";&"..)-",'%(.
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(5",'&#"3,7$&%".
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Latin*America*and*Greece
§
W,7)&.(,3)77"&"+%",5)+C".,$+,A5"(5"&,$&,+$(,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,'.,.<%5,A"&",3)&"%(0?,&".;$+.)10",7$&,
#$.(,$7,(5",'%(.,$7,&";&"..)$+/,
○
25",.5""&,#'C+)(<3",'+3,4O<'0)(?4,$7,;5?.)%'0,&";&"..)$+,66 (5",3"C&"",($,A5)%5,;'&()%<0'&0?,
&";<0.)-",'%(.,A"&",%$##)(("3B,'+3,(5","9("+(,($,A5)%5,%0"'&0?, )++$%"+(,;"&.$+.,.<77"&"3/,25",#$&",
1&<('0B,)+5<#'+"B,'+3,"9("+.)-",A"&",(5",&";&"..)-",'%()$+.B,(5",#$&",(5")&,'%(<'0,;"&;"(&'($&.,66
(5",)+.()(<()$+.,)+-$0-"3,'+3,(5$.",;"&.$+.,A5$,%$00'1$&'("3,)+,(5"#,$&,.<;;$&("3,(5"#,66 7""0,
(5&"'("+"3,,'+3,A)00,("+3,($,7$&#,',10$%,$;;$.)+C,'+?,(&'+.)()$+/
○
4g<(,"-"+,<+3"&,(5",A$&.(,$7,%)&%<#.('+%".,66 5"'-?,'+3,&"%"+(,$%%<&&"+%"B,'+3,5"'-?,'+3,
A)3".;&"'3,#)0)('&?,%$#;0)%)(?B,'.,)+,%$+("#;$&'&?,W&C"+()+',66 A",1"0)"-",(5'(,(5",A$&.(,$7,1'3,
.$0<()$+.,A$<03,1",($,(&?,($,)C+$&",(5",)..<",EFG,g?,&"7<.)+C,($,%$+7&$+(,'+3,($,;<&C",)(."07,$7,)(.,
A$&.(,7"'&.,'+3,&"."+(#"+(.B,.<%5,',.$%)"(?,A$<03,1",1<&?)+C,+$(,D<.(,)(.,;'.(,1<(,(5",-"&?,"(5)%'0,
-'0<".,)(,+""3.,($,#'>",)(.,7<(<&",0)-'10"/4,HJdI
○
Selling*a*Past*Account*(without*Upsetting*a*Present*Transition)@
N",5'-",.<CC".("3,.$#",+"%"..'&?,%$+3)()$+.,7$&,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,($,7)+3,'+3,&"(')+,',4+$&#'04,
)+.()(<()$+'0,.('(<.,A)(5)+,',7<+%()$+)+C,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?L,(5"?,#<.(,.$#"5$A,1",)+3<%"3,($,
#$3)7?,(5")&,#"..)'+)%,."076)#'C"j,(5"?,#<.(,1",C)-"+,',%&"3)10", '+3,5$+$&'10",&$0",)+,'%%$#;0).5)+C,
H1<(,+$(,."(()+CI,+'()$+'0,C$'0.j,'+3,(5"?,#<.(,1",#'3",#$&",)#;"&-)$<.,($,(5","+()%"#"+(.,$7,
%)-)0)'+,;$0)()%)'+.,A5$,(<&+,($,(5"#,A5"+,7&<.(&'("3,)+,(5",'3-'+%"#"+(,$7,(5")&,)+("&".(.,1?,
3"#$%&'()%,#"'+.,HJcI
○
Our*factual*conclusion*-- stated*above*as*a*normative*preference*-- is*that*for*such*countries*the*
only*route*to*political*democracy*is*a*pacific*and*negotiated*one,*based*on*the*initial*liberalization*
and*on*the*subsequent*introduction*of*institutions*of*electoral*competition,*interest*
representation,*and*executive*accountability*-- with*the*costs,*trade-offs,*and*uncertainties*such*a*
course,*as*we*shall*see,*entails*(34)
○
Defusing*(but*Not*Necessarily*Disarming)*the*Military@
25",K&'+%$,&"C)#",#'?,5'-",1""+,#'&>"30?,#)0)('&?,)+,)(.,$&)C)+.B,1<(,1?,(5",()#",$7,)(.,
(&'+.7$&#'()$+B,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,5'3,1"%$#",$+0?,$+",$7,(5",."-"&'0,"0"#"+(.,)+,A5'(,k<'+,^)+*,
5'.,%'00"3,)(.,40)#)("3,;0<&'0).#4
○
25",.)(<'()$+,).,3)77"&"+(,A5"+,',%'<3)00$,5'.,"#"&C"3,7&$#,(5",;'%>,($,('>",;"&.$+'0,%$##'+3,$7,
(5",&"C)#"/,=<%5,)+3)-)3<'0.,%'++$(,)#'C)+",(5'(,(5",%$<+(&?,%$<03,3$,A)(5$<(,(5")&,."&-)%"./,R+,+$,
%'.",5'.,',(&'+.)()$+,1""+,)+)()'("3,$&,C<)3"3,1?,$+",$7,(5".",%'<3)00$./,25",$+0?,A'?,$<(,.""#.,($,
(5&$A
○
Our*conclusion,*then,*is*that*there*are*conditional*possibilities*for*coaxing*the*military*out*of*
power*and*inducing*the*to*tolerate*a*transition*toward*democracy.*The*most*difficult*immediate*
problems*are*how*to*administer*justice*to*those*directly*responsible*for*past*acts*of*repression*
and*how*to*assert*some*degree*of*civilian*control*over*decision*about*promotion*and*resource*
allocation*within*the*armed*forces.*As*we*argued*before,*the*longer-term*issues*-- and*hopes*--
involve*a*gradual*change*in*the*military's*image*of*itself*as*ultimate*guardian*of*the*national*
interest*and*a*shift*from*preoccupation*with*internal*security*to*some*more*credible*and*orthodox*
role*as*defender*of*the*country's*(or*the*regions')*external*security*(36).
○
Degree*of*Militarization*of*the*Authoritarian*Regime@
Pact:*an*explicit,*but*not*always*publicly*explicated*or*justified,*agreement*among*a*select*set*of*
actors*which*seeks*to*define*rules*governing*the*exercise*of*power*on*the*basis*of*mutual*
guarantees*for*the*"vital*interests"*(37)
○
R+,0)#)("3,3"#$%&'%)".,)(,).,(5",%)-)0)'+,';;'&'(<.,$7,;$0)()%'0,;'&()".B,)+("&".(,'..$%)'()$+.B,'+3,
C$-"&+#"+(,'C"+%)".,(5'(,).,.<1D"%(,($,3"%'?,HPcI
○
=$#",W#"&)%'+,;$0)()%'0,.%)"+().(.,5'-",'&C<"3,(5'(,4%&)()%'0,"0"%()$+.4,)+-$0-)+C,.<1.('+()'0,
&"'0)C+#"+(.,)+,(5",.$%)'0,1'.".,$7,;'&(?,.<;;$&(,5'-",;&$-)3"3,'+,"O<)-'0"+(,#"%5'+).#,$7,
3"#$%&'()%,&".;$+.)-"+"..,)+,<+()"3,=('(".,;$0)()%./,
○
All*of*the*unpacted*democracies*existing*at*different*times*in*other*Latin*American*countries*were*
destroyed*by*authoritarian*reversals.*It*is*worth*noting,*too,*that*the*social*costs*of*those*
democratic*and*authoritarian*alternations*have*been*as*bad*as*or*even*worse*than*those*of*the*
pacted*democracies*of*Venezuela*and*Colombia.*On*the*other*hand,*the*transitions*in*the*
contemporary*scene*-- those*of*Peru,*Bolivia,*Ecuador,*the*DR,*and*Argentina*-- are*characterized*
by*the*absence*of*political*(and*economic)*pacts.*The*least*that*can*be*said*about*these*cases*is*
that*the*prospects*of*consolidation*of*their*democratic*regimes*look*less*encouraging*than*those*
of*Southern*Europe.*The*present*and*future*probably*exception*is*Brazil,*where*what*we*term*a*
"military*pact"*and*a*"political*pact"*were*clearly*if*not*explicitly*made,*and*where*an*economic*
pact*may*still*be*likely.*Aside*from*other*characteristics*already*noted,*what*differentiates*Brazil*
from*the*other*Latin*American*cases*is*the*relative*success*of*its*authoritarian*regime*and,*hence,*
the*firm*and*inordinately*enduring*control*that*its*transitional*government*have*been*able*to*keep*
on*the*process*(45).
○
25).,3$".,+$(,;&"%0<3",(5'(B,)+,'+,"77$&(,($,.'0-'C",(5$.",.5'>?,3"#$%&'%)".B,;$0)()%'0, '+3,"%$+$#)%,
;'%(.,#'?,1",'(("#;("3,)+,(5",7<(<&",66 1<(,(5).,0"'3.,<.,'A'?,7&$#,(5",(5"#",$7,3"#$%&'()%,
)+.('00'()$+,($A'&3,(5'(,$7,%$+.$0)3'()$+,HPUI
○
Negotiating*and*Renegotiating*Pacts@
e"(()+C,(5",#)0)('&?,1'%>,($,(5")&,1'&&'%>.,'+3,.<1D"%(,($,%)-)0)'+, %$+(&$0,'+3,C"(()+C,;$0)()%'0,;'&()".,
($,%$#;"(",'%%$&3)+C,($,(5",&<0".,$7,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?,'&",.<77)%)"+(,'%5)"-"#"+(.,($,"+.<&",
.)C+)7)%'+(,&"C)#",%5'+C"
○
If*there*are*any*lessons*to*be*gleaned*from*analogous*efforts*by*consolidated*political*democracies*
at*pursuing*incomes*and*other*"concerted"*neocorporatist*policies,*it*is*that*success*depends*on*
the*presence*of*authoritative,*monopolistic,*and*centralized*class*associations*sharing*a*high*
degree*of*consensus*about*macroeconomic*goals.*
○
Whether*or*not*such*undemocratic*means*of*negotiating*(and*renegotiating)*agreements*will*be*
compatible*with*a*viable*political*democracy*is*not*simply*a*function*of*whether*the*governments,*
political*parties,*and*class*associations*can*somehow*reach*and*implement*them.*These*efforts*
may*be*helped*or*nullified*by*the*forces*of*civil*society*which*tend*to*erupt*in*the*aftermath*of*the*
initial*steps*toward*liberalization.*
○
The*Economic*Moment@
Those*privileged*sectors*who*were*among*the*regime's*earliest*supporters*and*who,*at*least*
initially,*were*among*its*main*beneficiaries*may*come*to*the*conclusion*that*the*authoritarian*
regime*is*dispensable.*They*may*feel*that*they*regime*has*accomplished*what*it*set*out*to*
achieve*-- that*is,*what*they*wished*to*do*-- and*that*by*perpetuating*itself*longer*than*necessary,*
it*is*incurring*the*risk*of*social*polarization*and*violent*popular*reaction*(50)
○
But*the*greatest*challenge*to*the*transitional*regime*is*likely*to*come*from*the*new*or*revived*
identities*and*capacity*for*collective*action*of*the*working*class*and*low-ranking,*often*unionized,*
employees.*Not*surprisingly,*this*is*the*area*to*which*liberalization*is*extended*most*hesitantly*
and*least*irreversibly*(52)
○
4]$;<0'&,S;.<&C"4,66 (&'3",<+)$+.B,C&'..6&$$(.,#$-"#"+(.B,&"0)C)$<.,C&$<;.B,)+("00"%(<'0.B,'&().(.B,
%0"&C?#"+B,3"7"+3"&.,$7,5<#'+,&)C5(.B,'+3,;&$7"..)$+'0,'..$%)'()$+.,'00,.<;;$&(,"'%5,$(5"&Q.,"77$&(.,
($A'&3,3"#$%&'()*'()$+,'+3,%$'0".%",)+($,',C&"'(,A5$0",A5)%5,)3"+()7)".,)(."07,'.,4(5",;"$;0"4
○
^)((0","-)3"+%",$7,(5).,)+,=;')+,$&,e&""%"
§
R+,g&'*)0B,A5"&",(5).,;5"+$#"+',&"%")-"3,.$,#<%5,'(("+()$+B,A'.,&".(&%)("3,($,='$,]'<0$,'+3,
(5",V"+("&,=$<(5B,1<(,3)3,+$(,&"'%5,5)C5,0"-"0.,'+3,.<1.)3"3,O<)(",&';)30?
§
25",3)-"&.",0'?"&.,$7,'+,'0#$.(,)+.('+(0?,'%()-'("3,'+3,;$0)()%)*"3,%)-)0,.$%)"(?,3)3,
)+("&'%(B,($,.<;;$&(,'+3,.()&,"'%5,$(5"&,($,3"#'+3,7<&(5"&,"9("+.)$+.,)+,A5'(,A'.,%'00"3,
4$,;&$%"..$4,HUPI
M
2&'+.)()$+,A'.,;<.5"3,7'&,1"?$+3,0)1"&'0)*'()$+B,1"?$+3,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'()*'()$+B,'+3,
'0#$.(,($,.$%)'0)*'()$+/,g?,7'00,$7,ThiU,;$0)()%'0,<;.<&C",%&".("3,'+3,(&'+.)()$+,."((0"3,
M
The*successful*choreography*by*the*Armed*Forces*Movement*(MFA)*seems*to*have*
greatly*contributed*to*the*Portuguese*transition
M
X+%$<&'C"3,<&1'+,3"#$+.(&'()$+.M
]$&(<C'0,H)+,'7("&#'(5,$7,ThiP,&"-$0<()$+I,&";&"."+(.,#$.(,"9(&"#",)+.('+%",)+,.'#;0",$7,.<%5,
.;$+('+"$<.,$<(;$<&)+C,$7,"C'0)('&)'+,.$0)3'&)(?,'+3,"+(5<.)'.#
§
W&C"+()+'L,(A$,#$#"+(.,$7,;$;<0'&,<;.<&C",'+3,<+)(?,'C')+.(,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",HUPI
§
l"+"*<"0'L,ThU`,;"$;0",&$.",)+,#'..)-",.(&)>".,A5)%5,;'&'0?*"3,(5",A5$0",%$<+(&?,'+3,7$&%"3,
',.<&&"+3"&,$7,;$A"&,1?,]"&"*,k)#"+"*
§
f';;"+)+C,)+,;&"."+(,3'?,V5)0"
§
=$#",%$<+(&)".,.""#,($,5'-",0'&C"0?,#).."3,(5'(,"<;5$&)%,#$#"+(,A5"+,',-'.(,#'D$&)(?,$7,(5",
;$;<0'()$+,7""0,1$<+3,($C"(5"&,$+,"O<'0,("&&#.B,.(&<CC0)+C,7$&,(5",%$##$+,C$'0,$7,%&"'()+C,+$(,
#"&"0?,',+"A,;$0)(?,1<(,',+"A,.$%)'0,$&3"&
○
Their*common*identity*as*"the*people"*may,*upon*reflection*or*when*faced*with*concrete*
policy*choices,*be*fragmented*by*class,*status,*gender,*religion,*ethnicity,*language,*
generation,*ideological*belief,*and*partisan*allegiance
§
Hence,*where*the*transition*is*controlled*relatively*firmly*and*protractedly*by*incumbents,*
the*popular*upsurge*is*less*likely*to*occur,*and*where*it*does,*it*tends*to*be*more*confined*in*
space*and*time
§
Portugal:*half-heartedness*of*the*Spinola*coup*of*September*1974*and*the*confusion*
of*the*coup*and*countercoup*in*November*of*the*following*year
M
It*also*seems*that*the*relative*absence*of*this*upsurge*reduces*the*likelihood*of*a*coup-
induced*regression,*
§
"Our*cases*suggest*that*the*shorter*and*the*more*unexpected*the*transition*from*authoritarian*
rule,*the*greater*the*likelihood*of*popular*upsurge*and*of*its*producing*a*lasting*impact*on*the*
outcome*of*the*transition"*(55)
○
Italy,*Chile,*Argetina,*and*Uruguay*would*be*candidates*for*experiencing*such*a*
phenomenon*during*transition
§
Portugal*,Venezuela*(in*the*1950s)*and*Peru*suggest*a*concurrent*hypothesis:*where*popular*
mobilizations*have*not*been*a*strong*feature*of*the*past*and*where*the*institutional*
structure*of*civil*society*has*been*weak,*a*strong*popular*upsurge*may*also*be*facilitated*
§
In*such*cases,*the*very*absence*of*well-established*political*identities*and*the*sheer*novelty*
of*the*groups*which*emerge*in*response*to*liberalization*may*make*it*easier*for*individuals*
to*identify*as*equals*and*for*groups*to*temporarily*avoid*conflicts*over*which*form*of*
political*organization*is*going*to*predominate
§
But*leaves*behind*a*persistent*problem*for*ensuing*consolidation*of*democracy*(56)M
In*the*process*of*structuring*the*options*of*the*transitions*and*taming*the*popular*
sector,*one*event*plays*a*more*important*and*immediate*role*than*all*others:*the*
convocation*of*elections
M
The*popular*upsurge*performs*the*crucial*role*of*pushing*the*transition*further*than*it*would*
otherwise*have*gone
§
Where*widespread*and*recurrent*popular*mobilizations*have*occurred*in*the*past*and*have*been*
suppressed*by*the*advent*of*authoritarian*rule,*and*wehre*something*like*a*subterranean*network*
of*preexisting*associations,*unions,*movements,*and*parties*persists*behind*the*façade*of*"social*
peace",**a*strong*popular*upsruge*is*more*likey*to*occur
○
Resurrecting*Civil*Society@
25",;&$.;"%(,$7,"0"%()$+.,1&)+C.,;'&()".,($,%"+("&,.('C",)+,(5",;$0)()%'0,3&'#'B,',;$.)()$+,$7,
;&$#)+"+%",(5'(,(5"?,'&",.<1."O<"+(0?,0)>"0?,($,$%%<;?,7$&,.$#",()#",HUiI
§
R7,)(,1"0)"-"3,(5'(,(5",(&'+.)()$+'0,'<(5$&)(?,)+("+3.,($,%$+-$>","0"%()$+.,'+3,)(,1"%$#".,%&"3)10",
(5'(,-$("&.,A)00,1",&"'.$+'10?,7&"",)+,(5")&,%5$)%",H"9).()+C,'+3,7<(<&",;'&()".,A)00,1",7&"",($,%$#;"(",
1?,;<(()+C,7$&(5,'0("&+'()-",%'+3)3'(".,'.,(5"?,."",7)(,66 (5"+,&"0'()$+.,1"(A""+,%$+("+3)+C,7'%()$+.,
'+3,7$&%".B,)+.)3",'+3,$<(.)3",(5",&"C)#"B,1"C)+,%5'+C)+C,&';)30?
○
Transitions*are*littered*with*examples*of*authoritarian*soft-liners*who*overestimated*their*popular*
support:*the*Argentine*military*in*1973,*the*Brazilian*generals*in*1974,*the*Portuguese*MFA*in*
1975,*the*Uruguayan*junta*in*1980,*the*Turkish*military*in*1983
○
Since*the*number*of*elected*positions*is*limited,*the*nubmer*of*competing*parties*also*tends*to*be*
limited.*The*sheer*logic*of*putting*together*symbols*capable*of*attracting*sufficient*votes*and*
crossing*the*numerical*threshold*necessary*for*gaining*representation*ensure*such*a*limitation
○
Thus,*parties,*whether*revived*or*emergent*(at*least*those*who*estimate*having*a*good*
chance*of*obtaining*representation)
§
Show*themselves*to*be*not*only,*or*not*so*much,*agents*of*mobilization*as*instruments*of*
social*and*political*control
§
Moreover,*the*prospect*of*elections*shifts*attention*to*a*new*issue*-- namely,*the*definition*
of*the*rules*under*which*the*contest*takes*place*[..]*For*their*chance*to*strike*the*best*
possible*deal*for*themselves,*given*their*calculations*about*the*identity*and*location*of*their*
projected*supporters,*most*parties*are*willing*to*pay*a*price.*This*price*often*involves*
entering*into*implicit*compromises*or*explicit*pacts*with*the*transitional*regime*and*with*
other*parties*and*toning*down*their*more*militant*supporters.
§
b"C)#",$;;$+"+(.B,;&$-)3"3,(5"?,1"0)"-", (5"?,5'-",.$#",%5'+%",$7,C')+)+C,&";&"."+('()$+B,5'-",
.(&$+C,)+%"+()-".,($,%$$;"&'(",A)(5,(5",&"C)#"Q.,.$7(60)+"&.B,)7,$+0?,($,C<&'+("",(5'(,"0"%()$+,A)00,1",
5"03/,25).,7&"O<"+(0?,)+-$-0".,3"#$1)0)*)+C,&'3)%'0,$&,#)0)('+(,C&$<;.,A5)%5,#'?,;&$-)3",&"C)#",
$;;$+"+(.,A)(5,5'&36%$&",.<;;$&(B,1<(,A5$.",'%()$+.,66 ;'&()%<0'&0?,(5$.",)+-$0-)+C,-)$0"+%",'+3,
4"9%"..)-"4,'%()-).#,)+,(5",.(&""(.,'+3,A$&>,;0'%".,66 #)C5(,3).%&"3)(,(5"#,)+,(5","?".,$7,#$&",
#$3"&'(",;$("+()'0,.<;;$&("&.,'+3m$&,D"$;'&3)*",5$03)+C,(5","0"%()$+.,'(,'00
○
V0'..)%'0,3"#$%&'()%,(5"$&?L,"(5)%'0,.<;"&)$&)(?,$7,<+'+)#)(?,"9;&".."3,1?,'+,'.."#10"3,
%)()*"+&?
§
25"$&?,$7,0)1"&'0, 3"#$%&'%?L,'%()-",%)()*"+.,A$<03,"0"%(,'+3,5$03,'%%$<+('10",)+3)-)3<'0,
&";&"."+('()-".,A5$,A$<03B,)+,(<&+B,;&$3<%",.<1.('+()-"0?,.<;"&)$&,3"%).)$+,(5&$<C5,"9("+.)-",
;<10)%,3"0)1"&'()$+,'#$+C,(5"#."0-".
§
These*actors*compete*in*such*a*way*that*those*who*win*greater*electoral*support*will*
exercise*their*temporary*political*superiority*in*such*a*way*as*not*to*impede*those*
who*may*win*greater*support*in*the*future*from*taking*office;*and*those*who*lose*in*
the*present*agree*to*respect*the*contingent*authority*of*the*winners*to*make*binding*
decision,*in*exchange*for*beign*allowed*to*take*office*and*make*decision*in*the*future*
(59)
M
Citizens*will*presumably*accept*a*democracy*based*on*such*a*competition,*provided*its*
outcome*remains*contingent*upon*their*collective*preferences*as*expressed*through*
fair*and*regular*elections*of*uncertain*outcome*(59)
M
V$+("#;$&'&?,(5"$&)".,$7,3"#$%&'%?L,;0'%",(5",1<&3"+,$7,%$+."+(,<;$+,;'&(?,"0)(".,'+3,
;&$7"..)$+'0,;$0)()%)'+.,A5$,'C&"",'#$+C,(5"#."0-".B,+$(,$+,"(5)%'0,$&,.<1.('+()-",C&$<+3.B,
1<(,$+,(5",;&$%"3<&'0,+$&#,$7,%$+()+C"+%?
§
First,*it*is*important*to*determine*which*parties*will*be*permitted*to*play*this*game
§
"Workable*majorities*vs.*accurate*representation"M
Second*dimension*concerns*the*formula*selected*for*the*distribution*of*seats*within*
constituencies.*
§
Third*dimension*in*this*nonexhaustive*listing*concerns*the*structure*of*office*for*which*
national*elections*are*held*(two*historical*alternatives*have*been*parliamentarism*and*
presidentialism
§
k<'+,^)+*L,5'.,#'3",%$+-)+%)+C,%'.",(5'(,;&".)3"+()'0).#,D"$;'&3)*".,3"#$%&'()%,%$+.$0)3'()$+,
1"%'<.",)(,+'&&$A.,'-')0'10",$;()$+.B,%&"'(".,*"&$6.<#,.)(<'()$+.B,".('10).5".,.)+C0",EFG,
3).%$<&'C".,(5",3"-"0$;#"+(,$7,;'&(?,$&C'+)*'()$+,'+3,3).%);0)+"B,&).>.,;&$-$>)+C,',.('0"#'(",
)7,;'&0)'#"+(,7'00.,)+($,(5",5'+3.,$7,'+,$;;$.)+C,;'&(?,$&,;'&()".B,'+3,&"3<%".,(5",70"9)1)0)(?, $7,
C$-"&+#"+(.,($,&".;$+3,($,%&).".,A)(5,.5)7(.,)+,;"&.$++"0,'+3,;$0)%?,H[d6[TI
§
The*Production*of*Contingent*Consent
○
Convoking*Elections*(and*Provoking*Parties)@
25",&".<0(.,$7,3"#$%&'()%,"0"%()$+.,%'++$(,1",;&"3)%("3,7&$#,(5",&<0".,<+3"&,A5)%5,(5"?,'&",
%$+3<%("3B,)7,(5"?,%$<03,(5"?,A$<03,+$(,1",3"#$%&'()%
○
l$("&.,A)00,5'-",&"0'()-"0?,0)((0","9;"&)"+%",)+,%5$$.)+C,'#$+C,%'+3)3'(".
§
]'&(?,)3"+()7)%'()$+,A)00,1",A"'>"&,'+3,%'+3)3'(",)#'C".,<+%0"'&
§
=$#",A)00,A).5,($,-$(",7$&,%'+3)3'(".,'+3,;'&()".,(5'(,#$.(,3"%).)-"0?,&"D"%(,(5",;&"-)$<.,
&"C)#",H[TI
§
2<&+$<(,).,-"&?,5)C5
§
V'.".,$7,]$&(<C'0B,e&""%"B,'+3,=;')+L,)+,(5".",%$<+(&)".B,(5",.<;;$."3,7&""*",)+,;'&().'+,
'0)C+#"+(.,O<)%>0?,(5'A"3B,'+3,(5"&",A"&",&"#'&>'10",-$(",.5)7(.,)+,.<1."O<"+(,"0"%()$+.
§
8$3"&+,.('(",).,#<%5,#$&",%0$."0?,%$<;0"3,($,(5",#'%&$;"&7$&#'+%",$7,(5",%$<+(&?Q.,
%';)('0).(,"%$+$#?,(5'+,5'.,1""+,(5",%'.",)+(,"5,;'.(
M
l$("&.,'&",(5"&"7$&",#$&",0)>"0?,($,;<+).5,)+%<#1"+(.B,$7,(5",^"7(,$&,(5",b)C5(B,7$&,A5'(,
(5"?,;"&.")-",'.,#).#'+C"#"+(,$7,"%$+$#)%,'77')&.
M
25",%$+("#;$&'&?,=$<(5"&+,X<&$;"'+,%'.".,.5$A,(5'(,&$('()$+,7&$#,41$<&C"$).4,($,=$%)'0).(,
;'&(?,3$#)+'+%",H'+3,-)%",-"&.',)+,]$&(<C'0I,#'?,%$#",.<&;&).)+C0?,O<)%>0?
§
N5?,).,(5).,<+%"&(')+(?,.$,5)C5,'7("&,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",)+,7$<+3)+C,"0"%()$+.\
○
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7&""0?,%$+3<%("3B,5$+".(0?,('1<0'("3B,'+3,$;"+0?,%$+(".("3B,?"(,(5")&,&".<0(.,%'++$(,1",($$,'%%<&'(",
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3)77)%<0(,7$&,(5"#,($,;&$-",(5'(,(5"?,)+("+3,($,&"#')+,7')(57<0,($,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?/2$,3$,(5).B,(5"?,
#'?,5'-",($,#'>",%$+%"..)$+.,A5)%5,+"C'()-"0?,'77"%(,(5",)+("&".(.,$7,(5")&,.<;;$&("&.
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In*the*non-revolutionary*transitions*we*are*discussing,*there*is*an*asymmetry*between*the*two*
camps.*The*right*must*be*prepared*to*sacrifice*immediate*material*interests*and*be*capable*of*
overcoming*its*short*term*symbolic*disadvantage.*The*left*is*called*upon*to*underutilize*its*
immediate*symbolic*advantage*and*to*sacrifice,*or*at*least*to*postpone*for*an*undefined*period,*
the*goal*of*a*radical,*"advanced*democratic"*transformation
○
Impact*of*Founding*Elections@
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#'?,<.",($,C')+,'%%"..,($,C$-"&+)+C,&$0".B,(5",#"'+.,(5"?,%'+,0"C)()#'("0?,"#;0$?,)+,(5")&,%$+70)%(.,
A)(5,"'%5,$(5"&B,(5",;&$%"3<&".,(5"?,.5$<03,';;0?,)+,('>)+C,3"%).)$+.B,'+3,(5",%&)("&)',(5"?,#'?,<.",
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'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#",#'?,1",+")(5"&,+"%"..'&?,+$&,.<77)%)"+(,($,"+.<&",(5",)+.('<&'()$+,$7,'+$(5"&,
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Metaphor*of*a*multilayered*chess*game
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A5'(,'((&)1<(".,'<(5$&)*",'%($&.,($,1",;0'?"&.B,A5'(,'.."(.,"+()(0",;0'?"&.,($,$A+,A5)%5,;)"%".B,'+3,
A5'(,%$#1)+'()$+,$7,'.."(.,'00$A,'+,'%($&,$&,%$'0)()$+,$7,'%($&.,($,%$+(&$0,(5",%"+(&'0,;'&(,$7,(5",
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%"&('+,;'&(.,$7,(5",1$'&3,$<(6$761$<+3.,66 ]'%(.,.<%5,'.,(5",Punto*Fijo*in*Venezuela*and*La*Moncloa*
in*Spain '&","9'#;0".,$7,1$<+3'&?,#')+("+'+%",1"(A""+,;$0)()%'0,$(5"&,.%)'0,'+3,"%$+$#)%,
)+.()(<()$+.,H[`I
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Democratic*norm*of*contingent*consent*vs.*authoritarian*rules*of*personal*whim*or*state*security
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V$+%0<3)+C,A)(5,',8"(';5$&@
K)&.(B,(5",;0'?"&.,#<.(,1",%$#;"00"3,1?,(5",%)&%<#.('+%".,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,($,%$#;"(",7$&,
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="%$+3B,(5$.",;0'?"&.,3$,+$(,5'-",($,5'-",'((')+"3,',;&)$&,%$+."+.<.,$+,3"#$%&'()%,-'0<".,
1"7$&",#<.%0)+C,(5")&,A'?,)+($,(5",C'#"/,25"?,%'+,1",#'3",($,&".;"%(,(5",&<0".,(5'(,"#"&C",
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This*is*another*way*of*saying*that*political*democracy*is*produced*by*stalemate*and*dissensus*
rather*than*by*prior*unity*and*consensus.*It*emerges*from*the*interdependence*of*conflictual*
interests*and*the*diversity*of*discordant*ideals,*in*a*context*which*encourages*strategic*interaction*
among*wary*and*weary*actors
○
DESPITED*DEMOCRATIC*BREAKDOWN*OFTEN*BEING*CAST*IN*"STRUCTURALIST*TERMS,"*
"TRANSITION*TOWARD*DEMOCRACY*IS*BY*NO*MEANS*A*LINEAR*OR*A*RATIONAL*PROCESS.*THERE*
IS*SIMPLY*TOO*MUCH*UNCERTAINTY*ABOUT*CAPABILITIES*AND*TOO*MUCH*SUSPICION*ABOUT*
INTENTIONS*FOR*THAT.*Only*once*the*transition*has*passed*and*citizens*have*learned*to*tolerate*
its*contingent*compromises*can*one*expect*political*democracy*to*induce*a*more*reliable*
awareness*of*convergent*interests*and*to*create*a*less*suspicious*attitude*toward*each*other's*
purposes,*ideas,*and*ideals.*
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%$<&.",$7,(&'+.)()$+B,(5",#'D$&,;'&()%);'+(.,'+3,(5",3$#)+'+(,)+70<"+%".,)+,"-"&?,%'.",5'-",1""+,+'()$+'0/,
25"?,3"#$+.(&'(",(5",)#;$&('+%",$7,)+.()(<()$+.B,$7,#"3)'()+C,;&$%"3<&".,'+3,7$&<#.,(5'(,5"0;,#'>",(5",
&<0".,$7,;$0)()%'0,3).%$<&.",0"C)()#'(", '+3,%&"3)10",)+,',;"&)$3,$7,%5'+C"/,25"?,)00<.(&'(", (5",-)('0,
.)C+)7)%'+%",$7,;$0)()%'0,0"'3"&.5);,'+3,D<3C"#"+(,$7,(5",&$0",$7,.)+C0",)+3)-)3<'0.,)+,%$#;0"9,5).($&)%'0,
;&$%".."./,25"?,;$)+(,$<(B,'C')+,'+3,'C')+B,(5",)#;$&('+%",$7,()#)+C,EFG4,H7$&"A$&3I
@
"Transitions*can*also*develop*into*widespread,*violent*confrontations,*eventually*giving*way*
to*revolutionary*regimes*which*promote*changes*going*far*beyond*the*political*realm"*(3)
§
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.<%%"..)-",C$-"&+#"+(.,%$<03,7')0,($,;&$-)3",;&"3)%('10",.$0<()$+.,($,(5",;&$10"#,$7,
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§
There*are*insufficient*structural*or*behavioral*parameters*to*guide*and*predict*the*
outcome
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During*these*periods*of*transitions,*it*is*impossible*to*predict*which*classes,*
sectors,*institutions,*and*other*groups*will*take*what*role,*opt*for*which*issues,*
or*support*what*alternative (find*cases*to*back*this*up*-- such*as*rich*landowners*
buying*votes,*etc.)
®
"This*includes*transitions*from*authoritarian*rule.*The*increasingly*free*expression*of*
interests*and*ideals*following*liberalization,*the*variations*and*shifts*in*the*
configuration*of*power*and*benefit*within*the*authoritarian*regime,*and*the*high*
indeterminacy*of*interactions,*strategies,*and*outcomes*are,*among*other*
characteristics*[…]*crucial*reasons*for*the*inadequacy*of*using*"normal"*social*science*
concepts*and*approaches*to*analyze*such*situations"*(4)
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NOT*AFTER*1945,*HOWEVER.
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$7,A5)%5,)#;0?,(5'(,0"C)()#'(", ;$0)()%'0,3$#)+'()$+,%'+,$+0?,1",(5","9;&"..)$+,$7,;$;<0'&,
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;&";$("+(,'+3,#$+$0)(5)%,&"C)#",)+,=$-)"(,S+)$+,66Y,0"3,($,'<(5$&)('&)'+,0"'3"&.,(5)+>)+C,(5"?,%$<03,
H.$#",3)3I,;&$#$(",(5"#."0-".,'.,0$+C6("&#,.$0<()$+.,($,(5",;&$10"#.,$7,;$0)()%'0,$&3"&,'+3,'.,(5",
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$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",).,;$..)10",'+3,3".)&'10"B,)7,+$(,1?,&"D"%()+C,$<(&)C5(,'00,3"#$%&'()%,
7$&#.B,(5"+,1?,"&"%()+C,.$#",7'Z'3",1"5)+3,A5)%5,(5"?,%'+,#')+(')+,)+-)$0'(",(5",
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Once*a*transition*has*begun,*even*after*political*democracy*has*been*
established,*this*nucleus*of*unconditional*authoritarians*is*likely*to*remain*the*
stubborn*source*of*attempted*coups*and*conspiracies*(16)
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8')+,%$&",$7,5'&360)+"&.,).,7$&#"3,1?,(5$.",A5$,&"D"%(,-).%"&'00?,(5",4%'+%"&.4,'+3,
3).$&3"&.4,$7,3"#$%&'%?,'+3,A5$,1"0)"-",(5"?,5'-",',#)..)$+,($,"0)#)+'(",'00,(&'%".,$7,
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Hard-liners*(duros)
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8'?,1","O<'00?,3).;$."3,($,<.",&";&"..)$+,'+3,($,($0"&'(",(5",'&1)(&'&?,'%(.,$7,(5",
';;&$;&)'(",#)+).(&?,$&,."%<&)(?,'C"+%?
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8'?,1",)+3).()+C<).5'10",7&$#,5'&360)+"&.,)+,(5",7)&.(,4&"'%()-"4,;5'.",$7,(5",
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#"
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"What*turns*them*into*soft-liners*is*their*increasing*awareness*that*the*regime*they*
helped*to*implant,*and*in*which*they*usually*occupy*important*positions,*will*have*to*
make*use,*in*the*foreseeable*future,*of*some*degree*or*some*form*of*electoral*
legitimation"*(16)
M
"If*its*eventual*legitimation*is*to*be*feasible,*the*regime*cannot*wait*too*long*before*
introducing*certain*freedoms,*at*least*to*the*extent*acceptable*to*moderate*segments*
of*the*domestic*opposition*and*of*international*public*opinion"*(16)
M
R7,(5)+C.,'&",C$)+C,A"00B,A5?,)+(&$3<%",+"A,'%($&.,'+3,<+%"&(')+()".\
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Why*risk*the*"achievements*of*the*regime"*for*the*sake*of*the*fuzzy*long-
term*advantages*advocated*by*the*soft-liners?*This*is*the*typical*argument*
used*by*hard-liners,*technocrats,*and*many*others*who*prefer*to*continue*
enjoying*the*perquisites*of*unchallenged*authoritarian*rule,*against*the*
soft-liners
◊
Argentina*1976-1983*-- couldn't*miss*the*opportunity,*since*they*achieved*
so*few*successes
◊
"The*most*favorable*occasions*for*attempting*liberalization*come*at*periods*of*
high*economic*conjuncture,*in*which*the*soft-liners*hope*that*the*regime's*
effectiveness*will*be*transferred*into*popular*support*for*the*regime*during*the*
transition.*But*these*are*the*periods*during*which*the*soft-liners*are*likely*to*find*
less*support*for*-- and*to*be*less*self-convinced*of*-- their*goals."*(16)
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25",()#)+C,$7,',7)&.(,."&)$<.,'(("#;(,'(,0)1"&'0)*'()$+,;$.".,',;'&'3$9,(5'(,A"'>"+.,(5",
;&$.;"%(.,7$&,&"C)#",)+%<#1"+(.,3<&)+C,(&'+.)()$+
M
4Soft-liners*distinguish*themselves*form*hard-liners*by*proclaiming*that*some*form*of*
democracy*is*the*necessary*outcome*of*the*authoritarian*episode*that*they*
'unfortunately'*had*to*impose"*(17)
M
The*hard-liners*tend*to*have*more*weight*in*the*initial*phases,*all*the*more*so*
where*the*threat*and*preceding*crisis*have*been*the*most*severe.*This*implies*a*
tendency*for*a*greater*and*more*systematic*use*of*repression*and*the*
probability*that*there*will*be*a*more*extensive*effort*to*eradicate*the*
institutions*of*previous*democratic*experiences
®
Soft-liners*emerge*with*their*recognition*that,*at*some*point*in*the*future,*some*
kind*of*political*"opening"*will*be*necessary
®
The*motives*and*circumstances*under*which*an*authoritarian*regime*came*to*power*
can*have*a*lasting*effect*on*its*eventual*outcome"*(17)
M
Soft-liners*(blandos)
§
Hard-liners*and*Soft-liners
○
Moreover,*the*factor*which*most*probabilistically*assured*a*democratic*outcome*to*
the*transition*was*occupation*by*a*foreign*power*which*was*itself*a*political*
democracy*(18)
M
W%%$&3)+C,($,]5)00);;",=%5#)(("&,'+3,^'<&"+%",N5)("5"'3B,(5",#$.(,7&"O<"+(,%$+("9(,A)(5)+,
A5)%5,',(&'+.)()$+,7&$#,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",5'.,1"C<+,)+,&"%"+(,3"%'3".,5'.,1""+,#)0)('&?,
3"7"'(,)+,'+,)+("&+'()$+'0,%$+70)%(
§
]$&(<C'0,"9'#;0"L (5",)#;"+3)+C,3"7"'(,$7,)(.,%$0$+)'0,;&"("+.)$+.,A'.,',#'D$&,7'%($&,)+,
1&)+)+C,3$A+,(5",'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#"/,X-"+,(5"&"B,'.,_"++"(5,8'9A"00Q.,%5';("&,)+3)%'(".B,
3$#".()%,%$+70)%(.,'+3,#$()-".,A"&",)#;$&('+(,7'%($&.,)+,(5",&"C)#"Q.,)+'1)0)(?,($,3"7"+3,)(."07,
'C')+.(,A5'(,A'.B,'7("&,'00B,)+)()'00?, ',;<(.%5,1?,',.#'00,C&$<;,$7,D<+)$&,'&#?,$77)%"&.,HT`I
§
In*all*the*other*cases,*the*reasons*for*launching*a*transition*can*be*found*predominately*in*
domestic,*internal*factors*(18)
§
"What*brings*down*a*democracy*is*not*the*inverse*of*those*factors*that*bring*down*an*
authoritative*regime*-- and*the*same*can*be*said*for*the*successful*consolidation*of*
these*respective*regime*types"*(18).
M
25"?,&"%$C+)*",(5'(,;$0)()%'0,'+3,.$%)'0,;&$%"..".,'&",+")(5"&,.?##"(&)%,+$&,&"-"&.)10",HT`I
§
Hope,*opportunity,*choice,*incorporation*of*new*actors,*shaping*and*renewal*of*
political*identities,*inventiveness*
®
"one*of*the*basic*arguments*(which*we*share)*of*the*Juan*Linz*and*Alfred*Stepan*
volume*to*which*we*have*just*made*implicit*reference,*is*that*none*of*those*
breakdowns*was*fatalistically*bound*to*occur,*that*is,*they*could*have*been*
avoided*if*some*strategic*decision*had*been*made*and*especially*if*some*crucial*
mistakes*had*not*been*committed"*(19)
®
Crucial*personae*during*the*breakdown*period*seem*like*actors*in*a*Greek*
tragedy*[…]*anticipating*their*fate*but*fulfilling*it*to*the*bitter*end,*powerless*
either*to*modify*their*solidarities,*alliances,*and*styles,*or*to*control*the*
international,*macroeconomic,*macrosocial,*and*institutional*factors*that*led*
toward*the*breakdown*(18)
®
In*contrast,*the*uncertainties,*risks,*and*deficits*of*information*characteristic*of*
the*transition*away*from*authoritarian*rule*have*as*their*counterpart*a*context*
of*expanding*(if*uncertain)*choices,*of*widespread*hopes,*of*innumerable*
experiments*toward*the*expansion*of*the*political*arena,*and*of*manifold*levels*
of*social*participation*(19)
®
What*actors*do*and*do*not*do*seems*much*less*tightly*determined*by*"macro"*
structural*factors*during*the*transitions*we*study*here*than*during*the*
breakdown*of*democratic*regimes*(19)
®
N5'(,C)-".,%5'&'%("&).()%, 70'-$&,($,#'+?,#$#"+(.,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+\,25","9<0('+(,
7""0)+C,H"-"+,)7,)(,).,<.<'00?,O<)(","9'CC"&'("3I,(5'(,(5",7<(<&",).,$;"+B,'+3,(5'(,(5",
)3"'0.,'+3,3"%).)$+,%$<+(,'.,#<%5,'.,)+("&".(.,'+3,.(&<%(<&"./,
®
"But*the*main*reason*for*this*asymmetry*[…]*the*high*degree*of*indeterminacy*of*
social*and*political*action*and*the*inordinate*degrees*of*freedom*that*collective*and*
even*individual*action*may*have*at*some*momentous*junctures*of*the*transition"*(19)
M
The*liberalization*and*eventual*democratization*of*authoritarian*regimes*may*have*its*
conspiratorial*side,*but*it*also*involves,*as*we*shall*see,*a*crucial*component*of*mobilization*
and*organization*of*large*numbers*of*individuals,*thereby*attenuating*the*role*of*external*
factors"*(18)
§
In*these*two*countries,*the*decision*to*liberalize*was*made*my*high-echelon,*
dominant*personnel*in*the*incumbent*regime*in*the*face*of*a*weak*and*
disorganized*opposition.*Portugal offers*a*slight*variant*on*this*scenario,*in*that*
the*"openers"*came*from*the*middle*echelon*of*the*military,*who*were*quickly*
compelled*by*the*ensuing*spontaneous*popular*mobilization*not*just*to*liberalize*
but*to*democratize.*
®
Brazil*and*Spain*-- cases*of*such*a*direct*causalityM
"The*"decision*to*open"*was*heavily*influenced*by*the*presence*of*strong*
opposition*forces*in*the*civilian*population.*Nevertheless,*several*putschs*and*
purges*had*to*occur,*in*the*government*and*in*the*armed*forces,*before*the*soft-
liners*acquired*sufficient*control*over*governmental*and*military*positions*to*be*
able*to*implement*such*a*decision"*(19-20)
®
Greece,*Peru,*Argentina*(circa*1970)M
"We*assert*that*there*is*no*transition*whose*beginning*is*not*the*consequence*-- direct*or*
indirect*-- of*important*divisions*within*the*authoritarian*regime*itself,*principally*along*the*
fluctuating*cleavage*between*hard-liners*and*soft-liners*(19)
§
a$(,D<.(,$;;$+"+(.,1<(,#$.(,$7,(5$.",A)(5)+,(5",&"C)#",%$+%0<3"3,(5'(,(5",
"9;"&)"+%", $7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",A'.,',&".$<+3)+C,7')0<&","-"+,'%%$&3)+C,($,
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.()#<0'("3,($,'%(,1"%'<.",(5",7')0<&",A'.,.$,$1-)$<./,b<0)+C,C&$<;.B,
)+%0<3)+C,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".B,A"&",0"..,'+3,0"..,%$+7)3"+(,$7,(5")&,$A+,
%';'%)()".B,'.,A"00,'.,3"";0?,7&'C#"+("3,1?,&"%&)#)+'()$+.,$-"&,A5$,A'.,
&".;$+.)10",7$&,(5",&"C)#"Q.,7')0<&"./,8"3)'($&.,A"&",+$,0$+C"&,A)00)+C,($,
'&1)(&'(",3).."+(,'+3,5$03,%$'0)()$+.,($C"(5"&/,K'%"3,A)(5,(5).B,(5",
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"&.,.$<C5(,',&';)3,4;$0)()%'0, $<(0"(/4,25).,C'-",'#;0",&$$#,
($,(5",.$7(60)+"&.B,7$&,A5$#,)(,.""#"3,0"..,&).>?,($,0'<+%5,(5",%$<+(&?,)+($,
0)1"&'0)*'()$+B,'+3,"-"+,3"#$%&'()*'()$+B,(5'+,($,%$+()+<",.(&<CC0)+C,
)+70"9)10?,'+3,)+"77"%()-"0?,'C')+.(,',&).)+C,()3",$7,$;;$.)()$+B,7"3,1?,
3"7"%()$+,7&$#,(5",&"C)#"Q.,&'+>.,HcdI
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'((')+)+C,"0"%($&'0, &'()7)%'()$+,'+3,;$;<0'&,0"C)()#'()$+,7$&,A5'(,5'.,
'0A'?.,1""+,(5",#$.(,."+.)()-",)+("&+'0,#'+'C"#"+(,;&$10"#,7$&,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"&.B,+'#"0?B,.<%%"..)$+,($,($;,"9"%<()-", $77)%"/
}
BrazilL,+$(,$+0?,A"&",.$#",$7,(5",g&'*)0)'+,#)0)('&?,0"3,($,;&"7"&,
0)1"&'0)*'()$+,1?,(5")&,$A+,7'%()$+'0).#B,1<(,)+,(5","'&0?,ThidQ.,;'&(,$7,
(5",1<&C"$).)",$;("3,7$&,0)#)("3,3"#$%&'()*'()$+,$<(,$7,%$+%"&+,$-"&,
(5","9;'+.)$+,'+3,C&$A)+C,'<($+$#?,$7,.('(",'C"+%)".,A5)%5,5'3,
'%%$#;'+)"3,"%$+$#)%,C&$A(5,3<&)+C,(5",;&"-)$<.,'<(5$&)('&)'+,
3"%'3"
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A'.,'0.$,;&";'&"3,($,.<;;$&(,',(&'+.)()$+,7&$#,)(B,"-"+,#$&",.$,.)+%",
)(,A'.,.""+,'.,',&"O<).)(",($,"-"+(<'0,"+(&?,)+($,(5",X<&$;"'+,
V$##<+)(?,66 1<(,(5","9'%(,()#)+C,$7,)(.,$%%<&&"+%",A'.,%$+()+C"+(,
<;$+,',.;"%)7)%,"-"+(B,(5",3"'(5,$7,K&'+%).%$,K&'+%$/
}
W<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,(5'(,5'3,1""+,&"0'()-"0?,.<%%"..7<0,'+3,5"+%",5'3,
"+%$<+("&"3,',0"..,'%()-",'+3,'CC&"..)-",$;;$.)()$+,$;("3,7$&,(5",(&'+.)()$+,
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g&'*)0,'+3,=;')+,-./,]"&<B,e&""%"B, '+3,W&C"+()+'M
The*general*point*remains:*those*regimes*that*felt*themselves*successful*were*those*in*
which*the*decision*to*embark*on*a*transition*was*taken*without*a*high*degree*of*prior*
internal*disaggregation*or*external*pressure*(21)
M
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7&$#,(5",$(5"&,"9;"&)"+%".,A",5'-","9'#)+"3/,W0.$B,)(,';;0)"3,$+0?,#$3"&'(",&";&"..)$+,
'+3,#'3",7"A,%5'+C".,)+,5'1)(<'0,;'(("&.,)+,(5).,&"C'&3/
M
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W&C"+()+' A'.,%5'&'%("&)*"3,1?,',0$A,0"-"0,$7,;&"-)$<.,(5&"'(B,(5",'#1)C<$<.,&$0",;0'?"3,
1?,]"&$+).#,'+3,(5",<+)$+.,)+,(5")&,)+)()'0,.<;;$&(,7$&,(5",%$<;B,'+3,1?,5)C5,
"9;"%('()$+.,(5'(,4.$%)'0,;"'%"4,'+3,3"-"0$;#"+(,A$<03,1",&"0'()-"0?,"'.?,($,'%5)"-"j,
5"+%",(5",0"-"0,$7,&";&"..)$+,A'.,&"0'()-"0?,0$A,HcdI/,
M
Conversely,*no*transition*can*be*forced*purely*by*opponents*against*a*regime*
which*maintains*the*cohesion,*capacity,*and*disposition*to*apply*repression.*
Perpetuation*in*power*or*armed*revolutionary*struggle*become*the*only*likely*
outcomes*of*such*cases.*On*the*other*hand,*where*the*cost*of*acting*in*dissent*is*
rather*low,*but*the*objective*performance*and*subjective*confidence*of*the*
regime*are*high,*a*transition*is*not*likely*to*occur,*and*when*it*does,*it*is*bound*
to*be*restricted*initially*to*rules*and*issues*which*the*authoritarian*rulers*feel*
they*can*control (USE*THIS)
®
a$+",$7,(5".",C"+"&'0)*'()$+.,"9%0<3",(5",;$..)1)0)(?,$7,'%%)3"+(.,3",;'&%$<&.,)+,
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&".<0(.
®
Regime-confident,*self-initiated*scenario:*the*sequence,*rhythm,*and*scope*of*
liberalization*and*democratization*tend*to*remain*more*firmly*in*the*control*of*
incumbents*(and,*therefore,*occur*more*slowly*and*with*less*generalized*
uncertainty)
®
Opposition-induced*scenario:*the*social*and*political*forces*which*supported*the*
authoritarian*regime*stand*a*better*chance*of*playing*a*significant*electoral*and*
representational*role*in*the*subsequent*regime*(21)
®
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%$+(&$0,$7,(5",'C"+3','+3,()#)+C,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+/,25).,.<CC".(.,(5'(,A5"&",3).."+(,).,
5)C5,'+3,&"C)#",."076%$+7)3"+%",0$AB,<+0"..,(5",%$.(,$7,$&C'+)*)+C,).,&')."3B,(5",0'(("&,).,
0)>"0?,($,5'-",%$#;'&'()-"0?,5)C5,)+70<"+%",$-"&,(5",&<0".,'+3,(5",)..<".,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,
HcTI
M
4a$&,%'+,(5",()#)+C,$7,'+,$;"+)+C,($A'&3,0)1"&'0)*'()$+,1",%$&&"0'("3,;&"3)%('10?,A)(5,(5",
;"&7$&#'+%",$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"&.,)+,#""()+C,.$%)$"%$+$#)%,C$'0./,g$(5,&"0'()-",.<%%"..,'+3,
&"0'()-",7')0<&",5'-",%5'&'%("&)*"3,(5".",#$#"+(.B,'0(5$<C5,'3#)(("30?B,.('+3'&3.,'&",5)C50?,
.<1D"%()-"B,'+3,"-'0<'()$+.,'&",0)>"0?,($,3)77"&,1$(5,)+.)3",'+3,$<(.)3",(5",&"C)#"4
§
Context*for*Transitional*Openings
○
Opening*(and*Undermining)*Authoritarian*Regimes@
Portugal:*Manuel*Antionio*Garretón*argues*in*his*chapter*that*a*similar*situation*might*occur*
in*Chile*in*the*event*of*a*liberalization*-democratization*of*the*Pinochet*dictatorship*(the*
longevity*of*such*regimes*and/or*the*ruthlessness*with*which*they*eradicated*national*
political*institutions*and*local*autonomies*meant*that*the*transition*faced*almost*a*tabula*
rasa,*or*blank*state)
§
Brazil:*no*serious*attempt*was*made*to*create*distinctively*authoritarian*institutions.*
Rather,*the*generals*who*have*governed*Brazil*since*1964*hadthe*good*sense*to*rule*
largely*by*distorting*rather*than*by*disbanding*the*basic*institutions*of*political*
democracy.*Previous*parties*were*banned,*but*their*quasi-resurgence*was*tolerated*
under*the*all-embracing*rubrics*of*an*official*two-party*system.*Parliament*was*
periodically*closed*own*and*had*little*to*do*with*legislation*and*policy-making,*but*it*
did*function*most*of*the*time*and*gradually*acquired*effective*authority.*Candidacies*
were*controlled,*but*elections*were*held*fairly*regularly,*especially*at*the*local*level,*
were*competition*remained*lively.*Thus,*by*the*time*the*liberalization*(abertura)*was*
signaled*by*the*relaxation*of*censorship*in*1972,*and*then*launched*with*the*1974*
elections,*some*channels*of*organized*political*expression*were*already*in*place.*
Admittedly*all*this*was*carefully*monitored*by*the*regime,*regressions*did*occur*when*
"undesirable"*results*happened*or*even*seemed*likely,*and*the*transition*has*gone*
much*slower*than*elsewhere.*Nevertheless,*the*role*of*representative*institutions*
grew*steadily,*to*the*point*that*opposition*parties*became*heavily*represented*in*
Congress*and*controlled*several*important*state*governorships.*Nevertheless,*until*
1984,*they*were*denied*the*opportunity*to*compete*under*democratic*rules*for*the*
highest*national*executive*office*(22-23)
M
Brazil*and*Peru:*shorter*duration,*the*structures*and*even*the*personnel*inherited*from*the*
previous*democracies*have*shown*a*surprising*capacity*for*revival.
§
Italy:*Fascists*in*power*for*20*years,*the*king,*the*military,*and*even*the*Fascist*Grand*
Council*played*a*crucial*role*-- for*good*and*for*ill*-- in*ensuring*some*continuity*during*the*
transitional*period,*as*Gianfranco*Pasquino*shows.
§
Spain:*the*institutions*and*legislation*of*the*Franco*regime,*with*roots*in*previous*Spanish*
experience,*were*of*major*importance.*The*Cortes,*its*personnel*unchanged,*committed*the*
extraordinary*act*of*voting*its*own*extinction*and*opening*the*way*for*the*establishment*of*
democratic*institutions.*In*addition,*the*person*of*the*king*and*the*institution*of*the*crown*
were*essential*in*providing*a*central*focus*which*consistently*supported*the*transition*and*
was*accepted*by*almost*all*as*being*above*party,*faction,*and*particular*interests*(22)
§
Latin*America (as*well*as*Greece):*did*more*to*undermine*the*institutions*of*the*more-or-less*
democratic*regimes*which*preceded*them*than*the*longer-lived*and*ideologically*stronger*
authoritarianisms*of*Italy,*Spain*,*and*Portugal.*The*former*regimes*have*often*destroyed*
previous*institutions*and*practices*without*replacing*them*with*alternative*forms*of*
representation,*decision-making,*or*policy*implementation*[…]*Additional*factors*seem*to*be*
extreme*fear*of*the*"chaos"*which*preceded*authoritarian*rule*in*Latin*America*and*the*
much*stronger*military*component*in*these*countries*as*compared*with*Italy,*PortugaL,*and*
even*Spain,*which*probably*made*them*more*hostile*to*any*form*of*civilian*political*
representation.*(22)*
§
"Once*liberalization*has*been*chosen*-- for*whatever*reason*and*under*whatever*degree*of*
control*by*incumbents*[…]*[there*exists]*the*fear*of*a*coup*that*would*not*only*cut*short*the*
transition*but*impose*a*regression*to*an*even*more*restrictive*and*regressive*mode*of*
governance
§
W+$(5"&,)#;$&('+(,"0"#"+(,3)77"&"+()'()+C,(5",%'.".,)+,(5".",-$0<#".,%$+%"&+.,(5","9("+(,($,A5)%5,
&";&"."+('()-",)+.()(<()$+.,66 ;$0)()%'0,;'&()".B,.$%)'0,#$-"#"+(.B,)+("&".(,'..$%)'()$+.B,'<($+$#$<.,
'C"+%)".B,0$%'0,C$-"&+#"+(.,66 5'-",.<&-)-"3,7&$#,(5",;"&)$3,;&)$&,($,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"/,
○
The*Preauthoritarian*Legacy@
If*there*is*one*characteristic*common*to*all*our*cases*it’s*the*omnipresent*fear*during*the*
transition,*and*often*long*after*the*political*democracy*has*been*installed,*that*a*coup*will*be*
attempted*and*succeed.
○
These*actors,*the*hard-liners,*fear*that*the*transition*and*political*democracy*are*bound*to*lead*to*
an*abyss,*and*are*prepared*to*force*at*any*cost*a*return*to*the*good*old*times*of*order,*social*
peace,*and*respect*for*authority*[…]*However*divided*these*proponents*and*supporters*may*be*on*
substantive*and*procedural*issues,*they*share*an*overriding*interesting*in*avoiding*a*coup.*Indeed,*
this*provides*a*crucial*convergence,*which*may*lead*to*explicit*or*implicit*cooperation*among*
these*actors*(24)
○
Fearing*the*Present@
W(,(5",1"C)++)+C,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,A)(5)+,(5",&"C)#",5'-",',.(&$+C,5'+3,)+,&"0'()$+,($,
(5",$;;$.)()$+,HcPI
○
25).,("+3.,($,A"'>"+,'+3,3)-)3",(5",;&$;$+"+(.,$7,7<&(5"&,3"#$%&'()*'()$+/,N5'(,7$&%".,(5",%'&3.,
($,(5",('10",).,(5",C&$A)+C,"-)3"+%",(5'(B,)7,',%$<;,3$".,)+3""3,$%%<&B,(5",5'&360)+"&.,A)00,+$(,$+0?,
5'-",($,&";&"..,(5",&"C)#"Q.,$;;$+"+(.,1<(,A)00,'0.$,5'-",($,$-"&(5&$A,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,A)(5)+,)(.,
&'+>./,25",7'%()$+'0).#,$7,(5",&"C)#",).,0)>"0?,($,)+%&"'.",($,(5",;$)+(,(5'(,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,%$#",($,
&"%$C+)*",(5",)+("&".(,(5"?,.5'&",A)(5,(5",$;;$.)()$+,)+,'-$)3)+C,',&"(<&+,($,7<00670"3C"3,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"B,"-"+,)7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,(<&+.,$<(,($,"9("+3,1"?$+3,(5",;$0)()%'0,7$&#.,'+3,;$0)%?,
)..<".,(5"?,)+)()'00?,(&)"3,($,)#;$."/,8$&"$-"&B,1?,%$+()+<)+C,A)(5,(5",(&'+.)()$+B,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,%'+,
>"";,'0)-",(5",5$;",(5'(,(5"?,A)00,"-"+(<'00?,1",'10",($,%$+(&$0,(5",;&$%"..,'+3,;&$("%(,(5")&,
)+("&".(.,HcP6cUI
○
That*those*who*begin*the*transition*by*threatening*a*coup*become*the*principal*guarantors*
against*such*an*outcome*is*one*of*the*numerous*paradoxes*of*our*theme*(25)
○
Playing*Coup*Poker@
25",4$;"+)+C4,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",<.<'00?,;&$3<%".,',.5'&;,'+3,&';)3,)+%&"'.",)+,C"+"&'0,
;$0)()%)*'()$+,'+3,;$;<0'&,'%()-'()$+,66 4(5",&".<&&"%()$+,$7,%)-)0,.$%)"(?4,H:Q!$++"00I,6c[
○
25).,%0'..,%$+-"&C"+%"B,'0$+C,A)(5,.<)('10?,)+%0)+"3,"0"#"+(.,A)(5)+,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".B,).,',
+"%"..'&?,66 )7,+$(,.<77)%)"+(,66 %$+3)()$+,7$&,',.<%%"..7<0,'<(5$&)('&)'+,.")*<&",$7,;$A"&B,'C')+.(,
1$(5,',3"#$%&'()%,&"C)#",'+3,',(&'+.)()$+'0,$+"/
§
4W.,A'.,.<CC".("3,1?,(5",.(<3?,$7,(5",1&"'>3$A+,$7,3"#$%&'%?B,'+,'<(5$&)('&)'+,)+70"%()$+,1?,',
0'&C",;'&(,$7,(5",1$<&C"$).)",).,<.<'00?,'%%$#;'+)"3,1?,'+$(5"&,.?#;($#,$7,)#;"+3)+C,3'+C"&L,(5",
#$1)0)*'()$+,$7,#)330",."%($&.,)+,7'-$&,$7,',%$<;,(5'(,A)00,1&)+C,4$&3"&4,($,.$%)"(?4,,HciI
○
The*Cycle*of*Mobilization@
R+,(5",%'.".,'+'0?*"3,5"&"B,(5",&".;"%()-",'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,';;0)"3B,'(,0"'.(,7$&,.$#",;"&)$3,$7,
(5")&,"9).("+%"B,."-"&",'+3,%$+.).("+(,%$"&%)$+,($,1&$'3,."C#"+(.,$7,(5",;$;<0'()$+B,'+3,"-"+,#$&",
.?.("#'()%,'+3,7$%<."3,&";&"..)$+,($,;'&()%<0'&,;'&()".B,$&C'+)*'()$+.B,'+3,)+3)-)3<'0.,A5)%5,(5"?,
5"03,&".;$+.)10",7$&,(5",4%5'$.,'+3,%$&&<;()$+4,(5'(,;&"%"3"3,(5")&,.")*<&",$7,;$A"&/,Hc`I
○
Fascist*Italy,*Salazar's*Portugal,*Franco's*Spain 66 (5",#$.(,3)&"%(,'+3,43)&(?4,('.>.,A"&",
"9"%<("3,1?,',;$0)()%'0,;$0)%",+$(,7$&#'00?,.<1$&3)+'("3,($,(5",#)0)('&?,".('10).5#"+(
§
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(5")&,;"&.$+.,$&,(5")&,)+.()(<()$+'0,)+("C&)(?
M
f'-)+C,)+(&<3"3,0"..,)+($,(5",'3#)+).(&'()-",'+3,7<+%()$+'0,';;'&'(<.,$7,(5",.('("B,(5"?,
5'3,',0"..,(&'<#'()%,'3D<.(#"+(,($,#'>",)+,(5")&,)+3)-)3<'0,%'&""&.,$&,;&$7"..)$+'0,
.(&<%(<&".,A5"+,$&3"&"3,($,&"(<&+,($,(5")&,1'&&'%>.
M
25).,7'%)0)('("3,(5")&,"-"+(<'0,'%%";('+%",$7,',3"#$%&'()%,$;"+)+C,7$&,(A$,&"'.$+.L,
§
R+,%$+(&'.(B,(5",%'.".,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",5"&","95)1)(.,',#$&",3)&"%(,'+3,<+'#1)C<$<.,
0)+>,1"(A""+,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,'+3,(5",%$##)..)$+,$7,&";&"..)-",'%(.
M
g&'*)0,'+3,V5)0"L,(5",3)&()".(,'%(.,A"&",%$##)(("3,1?,#$&",$&,0"..,.;"%)'0)*"3, <+)(.,A)(5)+,
(5",'&#"3,7$&%".
M
Latin*America*and*Greece
§
W,7)&.(,3)77"&"+%",5)+C".,$+,A5"(5"&,$&,+$(,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,'.,.<%5,A"&",3)&"%(0?,&".;$+.)10",7$&,
#$.(,$7,(5",'%(.,$7,&";&"..)$+/,
○
25",.5""&,#'C+)(<3",'+3,4O<'0)(?4,$7,;5?.)%'0,&";&"..)$+,66 (5",3"C&"",($,A5)%5,;'&()%<0'&0?,
&";<0.)-",'%(.,A"&",%$##)(("3B,'+3,(5","9("+(,($,A5)%5,%0"'&0?, )++$%"+(,;"&.$+.,.<77"&"3/,25",#$&",
1&<('0B,)+5<#'+"B,'+3,"9("+.)-",A"&",(5",&";&"..)-",'%()$+.B,(5",#$&",(5")&,'%(<'0,;"&;"(&'($&.,66
(5",)+.()(<()$+.,)+-$0-"3,'+3,(5$.",;"&.$+.,A5$,%$00'1$&'("3,)+,(5"#,$&,.<;;$&("3,(5"#,66 7""0,
(5&"'("+"3,,'+3,A)00,("+3,($,7$&#,',10$%,$;;$.)+C,'+?,(&'+.)()$+/
○
4g<(,"-"+,<+3"&,(5",A$&.(,$7,%)&%<#.('+%".,66 5"'-?,'+3,&"%"+(,$%%<&&"+%"B,'+3,5"'-?,'+3,
A)3".;&"'3,#)0)('&?,%$#;0)%)(?B,'.,)+,%$+("#;$&'&?,W&C"+()+',66 A",1"0)"-",(5'(,(5",A$&.(,$7,1'3,
.$0<()$+.,A$<03,1",($,(&?,($,)C+$&",(5",)..<",EFG,g?,&"7<.)+C,($,%$+7&$+(,'+3,($,;<&C",)(."07,$7,)(.,
A$&.(,7"'&.,'+3,&"."+(#"+(.B,.<%5,',.$%)"(?,A$<03,1",1<&?)+C,+$(,D<.(,)(.,;'.(,1<(,(5",-"&?,"(5)%'0,
-'0<".,)(,+""3.,($,#'>",)(.,7<(<&",0)-'10"/4,HJdI
○
Selling*a*Past*Account*(without*Upsetting*a*Present*Transition)@
N",5'-",.<CC".("3,.$#",+"%"..'&?,%$+3)()$+.,7$&,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,($,7)+3,'+3,&"(')+,',4+$&#'04,
)+.()(<()$+'0,.('(<.,A)(5)+,',7<+%()$+)+C,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?L,(5"?,#<.(,.$#"5$A,1",)+3<%"3,($,
#$3)7?,(5")&,#"..)'+)%,."076)#'C"j,(5"?,#<.(,1",C)-"+,',%&"3)10", '+3,5$+$&'10",&$0",)+,'%%$#;0).5)+C,
H1<(,+$(,."(()+CI,+'()$+'0,C$'0.j,'+3,(5"?,#<.(,1",#'3",#$&",)#;"&-)$<.,($,(5","+()%"#"+(.,$7,
%)-)0)'+,;$0)()%)'+.,A5$,(<&+,($,(5"#,A5"+,7&<.(&'("3,)+,(5",'3-'+%"#"+(,$7,(5")&,)+("&".(.,1?,
3"#$%&'()%,#"'+.,HJcI
○
Our*factual*conclusion*-- stated*above*as*a*normative*preference*-- is*that*for*such*countries*the*
only*route*to*political*democracy*is*a*pacific*and*negotiated*one,*based*on*the*initial*liberalization*
and*on*the*subsequent*introduction*of*institutions*of*electoral*competition,*interest*
representation,*and*executive*accountability*-- with*the*costs,*trade-offs,*and*uncertainties*such*a*
course,*as*we*shall*see,*entails*(34)
○
Defusing*(but*Not*Necessarily*Disarming)*the*Military@
25",K&'+%$,&"C)#",#'?,5'-",1""+,#'&>"30?,#)0)('&?,)+,)(.,$&)C)+.B,1<(,1?,(5",()#",$7,)(.,
(&'+.7$&#'()$+B,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,5'3,1"%$#",$+0?,$+",$7,(5",."-"&'0,"0"#"+(.,)+,A5'(,k<'+,^)+*,
5'.,%'00"3,)(.,40)#)("3,;0<&'0).#4
○
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(5",&"C)#"/,=<%5,)+3)-)3<'0.,%'++$(,)#'C)+",(5'(,(5",%$<+(&?,%$<03,3$,A)(5$<(,(5")&,."&-)%"./,R+,+$,
%'.",5'.,',(&'+.)()$+,1""+,)+)()'("3,$&,C<)3"3,1?,$+",$7,(5".",%'<3)00$./,25",$+0?,A'?,$<(,.""#.,($,
(5&$A
○
Our*conclusion,*then,*is*that*there*are*conditional*possibilities*for*coaxing*the*military*out*of*
power*and*inducing*the*to*tolerate*a*transition*toward*democracy.*The*most*difficult*immediate*
problems*are*how*to*administer*justice*to*those*directly*responsible*for*past*acts*of*repression*
and*how*to*assert*some*degree*of*civilian*control*over*decision*about*promotion*and*resource*
allocation*within*the*armed*forces.*As*we*argued*before,*the*longer-term*issues*-- and*hopes*--
involve*a*gradual*change*in*the*military's*image*of*itself*as*ultimate*guardian*of*the*national*
interest*and*a*shift*from*preoccupation*with*internal*security*to*some*more*credible*and*orthodox*
role*as*defender*of*the*country's*(or*the*regions')*external*security*(36).
○
Degree*of*Militarization*of*the*Authoritarian*Regime@
Pact:*an*explicit,*but*not*always*publicly*explicated*or*justified,*agreement*among*a*select*set*of*
actors*which*seeks*to*define*rules*governing*the*exercise*of*power*on*the*basis*of*mutual*
guarantees*for*the*"vital*interests"*(37)
○
R+,0)#)("3,3"#$%&'%)".,)(,).,(5",%)-)0)'+,';;'&'(<.,$7,;$0)()%'0,;'&()".B,)+("&".(,'..$%)'()$+.B,'+3,
C$-"&+#"+(,'C"+%)".,(5'(,).,.<1D"%(,($,3"%'?,HPcI
○
=$#",W#"&)%'+,;$0)()%'0,.%)"+().(.,5'-",'&C<"3,(5'(,4%&)()%'0,"0"%()$+.4,)+-$0-)+C,.<1.('+()'0,
&"'0)C+#"+(.,)+,(5",.$%)'0,1'.".,$7,;'&(?,.<;;$&(,5'-",;&$-)3"3,'+,"O<)-'0"+(,#"%5'+).#,$7,
3"#$%&'()%,&".;$+.)-"+"..,)+,<+()"3,=('(".,;$0)()%./,
○
All*of*the*unpacted*democracies*existing*at*different*times*in*other*Latin*American*countries*were*
destroyed*by*authoritarian*reversals.*It*is*worth*noting,*too,*that*the*social*costs*of*those*
democratic*and*authoritarian*alternations*have*been*as*bad*as*or*even*worse*than*those*of*the*
pacted*democracies*of*Venezuela*and*Colombia.*On*the*other*hand,*the*transitions*in*the*
contemporary*scene*-- those*of*Peru,*Bolivia,*Ecuador,*the*DR,*and*Argentina*-- are*characterized*
by*the*absence*of*political*(and*economic)*pacts.*The*least*that*can*be*said*about*these*cases*is*
that*the*prospects*of*consolidation*of*their*democratic*regimes*look*less*encouraging*than*those*
of*Southern*Europe.*The*present*and*future*probably*exception*is*Brazil,*where*what*we*term*a*
"military*pact"*and*a*"political*pact"*were*clearly*if*not*explicitly*made,*and*where*an*economic*
pact*may*still*be*likely.*Aside*from*other*characteristics*already*noted,*what*differentiates*Brazil*
from*the*other*Latin*American*cases*is*the*relative*success*of*its*authoritarian*regime*and,*hence,*
the*firm*and*inordinately*enduring*control*that*its*transitional*government*have*been*able*to*keep*
on*the*process*(45).
○
25).,3$".,+$(,;&"%0<3",(5'(B,)+,'+,"77$&(,($,.'0-'C",(5$.",.5'>?,3"#$%&'%)".B,;$0)()%'0, '+3,"%$+$#)%,
;'%(.,#'?,1",'(("#;("3,)+,(5",7<(<&",66 1<(,(5).,0"'3.,<.,'A'?,7&$#,(5",(5"#",$7,3"#$%&'()%,
)+.('00'()$+,($A'&3,(5'(,$7,%$+.$0)3'()$+,HPUI
○
Negotiating*and*Renegotiating*Pacts@
e"(()+C,(5",#)0)('&?,1'%>,($,(5")&,1'&&'%>.,'+3,.<1D"%(,($,%)-)0)'+, %$+(&$0,'+3,C"(()+C,;$0)()%'0,;'&()".,
($,%$#;"(",'%%$&3)+C,($,(5",&<0".,$7,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?,'&",.<77)%)"+(,'%5)"-"#"+(.,($,"+.<&",
.)C+)7)%'+(,&"C)#",%5'+C"
○
If*there*are*any*lessons*to*be*gleaned*from*analogous*efforts*by*consolidated*political*democracies*
at*pursuing*incomes*and*other*"concerted"*neocorporatist*policies,*it*is*that*success*depends*on*
the*presence*of*authoritative,*monopolistic,*and*centralized*class*associations*sharing*a*high*
degree*of*consensus*about*macroeconomic*goals.*
○
Whether*or*not*such*undemocratic*means*of*negotiating*(and*renegotiating)*agreements*will*be*
compatible*with*a*viable*political*democracy*is*not*simply*a*function*of*whether*the*governments,*
political*parties,*and*class*associations*can*somehow*reach*and*implement*them.*These*efforts*
may*be*helped*or*nullified*by*the*forces*of*civil*society*which*tend*to*erupt*in*the*aftermath*of*the*
initial*steps*toward*liberalization.*
○
The*Economic*Moment@
Those*privileged*sectors*who*were*among*the*regime's*earliest*supporters*and*who,*at*least*
initially,*were*among*its*main*beneficiaries*may*come*to*the*conclusion*that*the*authoritarian*
regime*is*dispensable.*They*may*feel*that*they*regime*has*accomplished*what*it*set*out*to*
achieve*-- that*is,*what*they*wished*to*do*-- and*that*by*perpetuating*itself*longer*than*necessary,*
it*is*incurring*the*risk*of*social*polarization*and*violent*popular*reaction*(50)
○
But*the*greatest*challenge*to*the*transitional*regime*is*likely*to*come*from*the*new*or*revived*
identities*and*capacity*for*collective*action*of*the*working*class*and*low-ranking,*often*unionized,*
employees.*Not*surprisingly,*this*is*the*area*to*which*liberalization*is*extended*most*hesitantly*
and*least*irreversibly*(52)
○
4]$;<0'&,S;.<&C"4,66 (&'3",<+)$+.B,C&'..6&$$(.,#$-"#"+(.B,&"0)C)$<.,C&$<;.B,)+("00"%(<'0.B,'&().(.B,
%0"&C?#"+B,3"7"+3"&.,$7,5<#'+,&)C5(.B,'+3,;&$7"..)$+'0,'..$%)'()$+.,'00,.<;;$&(,"'%5,$(5"&Q.,"77$&(.,
($A'&3,3"#$%&'()*'()$+,'+3,%$'0".%",)+($,',C&"'(,A5$0",A5)%5,)3"+()7)".,)(."07,'.,4(5",;"$;0"4
○
^)((0","-)3"+%",$7,(5).,)+,=;')+,$&,e&""%"
§
R+,g&'*)0B,A5"&",(5).,;5"+$#"+',&"%")-"3,.$,#<%5,'(("+()$+B,A'.,&".(&%)("3,($,='$,]'<0$,'+3,
(5",V"+("&,=$<(5B,1<(,3)3,+$(,&"'%5,5)C5,0"-"0.,'+3,.<1.)3"3,O<)(",&';)30?
§
25",3)-"&.",0'?"&.,$7,'+,'0#$.(,)+.('+(0?,'%()-'("3,'+3,;$0)()%)*"3,%)-)0,.$%)"(?,3)3,
)+("&'%(B,($,.<;;$&(,'+3,.()&,"'%5,$(5"&,($,3"#'+3,7<&(5"&,"9("+.)$+.,)+,A5'(,A'.,%'00"3,
4$,;&$%"..$4,HUPI
M
2&'+.)()$+,A'.,;<.5"3,7'&,1"?$+3,0)1"&'0)*'()$+B,1"?$+3,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'()*'()$+B,'+3,
'0#$.(,($,.$%)'0)*'()$+/,g?,7'00,$7,ThiU,;$0)()%'0,<;.<&C",%&".("3,'+3,(&'+.)()$+,."((0"3,
M
The*successful*choreography*by*the*Armed*Forces*Movement*(MFA)*seems*to*have*
greatly*contributed*to*the*Portuguese*transition
M
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]$&(<C'0,H)+,'7("&#'(5,$7,ThiP,&"-$0<()$+I,&";&"."+(.,#$.(,"9(&"#",)+.('+%",)+,.'#;0",$7,.<%5,
.;$+('+"$<.,$<(;$<&)+C,$7,"C'0)('&)'+,.$0)3'&)(?,'+3,"+(5<.)'.#
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§
l"+"*<"0'L,ThU`,;"$;0",&$.",)+,#'..)-",.(&)>".,A5)%5,;'&'0?*"3,(5",A5$0",%$<+(&?,'+3,7$&%"3,
',.<&&"+3"&,$7,;$A"&,1?,]"&"*,k)#"+"*
§
f';;"+)+C,)+,;&"."+(,3'?,V5)0"
§
=$#",%$<+(&)".,.""#,($,5'-",0'&C"0?,#).."3,(5'(,"<;5$&)%,#$#"+(,A5"+,',-'.(,#'D$&)(?,$7,(5",
;$;<0'()$+,7""0,1$<+3,($C"(5"&,$+,"O<'0,("&&#.B,.(&<CC0)+C,7$&,(5",%$##$+,C$'0,$7,%&"'()+C,+$(,
#"&"0?,',+"A,;$0)(?,1<(,',+"A,.$%)'0,$&3"&
○
Their*common*identity*as*"the*people"*may,*upon*reflection*or*when*faced*with*concrete*
policy*choices,*be*fragmented*by*class,*status,*gender,*religion,*ethnicity,*language,*
generation,*ideological*belief,*and*partisan*allegiance
§
Hence,*where*the*transition*is*controlled*relatively*firmly*and*protractedly*by*incumbents,*
the*popular*upsurge*is*less*likely*to*occur,*and*where*it*does,*it*tends*to*be*more*confined*in*
space*and*time
§
Portugal:*half-heartedness*of*the*Spinola*coup*of*September*1974*and*the*confusion*
of*the*coup*and*countercoup*in*November*of*the*following*year
M
It*also*seems*that*the*relative*absence*of*this*upsurge*reduces*the*likelihood*of*a*coup-
induced*regression,*
§
"Our*cases*suggest*that*the*shorter*and*the*more*unexpected*the*transition*from*authoritarian*
rule,*the*greater*the*likelihood*of*popular*upsurge*and*of*its*producing*a*lasting*impact*on*the*
outcome*of*the*transition"*(55)
○
Italy,*Chile,*Argetina,*and*Uruguay*would*be*candidates*for*experiencing*such*a*
phenomenon*during*transition
§
Portugal*,Venezuela*(in*the*1950s)*and*Peru*suggest*a*concurrent*hypothesis:*where*popular*
mobilizations*have*not*been*a*strong*feature*of*the*past*and*where*the*institutional*
structure*of*civil*society*has*been*weak,*a*strong*popular*upsurge*may*also*be*facilitated*
§
In*such*cases,*the*very*absence*of*well-established*political*identities*and*the*sheer*novelty*
of*the*groups*which*emerge*in*response*to*liberalization*may*make*it*easier*for*individuals*
to*identify*as*equals*and*for*groups*to*temporarily*avoid*conflicts*over*which*form*of*
political*organization*is*going*to*predominate
§
But*leaves*behind*a*persistent*problem*for*ensuing*consolidation*of*democracy*(56)M
In*the*process*of*structuring*the*options*of*the*transitions*and*taming*the*popular*
sector,*one*event*plays*a*more*important*and*immediate*role*than*all*others:*the*
convocation*of*elections
M
The*popular*upsurge*performs*the*crucial*role*of*pushing*the*transition*further*than*it*would*
otherwise*have*gone
§
Where*widespread*and*recurrent*popular*mobilizations*have*occurred*in*the*past*and*have*been*
suppressed*by*the*advent*of*authoritarian*rule,*and*wehre*something*like*a*subterranean*network*
of*preexisting*associations,*unions,*movements,*and*parties*persists*behind*the*façade*of*"social*
peace",**a*strong*popular*upsruge*is*more*likey*to*occur
○
Resurrecting*Civil*Society@
25",;&$.;"%(,$7,"0"%()$+.,1&)+C.,;'&()".,($,%"+("&,.('C",)+,(5",;$0)()%'0,3&'#'B,',;$.)()$+,$7,
;&$#)+"+%",(5'(,(5"?,'&",.<1."O<"+(0?,0)>"0?,($,$%%<;?,7$&,.$#",()#",HUiI
§
R7,)(,1"0)"-"3,(5'(,(5",(&'+.)()$+'0,'<(5$&)(?,)+("+3.,($,%$+-$>","0"%()$+.,'+3,)(,1"%$#".,%&"3)10",
(5'(,-$("&.,A)00,1",&"'.$+'10?,7&"",)+,(5")&,%5$)%",H"9).()+C,'+3,7<(<&",;'&()".,A)00,1",7&"",($,%$#;"(",
1?,;<(()+C,7$&(5,'0("&+'()-",%'+3)3'(".,'.,(5"?,."",7)(,66 (5"+,&"0'()$+.,1"(A""+,%$+("+3)+C,7'%()$+.,
'+3,7$&%".B,)+.)3",'+3,$<(.)3",(5",&"C)#"B,1"C)+,%5'+C)+C,&';)30?
○
Transitions*are*littered*with*examples*of*authoritarian*soft-liners*who*overestimated*their*popular*
support:*the*Argentine*military*in*1973,*the*Brazilian*generals*in*1974,*the*Portuguese*MFA*in*
1975,*the*Uruguayan*junta*in*1980,*the*Turkish*military*in*1983
○
Since*the*number*of*elected*positions*is*limited,*the*nubmer*of*competing*parties*also*tends*to*be*
limited.*The*sheer*logic*of*putting*together*symbols*capable*of*attracting*sufficient*votes*and*
crossing*the*numerical*threshold*necessary*for*gaining*representation*ensure*such*a*limitation
○
Thus,*parties,*whether*revived*or*emergent*(at*least*those*who*estimate*having*a*good*
chance*of*obtaining*representation)
§
Show*themselves*to*be*not*only,*or*not*so*much,*agents*of*mobilization*as*instruments*of*
social*and*political*control
§
Moreover,*the*prospect*of*elections*shifts*attention*to*a*new*issue*-- namely,*the*definition*
of*the*rules*under*which*the*contest*takes*place*[..]*For*their*chance*to*strike*the*best*
possible*deal*for*themselves,*given*their*calculations*about*the*identity*and*location*of*their*
projected*supporters,*most*parties*are*willing*to*pay*a*price.*This*price*often*involves*
entering*into*implicit*compromises*or*explicit*pacts*with*the*transitional*regime*and*with*
other*parties*and*toning*down*their*more*militant*supporters.
§
b"C)#",$;;$+"+(.B,;&$-)3"3,(5"?,1"0)"-", (5"?,5'-",.$#",%5'+%",$7,C')+)+C,&";&"."+('()$+B,5'-",
.(&$+C,)+%"+()-".,($,%$$;"&'(",A)(5,(5",&"C)#"Q.,.$7(60)+"&.B,)7,$+0?,($,C<&'+("",(5'(,"0"%()$+,A)00,1",
5"03/,25).,7&"O<"+(0?,)+-$-0".,3"#$1)0)*)+C,&'3)%'0,$&,#)0)('+(,C&$<;.,A5)%5,#'?,;&$-)3",&"C)#",
$;;$+"+(.,A)(5,5'&36%$&",.<;;$&(B,1<(,A5$.",'%()$+.,66 ;'&()%<0'&0?,(5$.",)+-$0-)+C,-)$0"+%",'+3,
4"9%"..)-"4,'%()-).#,)+,(5",.(&""(.,'+3,A$&>,;0'%".,66 #)C5(,3).%&"3)(,(5"#,)+,(5","?".,$7,#$&",
#$3"&'(",;$("+()'0,.<;;$&("&.,'+3m$&,D"$;'&3)*",5$03)+C,(5","0"%()$+.,'(,'00
○
V0'..)%'0,3"#$%&'()%,(5"$&?L,"(5)%'0,.<;"&)$&)(?,$7,<+'+)#)(?,"9;&".."3,1?,'+,'.."#10"3,
%)()*"+&?
§
25"$&?,$7,0)1"&'0, 3"#$%&'%?L,'%()-",%)()*"+.,A$<03,"0"%(,'+3,5$03,'%%$<+('10",)+3)-)3<'0,
&";&"."+('()-".,A5$,A$<03B,)+,(<&+B,;&$3<%",.<1.('+()-"0?,.<;"&)$&,3"%).)$+,(5&$<C5,"9("+.)-",
;<10)%,3"0)1"&'()$+,'#$+C,(5"#."0-".
§
These*actors*compete*in*such*a*way*that*those*who*win*greater*electoral*support*will*
exercise*their*temporary*political*superiority*in*such*a*way*as*not*to*impede*those*
who*may*win*greater*support*in*the*future*from*taking*office;*and*those*who*lose*in*
the*present*agree*to*respect*the*contingent*authority*of*the*winners*to*make*binding*
decision,*in*exchange*for*beign*allowed*to*take*office*and*make*decision*in*the*future*
(59)
M
Citizens*will*presumably*accept*a*democracy*based*on*such*a*competition,*provided*its*
outcome*remains*contingent*upon*their*collective*preferences*as*expressed*through*
fair*and*regular*elections*of*uncertain*outcome*(59)
M
V$+("#;$&'&?,(5"$&)".,$7,3"#$%&'%?L,;0'%",(5",1<&3"+,$7,%$+."+(,<;$+,;'&(?,"0)(".,'+3,
;&$7"..)$+'0,;$0)()%)'+.,A5$,'C&"",'#$+C,(5"#."0-".B,+$(,$+,"(5)%'0,$&,.<1.('+()-",C&$<+3.B,
1<(,$+,(5",;&$%"3<&'0,+$&#,$7,%$+()+C"+%?
§
First,*it*is*important*to*determine*which*parties*will*be*permitted*to*play*this*game
§
"Workable*majorities*vs.*accurate*representation"M
Second*dimension*concerns*the*formula*selected*for*the*distribution*of*seats*within*
constituencies.*
§
Third*dimension*in*this*nonexhaustive*listing*concerns*the*structure*of*office*for*which*
national*elections*are*held*(two*historical*alternatives*have*been*parliamentarism*and*
presidentialism
§
k<'+,^)+*L,5'.,#'3",%$+-)+%)+C,%'.",(5'(,;&".)3"+()'0).#,D"$;'&3)*".,3"#$%&'()%,%$+.$0)3'()$+,
1"%'<.",)(,+'&&$A.,'-')0'10",$;()$+.B,%&"'(".,*"&$6.<#,.)(<'()$+.B,".('10).5".,.)+C0",EFG,
3).%$<&'C".,(5",3"-"0$;#"+(,$7,;'&(?,$&C'+)*'()$+,'+3,3).%);0)+"B,&).>.,;&$-$>)+C,',.('0"#'(",
)7,;'&0)'#"+(,7'00.,)+($,(5",5'+3.,$7,'+,$;;$.)+C,;'&(?,$&,;'&()".B,'+3,&"3<%".,(5",70"9)1)0)(?, $7,
C$-"&+#"+(.,($,&".;$+3,($,%&).".,A)(5,.5)7(.,)+,;"&.$++"0,'+3,;$0)%?,H[d6[TI
§
The*Production*of*Contingent*Consent
○
Convoking*Elections*(and*Provoking*Parties)@
25",&".<0(.,$7,3"#$%&'()%,"0"%()$+.,%'++$(,1",;&"3)%("3,7&$#,(5",&<0".,<+3"&,A5)%5,(5"?,'&",
%$+3<%("3B,)7,(5"?,%$<03,(5"?,A$<03,+$(,1",3"#$%&'()%
○
l$("&.,A)00,5'-",&"0'()-"0?,0)((0","9;"&)"+%",)+,%5$$.)+C,'#$+C,%'+3)3'(".
§
]'&(?,)3"+()7)%'()$+,A)00,1",A"'>"&,'+3,%'+3)3'(",)#'C".,<+%0"'&
§
=$#",A)00,A).5,($,-$(",7$&,%'+3)3'(".,'+3,;'&()".,(5'(,#$.(,3"%).)-"0?,&"D"%(,(5",;&"-)$<.,
&"C)#",H[TI
§
2<&+$<(,).,-"&?,5)C5
§
V'.".,$7,]$&(<C'0B,e&""%"B,'+3,=;')+L,)+,(5".",%$<+(&)".B,(5",.<;;$."3,7&""*",)+,;'&().'+,
'0)C+#"+(.,O<)%>0?,(5'A"3B,'+3,(5"&",A"&",&"#'&>'10",-$(",.5)7(.,)+,.<1."O<"+(,"0"%()$+.
§
8$3"&+,.('(",).,#<%5,#$&",%0$."0?,%$<;0"3,($,(5",#'%&$;"&7$&#'+%",$7,(5",%$<+(&?Q.,
%';)('0).(,"%$+$#?,(5'+,5'.,1""+,(5",%'.",)+(,"5,;'.(
M
l$("&.,'&",(5"&"7$&",#$&",0)>"0?,($,;<+).5,)+%<#1"+(.B,$7,(5",^"7(,$&,(5",b)C5(B,7$&,A5'(,
(5"?,;"&.")-",'.,#).#'+C"#"+(,$7,"%$+$#)%,'77')&.
M
25",%$+("#;$&'&?,=$<(5"&+,X<&$;"'+,%'.".,.5$A,(5'(,&$('()$+,7&$#,41$<&C"$).4,($,=$%)'0).(,
;'&(?,3$#)+'+%",H'+3,-)%",-"&.',)+,]$&(<C'0I,#'?,%$#",.<&;&).)+C0?,O<)%>0?
§
N5?,).,(5).,<+%"&(')+(?,.$,5)C5,'7("&,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",)+,7$<+3)+C,"0"%()$+.\
○
K$&,',(&'+.)()$+,($,',;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?,($,1",-)'10",)+,(5",0$+C,&<+B,7$<+3)+C,"0"%()$+.,#<.(,1",
7&""0?,%$+3<%("3B,5$+".(0?,('1<0'("3B,'+3,$;"+0?,%$+(".("3B,?"(,(5")&,&".<0(.,%'++$(,1",($$,'%%<&'(",
$&,&";&"."+('()-",$7,(5",'%(<'0,3).(&)1<()$+,$7,-$("&,;&"7"&"+%".,H[cI
○
=$7(60)+"&.,#<.(,1"'&,(5",$+<.,$7,(5")&,%0$.",'..$%)'()$+,A)(5,(5",3"7<+%(,&"C)#"B,'+3,(5).,#'>".,)(,
3)77)%<0(,7$&,(5"#,($,;&$-",(5'(,(5"?,)+("+3,($,&"#')+,7')(57<0,($,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?/2$,3$,(5).B,(5"?,
#'?,5'-",($,#'>",%$+%"..)$+.,A5)%5,+"C'()-"0?,'77"%(,(5",)+("&".(.,$7,(5")&,.<;;$&("&.
○
In*the*non-revolutionary*transitions*we*are*discussing,*there*is*an*asymmetry*between*the*two*
camps.*The*right*must*be*prepared*to*sacrifice*immediate*material*interests*and*be*capable*of*
overcoming*its*short*term*symbolic*disadvantage.*The*left*is*called*upon*to*underutilize*its*
immediate*symbolic*advantage*and*to*sacrifice,*or*at*least*to*postpone*for*an*undefined*period,*
the*goal*of*a*radical,*"advanced*democratic"*transformation
○
Impact*of*Founding*Elections@
25",(&'+.)()$+,).,$-"&,A5"+,4'1+$&#'0)(?4,).,+$,0$+C"&,(5",%"+(&'0,7"'(<&",$7,;$0)()%'0, 0)7"B,(5'(,).B,
A5"+,'%($&.,5'-",."((0"3,$+,'+3,$1"?,',."(,$7,#$&",$&,0"..,"9;0)%)(,&<0".,3"7)+)+C,(5",%5'++"0.,(5"?,
#'?,<.",($,C')+,'%%"..,($,C$-"&+)+C,&$0".B,(5",#"'+.,(5"?,%'+,0"C)()#'("0?,"#;0$?,)+,(5")&,%$+70)%(.,
A)(5,"'%5,$(5"&B,(5",;&$%"3<&".,(5"?,.5$<03,';;0?,)+,('>)+C,3"%).)$+.B,'+3,(5",%&)("&)',(5"?,#'?,<.",
($,"9%0<3",$(5"&.,7&$#,(5",C'#",H[UI
○
25",7'%($&.,(5'(,A"&",+"%"..'&?,'+3,.<77)%)"+(,7$&,;&$-$>)+C,(5",%$00';.",$&,."076(&'+.7$&#'()$+,$7,'+,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#",#'?,1",+")(5"&,+"%"..'&?,+$&,.<77)%)"+(,($,"+.<&",(5",)+.('<&'()$+,$7,'+$(5"&,
&"C)#",66 0"'.(,$7,'00B,',;$0)()%'0, 3"#$%&'%?
○
W+,'%()-"B,#)0)('+(B,'+3,5)C50?,#$1)0)*"3,;$;<0'&,<;.<&C",#'?,1",'+,"77)%'%)$<.,)+.(&<#"+(,7$&,
1&)+C)+C,3$A+,',3)%('($&.5);,1<(,#'?,#'>",.<1."O<"+(,3"#$%&'()%,%$+.$0)3'()$+,3)77)%<0(B,'+3,
<+3"&,.$#",%)&%<#.('+%".,#'?,;&$-)3",'+,)#;$&('+(,#$()-",7$&,&"C&"..)$+,($,'+,"-"+,#$&",1&<('0,
7$&#,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"
○
Metaphor*of*a*multilayered*chess*game
§
K$<+3)+C,"0"%()$+.L,(5"?,'&",'A'&",(5'(,(5")&,#$#"+('&?,%$+7&$+('()$+.B,"9;"3)"+(,.$0<()$+.B,'+3,
%$+()+C"+(,%$#;&$#).".,'&",)+,"77"%(,3"7)+)+C,&<0".,A5)%5,#'?,5'-",',0'.()+C,1<(,0'&C"0?,
<+;&"3)%('10","77"%(,$+,5$A,'+3,1?,A5$#,(5",4+$&#'04,;$0)()%'0,C'#",A)00,1",;0'?",3)+,(5",7<(<&",
H[[I
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'<(5$&)('&)'+,;0'?"&.,.()00,#$+$;$0)*",%$+(&$0,$-"&,(5",;)"%".,$7,$&C'+)*"3,-)$0"+%"B,($,&"#$-",(5")&,
$;;$+"+(.,1?,7$&%"
○
25",(&'+.)()$+,%$+.).(.,)+,)+-"+()+C,(5",&<0".,7$&,.<%5,',#<0()0'?"&"3B,(<#<0(<$<.B,'+3,5<&&)"3,C'#"/,
b<0".,%'+,1",)#;$."3,<+)0'("&'00?, 1?,',3$#)+'+(,'%($&,'+3,(5",$(5"&,;0'?"&.,#'?,$1"?,(5"#,$<(,$7,
7"'&,$&,&"..;"%(B,$&,(5"?,%'+,1","0'1$&'("3,#<0()0'("&'00?,1?,)#;0)%)(,'C&""#"+(.,$&,1?,"9;0)%)(,;'%(./,
b<0".,#'?,'(,.$#",#$#"+(,1",;'%>'C"3,($C"(5"&,)+($,',.)+C0",5'+31$$>,66 (5",%$+.()(<()$+,EFG,W(,
#)+)#<#,(5$.",7$&#'0,'+3m$&,)+7$&#'0,&<0".,%$-"&,(5",7$00$A)+C,;$)+(.L,A5'(,#$-".,'&",;"&#)(("3B,
A5'(,'((&)1<(".,'<(5$&)*",'%($&.,($,1",;0'?"&.B,A5'(,'.."(.,"+()(0",;0'?"&.,($,$A+,A5)%5,;)"%".B,'+3,
A5'(,%$#1)+'()$+,$7,'.."(.,'00$A,'+,'%($&,$&,%$'0)()$+,$7,'%($&.,($,%$+(&$0,(5",%"+(&'0,;'&(,$7,(5",
1$'&3,>+$A+,'.,(5",C$-"&+#"+(,H[`I
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R+,(&'+.)()$+'0,;"&)$3B,0)>"0?,($,1",%$#;0"#"+("3,1?,$(5&,&<0".,A5)%5,0)#)(,(5",C'#",1?,;0'%)+C,
%"&('+,;'&(.,$7,(5",1$'&3,$<(6$761$<+3.,66 ]'%(.,.<%5,'.,(5",Punto*Fijo*in*Venezuela*and*La*Moncloa*
in*Spain '&","9'#;0".,$7,1$<+3'&?,#')+("+'+%",1"(A""+,;$0)()%'0,$(5"&,.%)'0,'+3,"%$+$#)%,
)+.()(<()$+.,H[`I
○
Democratic*norm*of*contingent*consent*vs.*authoritarian*rules*of*personal*whim*or*state*security
○
V$+%0<3)+C,A)(5,',8"(';5$&@
K)&.(B,(5",;0'?"&.,#<.(,1",%$#;"00"3,1?,(5",%)&%<#.('+%".,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,($,%$#;"(",7$&,
.;'%".,'+3,;)"%".B,&'(5"&,(5'+,.(&<CC0)+C,7$&,(5","0)#)+'()$+,$7,$;;$.)+C,;0'?"&.
§
="%$+3B,(5$.",;0'?"&.,3$,+$(,5'-",($,5'-",'((')+"3,',;&)$&,%$+."+.<.,$+,3"#$%&'()%,-'0<".,
1"7$&",#<.%0)+C,(5")&,A'?,)+($,(5",C'#"/,25"?,%'+,1",#'3",($,&".;"%(,(5",&<0".,(5'(,"#"&C",
7&$#,(5",C'#",)(."07
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:<&,'+'0$C?,$7,(5",#<0()0'?"&"3,%5"..,C'#","+(')0.,(A$,7<&(5"&,)#;0)%'()$+.
○
This*is*another*way*of*saying*that*political*democracy*is*produced*by*stalemate*and*dissensus*
rather*than*by*prior*unity*and*consensus.*It*emerges*from*the*interdependence*of*conflictual*
interests*and*the*diversity*of*discordant*ideals,*in*a*context*which*encourages*strategic*interaction*
among*wary*and*weary*actors
○
DESPITED*DEMOCRATIC*BREAKDOWN*OFTEN*BEING*CAST*IN*"STRUCTURALIST*TERMS,"*
"TRANSITION*TOWARD*DEMOCRACY*IS*BY*NO*MEANS*A*LINEAR*OR*A*RATIONAL*PROCESS.*THERE*
IS*SIMPLY*TOO*MUCH*UNCERTAINTY*ABOUT*CAPABILITIES*AND*TOO*MUCH*SUSPICION*ABOUT*
INTENTIONS*FOR*THAT.*Only*once*the*transition*has*passed*and*citizens*have*learned*to*tolerate*
its*contingent*compromises*can*one*expect*political*democracy*to*induce*a*more*reliable*
awareness*of*convergent*interests*and*to*create*a*less*suspicious*attitude*toward*each*other's*
purposes,*ideas,*and*ideals.*
○
V$+%0<.)$+@
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%$<&.",$7,(&'+.)()$+B,(5",#'D$&,;'&()%);'+(.,'+3,(5",3$#)+'+(,)+70<"+%".,)+,"-"&?,%'.",5'-",1""+,+'()$+'0/,
25"?,3"#$+.(&'(",(5",)#;$&('+%",$7,)+.()(<()$+.B,$7,#"3)'()+C,;&$%"3<&".,'+3,7$&<#.,(5'(,5"0;,#'>",(5",
&<0".,$7,;$0)()%'0,3).%$<&.",0"C)()#'(", '+3,%&"3)10",)+,',;"&)$3,$7,%5'+C"/,25"?,)00<.(&'(", (5",-)('0,
.)C+)7)%'+%",$7,;$0)()%'0,0"'3"&.5);,'+3,D<3C"#"+(,$7,(5",&$0",$7,.)+C0",)+3)-)3<'0.,)+,%$#;0"9,5).($&)%'0,
;&$%".."./,25"?,;$)+(,$<(B,'C')+,'+3,'C')+B,(5",)#;$&('+%",$7,()#)+C,EFG4,H7$&"A$&3I
@
"Transitions*can*also*develop*into*widespread,*violent*confrontations,*eventually*giving*way*
to*revolutionary*regimes*which*promote*changes*going*far*beyond*the*political*realm"*(3)
§
:<(%$#".,%'+,1",.)#;0?,1"%'<.",$7,%$+7<.)$+,3<&)+C,(&'+.)()$+,;"&)$3.,66 (5",&$('()$+,$7,;$A"&,)+,
.<%%"..)-",C$-"&+#"+(.,%$<03,7')0,($,;&$-)3",;&"3)%('10",.$0<()$+.,($,(5",;&$10"#,$7,
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%$+.()(<(".,;"&,.",',3".)&'10",C$'0,
§
There*are*insufficient*structural*or*behavioral*parameters*to*guide*and*predict*the*
outcome
M
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M
44N",1"0)"-",(5'(,(5).,Q+$&#'0,.%)"+%",#"(5$3$0$C?Q,).,)+';;&$;&)'(",)+,&';)30?,%5'+C)+C,
.)(<'()$+B,A5"&",(5$.",;'&'#"("&.,$7,;$0)()%'0,'%()$+,'&",)+,70<94,HPI
M
During*these*periods*of*transitions,*it*is*impossible*to*predict*which*classes,*
sectors,*institutions,*and*other*groups*will*take*what*role,*opt*for*which*issues,*
or*support*what*alternative (find*cases*to*back*this*up*-- such*as*rich*landowners*
buying*votes,*etc.)
®
"This*includes*transitions*from*authoritarian*rule.*The*increasingly*free*expression*of*
interests*and*ideals*following*liberalization,*the*variations*and*shifts*in*the*
configuration*of*power*and*benefit*within*the*authoritarian*regime,*and*the*high*
indeterminacy*of*interactions,*strategies,*and*outcomes*are,*among*other*
characteristics*[…]*crucial*reasons*for*the*inadequacy*of*using*"normal"*social*science*
concepts*and*approaches*to*analyze*such*situations"*(4)
M
4R(,).,EFG,$<&,A'?,$7,&"%$C+)*)+C,(5",5)C5,3"C&"",$7,)+3"("&#)+'%?,"#1"33"3,)+,
.)(<'()$+.,A5"&",<+"9;"%("3,"-"+(.B,)+.<77)%)"+(,)+7$&#'()$+B,5<&&)"3,'+3,'<3'%)$<.,
%5$)%".B,%$+7<.)$+,'1$<(,#$()-".,'+3,)+("&".(.B,;0'.()%)(?B,'+3,"-"+,)+3"7)+)()$+,$7,
;$0)()%'0,)3"+()()".B,'.,A"00,'.,(5",('0"+(.,$7,.;"%)7)%,)+3)-)3<'0.B,'&",7&"O<"+(0?,3"%).)-",)+,
3"("&#)+)+C,$<(%$#".
M
25)&3L,4+$&#'0,.%)"+%",#"(5$3$0$C?4,
§
25&"",C"+"&'0,'+3,.5'&"3,(5"#".
○
R+(&$3<%)+C,S+%"&(')+(?@
Ideological*schizophreniaL,(5"?,'&",&"C)#".,(5'(,;&'%()%",3)%('($&.5);,'+3,&";&"..)$+,)+,
(5",;&"."+(,A5)0",;&$#).)+C,3"#$%&'%?,'+3,7&""3$#,)+,(5",7<(<&",HTUI
M
V'+,D<.()7?,(5"#."0-".,)+,;$0)()%'0,("&#.,'.,$+0?,(&'+.)()$+'0,;$A"&.B,A5)0",'(("#;()+C,($,
5)C50)C5(,)##"3)'(",.<1.('+()-",'%%$#;0).5#"+(.B,0)>",4.$%)'0,;"'%"4,$&,"%$+$#)%,
3"-"0$;#"+(
M
NOT*AFTER*1945,*HOWEVER.
§
W.,7$&,(5$.",."%($&.,$7,(5",;$;<0'()$+,(5'(,'&","9%0<3"3,'+3,-)%()#)*"3B,(5",
.%5)*$;5&"+)%,.('#;,$7,(5",&"C)#",$;"+.,(5",)3"$0$C)%'0,.;'%",A)(5)+,A5)%5,(5"?,%'+,
"9;&"..,A5'(,$7("+,1"%$#".,(5")&,7<+3'#"+('0,3"#'+3L,(5",&"#$-'0,$7,(5",
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#",'+3,)(.,&";0'%"#"+(,1?,',3"#$%&'()%,$+"/4,HTUI
M
25).,5';5'*'&3,'(("#;(.,$7,&"C)#".,'(,)+.()(<()$+'0)*)+C,(5"#."0-".,%0'.5,A)(5,(5",
%$+("#;$&'&?,A$&03A)3",4#'&>"(;0'%"4,$7,)3"'.,'+3,1?,"+3<&)+C,3$#".()%,'.;)&'()$+.B,1$(5,
$7,A5)%5,)#;0?,(5'(,0"C)()#'(", ;$0)()%'0,3$#)+'()$+,%'+,$+0?,1",(5","9;&"..)$+,$7,;$;<0'&,
.$-"&")C+(?,$&B,(5",)..<",$7,',&"-$0<()$+'&?,#'+3'(",7$&,3&'#'()%,.$%)'0,(&'+.7$&#'()$+/,
4S+3"&,(5".",%$+3)()$+.B,(5",<.<'0,70<&&?,$7,3"%&""6#'>)+C,'+3,0'A,C"+"&'()$+B,'.,A"00,'.,(5",
1<&"'<%&'()%,"9;'+.)$+B,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,#'?,)+%&"'.",(5")&,)##"3)'(",%';'%)(?,7$&,
%$+(&$0,H'+3,&";&"..)$+IB,1<(,.<%5,"77$&(.,'&",+$(,0)>"0?,($,1",%$+.)3"&"3B,"-"+,1?,)+%$&;$&'("3,
'+3,1"+"7)("3,.$%)'0,'%($&.B,'.,;"&#'+"+(,'&&'+C"#"+(./4,HTUI
§
R+("&A'&,;"&)$3L,0$$>)+C,'(,(5",)#;$("+(,'+3,3)-)3"3,;'&0)'#"+('&?,3"#$%&'%)".,)+,X<&$;",'+3,(5",
;&";$("+(,'+3,#$+$0)(5)%,&"C)#",)+,=$-)"(,S+)$+,66Y,0"3,($,'<(5$&)('&)'+,0"'3"&.,(5)+>)+C,(5"?,%$<03,
H.$#",3)3I,;&$#$(",(5"#."0-".,'.,0$+C6("&#,.$0<()$+.,($,(5",;&$10"#.,$7,;$0)()%'0,$&3"&,'+3,'.,(5",
1".(,;$..)10",#$3".,$7,C$-"&+'+%",7$&,(5")&,.$%)"()".
○
4V$+(&'&?,($,(5",%$+."+.<.,$7,(5).,;"&)$3,$7,A$&03,5).($&?B,1"0)"-",(5'(,(5",;"&;"(<'()$+,
$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",).,;$..)10",'+3,3".)&'10"B,)7,+$(,1?,&"D"%()+C,$<(&)C5(,'00,3"#$%&'()%,
7$&#.B,(5"+,1?,"&"%()+C,.$#",7'Z'3",1"5)+3,A5)%5,(5"?,%'+,#')+(')+,)+-)$0'(",(5",
5)"&'&%5)%'0,'+3,'<(5$&)('&)'+,+'(<&",$7,(5")&,;$A"&4,HT[I
M
=$#",'3$;(,;$.)()$+,$<(,$7,$;;$&(<+).#
®
S.<'00?,%$#;$."3,$7,."-"&'0,7'%()$+.M
Once*a*transition*has*begun,*even*after*political*democracy*has*been*
established,*this*nucleus*of*unconditional*authoritarians*is*likely*to*remain*the*
stubborn*source*of*attempted*coups*and*conspiracies*(16)
®
8')+,%$&",$7,5'&360)+"&.,).,7$&#"3,1?,(5$.",A5$,&"D"%(,-).%"&'00?,(5",4%'+%"&.4,'+3,
3).$&3"&.4,$7,3"#$%&'%?,'+3,A5$,1"0)"-",(5"?,5'-",',#)..)$+,($,"0)#)+'(",'00,(&'%".,$7,
.<%5,;'(5$0$C)".,7&$#,;$0)()%'0,0)7"/,
M
Hard-liners*(duros)
§
8'?,1","O<'00?,3).;$."3,($,<.",&";&"..)$+,'+3,($,($0"&'(",(5",'&1)(&'&?,'%(.,$7,(5",
';;&$;&)'(",#)+).(&?,$&,."%<&)(?,'C"+%?
®
8'?,1",)+3).()+C<).5'10",7&$#,5'&360)+"&.,)+,(5",7)&.(,4&"'%()-"4,;5'.",$7,(5",
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#"
M
"What*turns*them*into*soft-liners*is*their*increasing*awareness*that*the*regime*they*
helped*to*implant,*and*in*which*they*usually*occupy*important*positions,*will*have*to*
make*use,*in*the*foreseeable*future,*of*some*degree*or*some*form*of*electoral*
legitimation"*(16)
M
"If*its*eventual*legitimation*is*to*be*feasible,*the*regime*cannot*wait*too*long*before*
introducing*certain*freedoms,*at*least*to*the*extent*acceptable*to*moderate*segments*
of*the*domestic*opposition*and*of*international*public*opinion"*(16)
M
R7,(5)+C.,'&",C$)+C,A"00B,A5?,)+(&$3<%",+"A,'%($&.,'+3,<+%"&(')+()".\
◊
Why*risk*the*"achievements*of*the*regime"*for*the*sake*of*the*fuzzy*long-
term*advantages*advocated*by*the*soft-liners?*This*is*the*typical*argument*
used*by*hard-liners,*technocrats,*and*many*others*who*prefer*to*continue*
enjoying*the*perquisites*of*unchallenged*authoritarian*rule,*against*the*
soft-liners
◊
Argentina*1976-1983*-- couldn't*miss*the*opportunity,*since*they*achieved*
so*few*successes
◊
"The*most*favorable*occasions*for*attempting*liberalization*come*at*periods*of*
high*economic*conjuncture,*in*which*the*soft-liners*hope*that*the*regime's*
effectiveness*will*be*transferred*into*popular*support*for*the*regime*during*the*
transition.*But*these*are*the*periods*during*which*the*soft-liners*are*likely*to*find*
less*support*for*-- and*to*be*less*self-convinced*of*-- their*goals."*(16)
®
25",()#)+C,$7,',7)&.(,."&)$<.,'(("#;(,'(,0)1"&'0)*'()$+,;$.".,',;'&'3$9,(5'(,A"'>"+.,(5",
;&$.;"%(.,7$&,&"C)#",)+%<#1"+(.,3<&)+C,(&'+.)()$+
M
4Soft-liners*distinguish*themselves*form*hard-liners*by*proclaiming*that*some*form*of*
democracy*is*the*necessary*outcome*of*the*authoritarian*episode*that*they*
'unfortunately'*had*to*impose"*(17)
M
The*hard-liners*tend*to*have*more*weight*in*the*initial*phases,*all*the*more*so*
where*the*threat*and*preceding*crisis*have*been*the*most*severe.*This*implies*a*
tendency*for*a*greater*and*more*systematic*use*of*repression*and*the*
probability*that*there*will*be*a*more*extensive*effort*to*eradicate*the*
institutions*of*previous*democratic*experiences
®
Soft-liners*emerge*with*their*recognition*that,*at*some*point*in*the*future,*some*
kind*of*political*"opening"*will*be*necessary
®
The*motives*and*circumstances*under*which*an*authoritarian*regime*came*to*power*
can*have*a*lasting*effect*on*its*eventual*outcome"*(17)
M
Soft-liners*(blandos)
§
Hard-liners*and*Soft-liners
○
Moreover,*the*factor*which*most*probabilistically*assured*a*democratic*outcome*to*
the*transition*was*occupation*by*a*foreign*power*which*was*itself*a*political*
democracy*(18)
M
W%%$&3)+C,($,]5)00);;",=%5#)(("&,'+3,^'<&"+%",N5)("5"'3B,(5",#$.(,7&"O<"+(,%$+("9(,A)(5)+,
A5)%5,',(&'+.)()$+,7&$#,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",5'.,1"C<+,)+,&"%"+(,3"%'3".,5'.,1""+,#)0)('&?,
3"7"'(,)+,'+,)+("&+'()$+'0,%$+70)%(
§
]$&(<C'0,"9'#;0"L (5",)#;"+3)+C,3"7"'(,$7,)(.,%$0$+)'0,;&"("+.)$+.,A'.,',#'D$&,7'%($&,)+,
1&)+)+C,3$A+,(5",'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#"/,X-"+,(5"&"B,'.,_"++"(5,8'9A"00Q.,%5';("&,)+3)%'(".B,
3$#".()%,%$+70)%(.,'+3,#$()-".,A"&",)#;$&('+(,7'%($&.,)+,(5",&"C)#"Q.,)+'1)0)(?,($,3"7"+3,)(."07,
'C')+.(,A5'(,A'.B,'7("&,'00B,)+)()'00?, ',;<(.%5,1?,',.#'00,C&$<;,$7,D<+)$&,'&#?,$77)%"&.,HT`I
§
In*all*the*other*cases,*the*reasons*for*launching*a*transition*can*be*found*predominately*in*
domestic,*internal*factors*(18)
§
"What*brings*down*a*democracy*is*not*the*inverse*of*those*factors*that*bring*down*an*
authoritative*regime*-- and*the*same*can*be*said*for*the*successful*consolidation*of*
these*respective*regime*types"*(18).
M
25"?,&"%$C+)*",(5'(,;$0)()%'0,'+3,.$%)'0,;&$%"..".,'&",+")(5"&,.?##"(&)%,+$&,&"-"&.)10",HT`I
§
Hope,*opportunity,*choice,*incorporation*of*new*actors,*shaping*and*renewal*of*
political*identities,*inventiveness*
®
"one*of*the*basic*arguments*(which*we*share)*of*the*Juan*Linz*and*Alfred*Stepan*
volume*to*which*we*have*just*made*implicit*reference,*is*that*none*of*those*
breakdowns*was*fatalistically*bound*to*occur,*that*is,*they*could*have*been*
avoided*if*some*strategic*decision*had*been*made*and*especially*if*some*crucial*
mistakes*had*not*been*committed"*(19)
®
Crucial*personae*during*the*breakdown*period*seem*like*actors*in*a*Greek*
tragedy*[…]*anticipating*their*fate*but*fulfilling*it*to*the*bitter*end,*powerless*
either*to*modify*their*solidarities,*alliances,*and*styles,*or*to*control*the*
international,*macroeconomic,*macrosocial,*and*institutional*factors*that*led*
toward*the*breakdown*(18)
®
In*contrast,*the*uncertainties,*risks,*and*deficits*of*information*characteristic*of*
the*transition*away*from*authoritarian*rule*have*as*their*counterpart*a*context*
of*expanding*(if*uncertain)*choices,*of*widespread*hopes,*of*innumerable*
experiments*toward*the*expansion*of*the*political*arena,*and*of*manifold*levels*
of*social*participation*(19)
®
What*actors*do*and*do*not*do*seems*much*less*tightly*determined*by*"macro"*
structural*factors*during*the*transitions*we*study*here*than*during*the*
breakdown*of*democratic*regimes*(19)
®
N5'(,C)-".,%5'&'%("&).()%, 70'-$&,($,#'+?,#$#"+(.,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+\,25","9<0('+(,
7""0)+C,H"-"+,)7,)(,).,<.<'00?,O<)(","9'CC"&'("3I,(5'(,(5",7<(<&",).,$;"+B,'+3,(5'(,(5",
)3"'0.,'+3,3"%).)$+,%$<+(,'.,#<%5,'.,)+("&".(.,'+3,.(&<%(<&"./,
®
"But*the*main*reason*for*this*asymmetry*[…]*the*high*degree*of*indeterminacy*of*
social*and*political*action*and*the*inordinate*degrees*of*freedom*that*collective*and*
even*individual*action*may*have*at*some*momentous*junctures*of*the*transition"*(19)
M
The*liberalization*and*eventual*democratization*of*authoritarian*regimes*may*have*its*
conspiratorial*side,*but*it*also*involves,*as*we*shall*see,*a*crucial*component*of*mobilization*
and*organization*of*large*numbers*of*individuals,*thereby*attenuating*the*role*of*external*
factors"*(18)
§
In*these*two*countries,*the*decision*to*liberalize*was*made*my*high-echelon,*
dominant*personnel*in*the*incumbent*regime*in*the*face*of*a*weak*and*
disorganized*opposition.*Portugal offers*a*slight*variant*on*this*scenario,*in*that*
the*"openers"*came*from*the*middle*echelon*of*the*military,*who*were*quickly*
compelled*by*the*ensuing*spontaneous*popular*mobilization*not*just*to*liberalize*
but*to*democratize.*
®
Brazil*and*Spain*-- cases*of*such*a*direct*causalityM
"The*"decision*to*open"*was*heavily*influenced*by*the*presence*of*strong*
opposition*forces*in*the*civilian*population.*Nevertheless,*several*putschs*and*
purges*had*to*occur,*in*the*government*and*in*the*armed*forces,*before*the*soft-
liners*acquired*sufficient*control*over*governmental*and*military*positions*to*be*
able*to*implement*such*a*decision"*(19-20)
®
Greece,*Peru,*Argentina*(circa*1970)M
"We*assert*that*there*is*no*transition*whose*beginning*is*not*the*consequence*-- direct*or*
indirect*-- of*important*divisions*within*the*authoritarian*regime*itself,*principally*along*the*
fluctuating*cleavage*between*hard-liners*and*soft-liners*(19)
§
a$(,D<.(,$;;$+"+(.,1<(,#$.(,$7,(5$.",A)(5)+,(5",&"C)#",%$+%0<3"3,(5'(,(5",
"9;"&)"+%", $7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",A'.,',&".$<+3)+C,7')0<&","-"+,'%%$&3)+C,($,
(5",.('+3'&3.,$7,(5",&"C)#",)(."07,5'3,".('10).5"3/,:;;$+"+(.,A"&",
.()#<0'("3,($,'%(,1"%'<.",(5",7')0<&",A'.,.$,$1-)$<./,b<0)+C,C&$<;.B,
)+%0<3)+C,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".B,A"&",0"..,'+3,0"..,%$+7)3"+(,$7,(5")&,$A+,
%';'%)()".B,'.,A"00,'.,3"";0?,7&'C#"+("3,1?,&"%&)#)+'()$+.,$-"&,A5$,A'.,
&".;$+.)10",7$&,(5",&"C)#"Q.,7')0<&"./,8"3)'($&.,A"&",+$,0$+C"&,A)00)+C,($,
'&1)(&'(",3).."+(,'+3,5$03,%$'0)()$+.,($C"(5"&/,K'%"3,A)(5,(5).B,(5",
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"&.,.$<C5(,',&';)3,4;$0)()%'0, $<(0"(/4,25).,C'-",'#;0",&$$#,
($,(5",.$7(60)+"&.B,7$&,A5$#,)(,.""#"3,0"..,&).>?,($,0'<+%5,(5",%$<+(&?,)+($,
0)1"&'0)*'()$+B,'+3,"-"+,3"#$%&'()*'()$+B,(5'+,($,%$+()+<",.(&<CC0)+C,
)+70"9)10?,'+3,)+"77"%()-"0?,'C')+.(,',&).)+C,()3",$7,$;;$.)()$+B,7"3,1?,
3"7"%()$+,7&$#,(5",&"C)#"Q.,&'+>.,HcdI
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®
f$;"3,(5"?,%$<03,;<(,($C"(5"&,',%$#7$&('10",#'D$&)(?B,')#"3,'(,
'((')+)+C,"0"%($&'0, &'()7)%'()$+,'+3,;$;<0'&,0"C)()#'()$+,7$&,A5'(,5'.,
'0A'?.,1""+,(5",#$.(,."+.)()-",)+("&+'0,#'+'C"#"+(,;&$10"#,7$&,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"&.B,+'#"0?B,.<%%"..)$+,($,($;,"9"%<()-", $77)%"/
}
BrazilL,+$(,$+0?,A"&",.$#",$7,(5",g&'*)0)'+,#)0)('&?,0"3,($,;&"7"&,
0)1"&'0)*'()$+,1?,(5")&,$A+,7'%()$+'0).#B,1<(,)+,(5","'&0?,ThidQ.,;'&(,$7,
(5",1<&C"$).)",$;("3,7$&,0)#)("3,3"#$%&'()*'()$+,$<(,$7,%$+%"&+,$-"&,
(5","9;'+.)$+,'+3,C&$A)+C,'<($+$#?,$7,.('(",'C"+%)".,A5)%5,5'3,
'%%$#;'+)"3,"%$+$#)%,C&$A(5,3<&)+C,(5",;&"-)$<.,'<(5$&)('&)'+,
3"%'3"
}
=;')+L,)+,=;')+B,',1<.)+"..,%0'..,.)#)0'&0?,7'-$&"3,1?,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",
A'.,'0.$,;&";'&"3,($,.<;;$&(,',(&'+.)()$+,7&$#,)(B,"-"+,#$&",.$,.)+%",
)(,A'.,.""+,'.,',&"O<).)(",($,"-"+(<'0,"+(&?,)+($,(5",X<&$;"'+,
V$##<+)(?,66 1<(,(5","9'%(,()#)+C,$7,)(.,$%%<&&"+%",A'.,%$+()+C"+(,
<;$+,',.;"%)7)%,"-"+(B,(5",3"'(5,$7,K&'+%).%$,K&'+%$/
}
W<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,(5'(,5'3,1""+,&"0'()-"0?,.<%%"..7<0,'+3,5"+%",5'3,
"+%$<+("&"3,',0"..,'%()-",'+3,'CC&"..)-",$;;$.)()$+,$;("3,7$&,(5",(&'+.)()$+,
A)(5,',5)C5"&,3"C&"",$7,."076%$+7)3"+%"/
◊
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g&'*)0,'+3,=;')+,-./,]"&<B,e&""%"B, '+3,W&C"+()+'M
The*general*point*remains:*those*regimes*that*felt*themselves*successful*were*those*in*
which*the*decision*to*embark*on*a*transition*was*taken*without*a*high*degree*of*prior*
internal*disaggregation*or*external*pressure*(21)
M
:Q!$++"00L,(5",#)0)('&?6;$;<0).(,&"C)#",)+,]"&< 5'3,C$'0.,'+3,.$%)'0,1'.".,O<)(",3)77"&"+(,
7&$#,(5",$(5"&,"9;"&)"+%".,A",5'-","9'#)+"3/,W0.$B,)(,';;0)"3,$+0?,#$3"&'(",&";&"..)$+,
'+3,#'3",7"A,%5'+C".,)+,5'1)(<'0,;'(("&.,)+,(5).,&"C'&3/
M
=)#)0'&0?B,(5","9;"&)#"+(,)+,1<&"'<%&'()%6'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",A5)%5,1"C'+,)+,Th[[,)+,
W&C"+()+' A'.,%5'&'%("&)*"3,1?,',0$A,0"-"0,$7,;&"-)$<.,(5&"'(B,(5",'#1)C<$<.,&$0",;0'?"3,
1?,]"&$+).#,'+3,(5",<+)$+.,)+,(5")&,)+)()'0,.<;;$&(,7$&,(5",%$<;B,'+3,1?,5)C5,
"9;"%('()$+.,(5'(,4.$%)'0,;"'%"4,'+3,3"-"0$;#"+(,A$<03,1",&"0'()-"0?,"'.?,($,'%5)"-"j,
5"+%",(5",0"-"0,$7,&";&"..)$+,A'.,&"0'()-"0?,0$A,HcdI/,
M
Conversely,*no*transition*can*be*forced*purely*by*opponents*against*a*regime*
which*maintains*the*cohesion,*capacity,*and*disposition*to*apply*repression.*
Perpetuation*in*power*or*armed*revolutionary*struggle*become*the*only*likely*
outcomes*of*such*cases.*On*the*other*hand,*where*the*cost*of*acting*in*dissent*is*
rather*low,*but*the*objective*performance*and*subjective*confidence*of*the*
regime*are*high,*a*transition*is*not*likely*to*occur,*and*when*it*does,*it*is*bound*
to*be*restricted*initially*to*rules*and*issues*which*the*authoritarian*rulers*feel*
they*can*control (USE*THIS)
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Regime-confident,*self-initiated*scenario:*the*sequence,*rhythm,*and*scope*of*
liberalization*and*democratization*tend*to*remain*more*firmly*in*the*control*of*
incumbents*(and,*therefore,*occur*more*slowly*and*with*less*generalized*
uncertainty)
®
Opposition-induced*scenario:*the*social*and*political*forces*which*supported*the*
authoritarian*regime*stand*a*better*chance*of*playing*a*significant*electoral*and*
representational*role*in*the*subsequent*regime*(21)
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5)C5,'+3,&"C)#",."076%$+7)3"+%",0$AB,<+0"..,(5",%$.(,$7,$&C'+)*)+C,).,&')."3B,(5",0'(("&,).,
0)>"0?,($,5'-",%$#;'&'()-"0?,5)C5,)+70<"+%",$-"&,(5",&<0".,'+3,(5",)..<".,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,
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§
Context*for*Transitional*Openings
○
Opening*(and*Undermining)*Authoritarian*Regimes
@
Portugal:*Manuel*Antionio*Garretón*argues*in*his*chapter*that*a*similar*situation*might*occur*
in*Chile*in*the*event*of*a*liberalization*-democratization*of*the*Pinochet*dictatorship*(the*
longevity*of*such*regimes*and/or*the*ruthlessness*with*which*they*eradicated*national*
political*institutions*and*local*autonomies*meant*that*the*transition*faced*almost*a*tabula*
rasa,*or*blank*state)
§
Brazil:*no*serious*attempt*was*made*to*create*distinctively*authoritarian*institutions.*
Rather,*the*generals*who*have*governed*Brazil*since*1964*hadthe*good*sense*to*rule*
largely*by*distorting*rather*than*by*disbanding*the*basic*institutions*of*political*
democracy.*Previous*parties*were*banned,*but*their*quasi-resurgence*was*tolerated*
under*the*all-embracing*rubrics*of*an*official*two-party*system.*Parliament*was*
periodically*closed*own*and*had*little*to*do*with*legislation*and*policy-making,*but*it*
did*function*most*of*the*time*and*gradually*acquired*effective*authority.*Candidacies*
were*controlled,*but*elections*were*held*fairly*regularly,*especially*at*the*local*level,*
were*competition*remained*lively.*Thus,*by*the*time*the*liberalization*(abertura)*was*
signaled*by*the*relaxation*of*censorship*in*1972,*and*then*launched*with*the*1974*
elections,*some*channels*of*organized*political*expression*were*already*in*place.*
Admittedly*all*this*was*carefully*monitored*by*the*regime,*regressions*did*occur*when*
"undesirable"*results*happened*or*even*seemed*likely,*and*the*transition*has*gone*
much*slower*than*elsewhere.*Nevertheless,*the*role*of*representative*institutions*
grew*steadily,*to*the*point*that*opposition*parties*became*heavily*represented*in*
Congress*and*controlled*several*important*state*governorships.*Nevertheless,*until*
1984,*they*were*denied*the*opportunity*to*compete*under*democratic*rules*for*the*
highest*national*executive*office*(22-23)
M
Brazil*and*Peru:*shorter*duration,*the*structures*and*even*the*personnel*inherited*from*the*
previous*democracies*have*shown*a*surprising*capacity*for*revival.
§
Italy:*Fascists*in*power*for*20*years,*the*king,*the*military,*and*even*the*Fascist*Grand*
Council*played*a*crucial*role*-- for*good*and*for*ill*-- in*ensuring*some*continuity*during*the*
transitional*period,*as*Gianfranco*Pasquino*shows.
§
Spain:*the*institutions*and*legislation*of*the*Franco*regime,*with*roots*in*previous*Spanish*
experience,*were*of*major*importance.*The*Cortes,*its*personnel*unchanged,*committed*the*
extraordinary*act*of*voting*its*own*extinction*and*opening*the*way*for*the*establishment*of*
democratic*institutions.*In*addition,*the*person*of*the*king*and*the*institution*of*the*crown*
were*essential*in*providing*a*central*focus*which*consistently*supported*the*transition*and*
was*accepted*by*almost*all*as*being*above*party,*faction,*and*particular*interests*(22)
§
Latin*America (as*well*as*Greece):*did*more*to*undermine*the*institutions*of*the*more-or-less*
democratic*regimes*which*preceded*them*than*the*longer-lived*and*ideologically*stronger*
authoritarianisms*of*Italy,*Spain*,*and*Portugal.*The*former*regimes*have*often*destroyed*
previous*institutions*and*practices*without*replacing*them*with*alternative*forms*of*
representation,*decision-making,*or*policy*implementation*[…]*Additional*factors*seem*to*be*
extreme*fear*of*the*"chaos"*which*preceded*authoritarian*rule*in*Latin*America*and*the*
much*stronger*military*component*in*these*countries*as*compared*with*Italy,*PortugaL,*and*
even*Spain,*which*probably*made*them*more*hostile*to*any*form*of*civilian*political*
representation.*(22)*
§
"Once*liberalization*has*been*chosen*-- for*whatever*reason*and*under*whatever*degree*of*
control*by*incumbents*[…]*[there*exists]*the*fear*of*a*coup*that*would*not*only*cut*short*the*
transition*but*impose*a*regression*to*an*even*more*restrictive*and*regressive*mode*of*
governance
§
W+$(5"&,)#;$&('+(,"0"#"+(,3)77"&"+()'()+C,(5",%'.".,)+,(5".",-$0<#".,%$+%"&+.,(5","9("+(,($,A5)%5,
&";&"."+('()-",)+.()(<()$+.,66 ;$0)()%'0,;'&()".B,.$%)'0,#$-"#"+(.B,)+("&".(,'..$%)'()$+.B,'<($+$#$<.,
'C"+%)".B,0$%'0,C$-"&+#"+(.,66 5'-",.<&-)-"3,7&$#,(5",;"&)$3,;&)$&,($,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"/,
○
The*Preauthoritarian*Legacy@
If*there*is*one*characteristic*common*to*all*our*cases*it’s*the*omnipresent*fear*during*the*
transition,*and*often*long*after*the*political*democracy*has*been*installed,*that*a*coup*will*be*
attempted*and*succeed.
○
These*actors,*the*hard-liners,*fear*that*the*transition*and*political*democracy*are*bound*to*lead*to*
an*abyss,*and*are*prepared*to*force*at*any*cost*a*return*to*the*good*old*times*of*order,*social*
peace,*and*respect*for*authority*[…]*However*divided*these*proponents*and*supporters*may*be*on*
substantive*and*procedural*issues,*they*share*an*overriding*interesting*in*avoiding*a*coup.*Indeed,*
this*provides*a*crucial*convergence,*which*may*lead*to*explicit*or*implicit*cooperation*among*
these*actors*(24)
○
Fearing*the*Present@
W(,(5",1"C)++)+C,$7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,A)(5)+,(5",&"C)#",5'-",',.(&$+C,5'+3,)+,&"0'()$+,($,
(5",$;;$.)()$+,HcPI
○
25).,("+3.,($,A"'>"+,'+3,3)-)3",(5",;&$;$+"+(.,$7,7<&(5"&,3"#$%&'()*'()$+/,N5'(,7$&%".,(5",%'&3.,
($,(5",('10",).,(5",C&$A)+C,"-)3"+%",(5'(B,)7,',%$<;,3$".,)+3""3,$%%<&B,(5",5'&360)+"&.,A)00,+$(,$+0?,
5'-",($,&";&"..,(5",&"C)#"Q.,$;;$+"+(.,1<(,A)00,'0.$,5'-",($,$-"&(5&$A,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,A)(5)+,)(.,
&'+>./,25",7'%()$+'0).#,$7,(5",&"C)#",).,0)>"0?,($,)+%&"'.",($,(5",;$)+(,(5'(,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,%$#",($,
&"%$C+)*",(5",)+("&".(,(5"?,.5'&",A)(5,(5",$;;$.)()$+,)+,'-$)3)+C,',&"(<&+,($,7<00670"3C"3,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"B,"-"+,)7,(5",(&'+.)()$+,(<&+.,$<(,($,"9("+3,1"?$+3,(5",;$0)()%'0,7$&#.,'+3,;$0)%?,
)..<".,(5"?,)+)()'00?,(&)"3,($,)#;$."/,8$&"$-"&B,1?,%$+()+<)+C,A)(5,(5",(&'+.)()$+B,(5",.$7(60)+"&.,%'+,
>"";,'0)-",(5",5$;",(5'(,(5"?,A)00,"-"+(<'00?,1",'10",($,%$+(&$0,(5",;&$%"..,'+3,;&$("%(,(5")&,
)+("&".(.,HcP6cUI
○
That*those*who*begin*the*transition*by*threatening*a*coup*become*the*principal*guarantors*
against*such*an*outcome*is*one*of*the*numerous*paradoxes*of*our*theme*(25)
○
Playing*Coup*Poker@
25",4$;"+)+C4,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",<.<'00?,;&$3<%".,',.5'&;,'+3,&';)3,)+%&"'.",)+,C"+"&'0,
;$0)()%)*'()$+,'+3,;$;<0'&,'%()-'()$+,66 4(5",&".<&&"%()$+,$7,%)-)0,.$%)"(?4,H:Q!$++"00I,6c[
○
25).,%0'..,%$+-"&C"+%"B,'0$+C,A)(5,.<)('10?,)+%0)+"3,"0"#"+(.,A)(5)+,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".B,).,',
+"%"..'&?,66 )7,+$(,.<77)%)"+(,66 %$+3)()$+,7$&,',.<%%"..7<0,'<(5$&)('&)'+,.")*<&",$7,;$A"&B,'C')+.(,
1$(5,',3"#$%&'()%,&"C)#",'+3,',(&'+.)()$+'0,$+"/
§
4W.,A'.,.<CC".("3,1?,(5",.(<3?,$7,(5",1&"'>3$A+,$7,3"#$%&'%?B,'+,'<(5$&)('&)'+,)+70"%()$+,1?,',
0'&C",;'&(,$7,(5",1$<&C"$).)",).,<.<'00?,'%%$#;'+)"3,1?,'+$(5"&,.?#;($#,$7,)#;"+3)+C,3'+C"&L,(5",
#$1)0)*'()$+,$7,#)330",."%($&.,)+,7'-$&,$7,',%$<;,(5'(,A)00,1&)+C,4$&3"&4,($,.$%)"(?4,,HciI
○
The*Cycle*of*Mobilization@
R+,(5",%'.".,'+'0?*"3,5"&"B,(5",&".;"%()-",'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#".,';;0)"3B,'(,0"'.(,7$&,.$#",;"&)$3,$7,
(5")&,"9).("+%"B,."-"&",'+3,%$+.).("+(,%$"&%)$+,($,1&$'3,."C#"+(.,$7,(5",;$;<0'()$+B,'+3,"-"+,#$&",
.?.("#'()%,'+3,7$%<."3,&";&"..)$+,($,;'&()%<0'&,;'&()".B,$&C'+)*'()$+.B,'+3,)+3)-)3<'0.,A5)%5,(5"?,
5"03,&".;$+.)10",7$&,(5",4%5'$.,'+3,%$&&<;()$+4,(5'(,;&"%"3"3,(5")&,.")*<&",$7,;$A"&/,Hc`I
○
Fascist*Italy,*Salazar's*Portugal,*Franco's*Spain 66 (5",#$.(,3)&"%(,'+3,43)&(?4,('.>.,A"&",
"9"%<("3,1?,',;$0)()%'0,;$0)%",+$(,7$&#'00?,.<1$&3)+'("3,($,(5",#)0)('&?,".('10).5#"+(
§
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(5")&,;"&.$+.,$&,(5")&,)+.()(<()$+'0,)+("C&)(?
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f'-)+C,)+(&<3"3,0"..,)+($,(5",'3#)+).(&'()-",'+3,7<+%()$+'0,';;'&'(<.,$7,(5",.('("B,(5"?,
5'3,',0"..,(&'<#'()%,'3D<.(#"+(,($,#'>",)+,(5")&,)+3)-)3<'0,%'&""&.,$&,;&$7"..)$+'0,
.(&<%(<&".,A5"+,$&3"&"3,($,&"(<&+,($,(5")&,1'&&'%>.
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25).,7'%)0)('("3,(5")&,"-"+(<'0,'%%";('+%",$7,',3"#$%&'()%,$;"+)+C,7$&,(A$,&"'.$+.L,
§
R+,%$+(&'.(B,(5",%'.".,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",5"&","95)1)(.,',#$&",3)&"%(,'+3,<+'#1)C<$<.,
0)+>,1"(A""+,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,'+3,(5",%$##)..)$+,$7,&";&"..)-",'%(.
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(5",'&#"3,7$&%".
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Latin*America*and*Greece
§
W,7)&.(,3)77"&"+%",5)+C".,$+,A5"(5"&,$&,+$(,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,'.,.<%5,A"&",3)&"%(0?,&".;$+.)10",7$&,
#$.(,$7,(5",'%(.,$7,&";&"..)$+/,
○
25",.5""&,#'C+)(<3",'+3,4O<'0)(?4,$7,;5?.)%'0,&";&"..)$+,66 (5",3"C&"",($,A5)%5,;'&()%<0'&0?,
&";<0.)-",'%(.,A"&",%$##)(("3B,'+3,(5","9("+(,($,A5)%5,%0"'&0?, )++$%"+(,;"&.$+.,.<77"&"3/,25",#$&",
1&<('0B,)+5<#'+"B,'+3,"9("+.)-",A"&",(5",&";&"..)-",'%()$+.B,(5",#$&",(5")&,'%(<'0,;"&;"(&'($&.,66
(5",)+.()(<()$+.,)+-$0-"3,'+3,(5$.",;"&.$+.,A5$,%$00'1$&'("3,)+,(5"#,$&,.<;;$&("3,(5"#,66 7""0,
(5&"'("+"3,,'+3,A)00,("+3,($,7$&#,',10$%,$;;$.)+C,'+?,(&'+.)()$+/
○
4g<(,"-"+,<+3"&,(5",A$&.(,$7,%)&%<#.('+%".,66 5"'-?,'+3,&"%"+(,$%%<&&"+%"B,'+3,5"'-?,'+3,
A)3".;&"'3,#)0)('&?,%$#;0)%)(?B,'.,)+,%$+("#;$&'&?,W&C"+()+',66 A",1"0)"-",(5'(,(5",A$&.(,$7,1'3,
.$0<()$+.,A$<03,1",($,(&?,($,)C+$&",(5",)..<",EFG,g?,&"7<.)+C,($,%$+7&$+(,'+3,($,;<&C",)(."07,$7,)(.,
A$&.(,7"'&.,'+3,&"."+(#"+(.B,.<%5,',.$%)"(?,A$<03,1",1<&?)+C,+$(,D<.(,)(.,;'.(,1<(,(5",-"&?,"(5)%'0,
-'0<".,)(,+""3.,($,#'>",)(.,7<(<&",0)-'10"/4,HJdI
○
Selling*a*Past*Account*(without*Upsetting*a*Present*Transition)@
N",5'-",.<CC".("3,.$#",+"%"..'&?,%$+3)()$+.,7$&,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,($,7)+3,'+3,&"(')+,',4+$&#'04,
)+.()(<()$+'0,.('(<.,A)(5)+,',7<+%()$+)+C,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?L,(5"?,#<.(,.$#"5$A,1",)+3<%"3,($,
#$3)7?,(5")&,#"..)'+)%,."076)#'C"j,(5"?,#<.(,1",C)-"+,',%&"3)10", '+3,5$+$&'10",&$0",)+,'%%$#;0).5)+C,
H1<(,+$(,."(()+CI,+'()$+'0,C$'0.j,'+3,(5"?,#<.(,1",#'3",#$&",)#;"&-)$<.,($,(5","+()%"#"+(.,$7,
%)-)0)'+,;$0)()%)'+.,A5$,(<&+,($,(5"#,A5"+,7&<.(&'("3,)+,(5",'3-'+%"#"+(,$7,(5")&,)+("&".(.,1?,
3"#$%&'()%,#"'+.,HJcI
○
Our*factual*conclusion*-- stated*above*as*a*normative*preference*-- is*that*for*such*countries*the*
only*route*to*political*democracy*is*a*pacific*and*negotiated*one,*based*on*the*initial*liberalization*
and*on*the*subsequent*introduction*of*institutions*of*electoral*competition,*interest*
representation,*and*executive*accountability*-- with*the*costs,*trade-offs,*and*uncertainties*such*a*
course,*as*we*shall*see,*entails*(34)
○
Defusing*(but*Not*Necessarily*Disarming)*the*Military@
25",K&'+%$,&"C)#",#'?,5'-",1""+,#'&>"30?,#)0)('&?,)+,)(.,$&)C)+.B,1<(,1?,(5",()#",$7,)(.,
(&'+.7$&#'()$+B,(5",'&#"3,7$&%".,5'3,1"%$#",$+0?,$+",$7,(5",."-"&'0,"0"#"+(.,)+,A5'(,k<'+,^)+*,
5'.,%'00"3,)(.,40)#)("3,;0<&'0).#4
○
25",.)(<'()$+,).,3)77"&"+(,A5"+,',%'<3)00$,5'.,"#"&C"3,7&$#,(5",;'%>,($,('>",;"&.$+'0,%$##'+3,$7,
(5",&"C)#"/,=<%5,)+3)-)3<'0.,%'++$(,)#'C)+",(5'(,(5",%$<+(&?,%$<03,3$,A)(5$<(,(5")&,."&-)%"./,R+,+$,
%'.",5'.,',(&'+.)()$+,1""+,)+)()'("3,$&,C<)3"3,1?,$+",$7,(5".",%'<3)00$./,25",$+0?,A'?,$<(,.""#.,($,
(5&$A
○
Our*conclusion,*then,*is*that*there*are*conditional*possibilities*for*coaxing*the*military*out*of*
power*and*inducing*the*to*tolerate*a*transition*toward*democracy.*The*most*difficult*immediate*
problems*are*how*to*administer*justice*to*those*directly*responsible*for*past*acts*of*repression*
and*how*to*assert*some*degree*of*civilian*control*over*decision*about*promotion*and*resource*
allocation*within*the*armed*forces.*As*we*argued*before,*the*longer-term*issues*-- and*hopes*--
involve*a*gradual*change*in*the*military's*image*of*itself*as*ultimate*guardian*of*the*national*
interest*and*a*shift*from*preoccupation*with*internal*security*to*some*more*credible*and*orthodox*
role*as*defender*of*the*country's*(or*the*regions')*external*security*(36).
○
Degree*of*Militarization*of*the*Authoritarian*Regime@
Pact:*an*explicit,*but*not*always*publicly*explicated*or*justified,*agreement*among*a*select*set*of*
actors*which*seeks*to*define*rules*governing*the*exercise*of*power*on*the*basis*of*mutual*
guarantees*for*the*"vital*interests"*(37)
○
R+,0)#)("3,3"#$%&'%)".,)(,).,(5",%)-)0)'+,';;'&'(<.,$7,;$0)()%'0,;'&()".B,)+("&".(,'..$%)'()$+.B,'+3,
C$-"&+#"+(,'C"+%)".,(5'(,).,.<1D"%(,($,3"%'?,HPcI
○
=$#",W#"&)%'+,;$0)()%'0,.%)"+().(.,5'-",'&C<"3,(5'(,4%&)()%'0,"0"%()$+.4,)+-$0-)+C,.<1.('+()'0,
&"'0)C+#"+(.,)+,(5",.$%)'0,1'.".,$7,;'&(?,.<;;$&(,5'-",;&$-)3"3,'+,"O<)-'0"+(,#"%5'+).#,$7,
3"#$%&'()%,&".;$+.)-"+"..,)+,<+()"3,=('(".,;$0)()%./,
○
All*of*the*unpacted*democracies*existing*at*different*times*in*other*Latin*American*countries*were*
destroyed*by*authoritarian*reversals.*It*is*worth*noting,*too,*that*the*social*costs*of*those*
democratic*and*authoritarian*alternations*have*been*as*bad*as*or*even*worse*than*those*of*the*
pacted*democracies*of*Venezuela*and*Colombia.*On*the*other*hand,*the*transitions*in*the*
contemporary*scene*-- those*of*Peru,*Bolivia,*Ecuador,*the*DR,*and*Argentina*-- are*characterized*
by*the*absence*of*political*(and*economic)*pacts.*The*least*that*can*be*said*about*these*cases*is*
that*the*prospects*of*consolidation*of*their*democratic*regimes*look*less*encouraging*than*those*
of*Southern*Europe.*The*present*and*future*probably*exception*is*Brazil,*where*what*we*term*a*
"military*pact"*and*a*"political*pact"*were*clearly*if*not*explicitly*made,*and*where*an*economic*
pact*may*still*be*likely.*Aside*from*other*characteristics*already*noted,*what*differentiates*Brazil*
from*the*other*Latin*American*cases*is*the*relative*success*of*its*authoritarian*regime*and,*hence,*
the*firm*and*inordinately*enduring*control*that*its*transitional*government*have*been*able*to*keep*
on*the*process*(45).
○
25).,3$".,+$(,;&"%0<3",(5'(B,)+,'+,"77$&(,($,.'0-'C",(5$.",.5'>?,3"#$%&'%)".B,;$0)()%'0, '+3,"%$+$#)%,
;'%(.,#'?,1",'(("#;("3,)+,(5",7<(<&",66 1<(,(5).,0"'3.,<.,'A'?,7&$#,(5",(5"#",$7,3"#$%&'()%,
)+.('00'()$+,($A'&3,(5'(,$7,%$+.$0)3'()$+,HPUI
○
Negotiating*and*Renegotiating*Pacts@
e"(()+C,(5",#)0)('&?,1'%>,($,(5")&,1'&&'%>.,'+3,.<1D"%(,($,%)-)0)'+, %$+(&$0,'+3,C"(()+C,;$0)()%'0,;'&()".,
($,%$#;"(",'%%$&3)+C,($,(5",&<0".,$7,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?,'&",.<77)%)"+(,'%5)"-"#"+(.,($,"+.<&",
.)C+)7)%'+(,&"C)#",%5'+C"
○
If*there*are*any*lessons*to*be*gleaned*from*analogous*efforts*by*consolidated*political*democracies*
at*pursuing*incomes*and*other*"concerted"*neocorporatist*policies,*it*is*that*success*depends*on*
the*presence*of*authoritative,*monopolistic,*and*centralized*class*associations*sharing*a*high*
degree*of*consensus*about*macroeconomic*goals.*
○
Whether*or*not*such*undemocratic*means*of*negotiating*(and*renegotiating)*agreements*will*be*
compatible*with*a*viable*political*democracy*is*not*simply*a*function*of*whether*the*governments,*
political*parties,*and*class*associations*can*somehow*reach*and*implement*them.*These*efforts*
may*be*helped*or*nullified*by*the*forces*of*civil*society*which*tend*to*erupt*in*the*aftermath*of*the*
initial*steps*toward*liberalization.*
○
The*Economic*Moment@
Those*privileged*sectors*who*were*among*the*regime's*earliest*supporters*and*who,*at*least*
initially,*were*among*its*main*beneficiaries*may*come*to*the*conclusion*that*the*authoritarian*
regime*is*dispensable.*They*may*feel*that*they*regime*has*accomplished*what*it*set*out*to*
achieve*-- that*is,*what*they*wished*to*do*-- and*that*by*perpetuating*itself*longer*than*necessary,*
it*is*incurring*the*risk*of*social*polarization*and*violent*popular*reaction*(50)
○
But*the*greatest*challenge*to*the*transitional*regime*is*likely*to*come*from*the*new*or*revived*
identities*and*capacity*for*collective*action*of*the*working*class*and*low-ranking,*often*unionized,*
employees.*Not*surprisingly,*this*is*the*area*to*which*liberalization*is*extended*most*hesitantly*
and*least*irreversibly*(52)
○
4]$;<0'&,S;.<&C"4,66 (&'3",<+)$+.B,C&'..6&$$(.,#$-"#"+(.B,&"0)C)$<.,C&$<;.B,)+("00"%(<'0.B,'&().(.B,
%0"&C?#"+B,3"7"+3"&.,$7,5<#'+,&)C5(.B,'+3,;&$7"..)$+'0,'..$%)'()$+.,'00,.<;;$&(,"'%5,$(5"&Q.,"77$&(.,
($A'&3,3"#$%&'()*'()$+,'+3,%$'0".%",)+($,',C&"'(,A5$0",A5)%5,)3"+()7)".,)(."07,'.,4(5",;"$;0"4
○
^)((0","-)3"+%",$7,(5).,)+,=;')+,$&,e&""%"
§
R+,g&'*)0B,A5"&",(5).,;5"+$#"+',&"%")-"3,.$,#<%5,'(("+()$+B,A'.,&".(&%)("3,($,='$,]'<0$,'+3,
(5",V"+("&,=$<(5B,1<(,3)3,+$(,&"'%5,5)C5,0"-"0.,'+3,.<1.)3"3,O<)(",&';)30?
§
25",3)-"&.",0'?"&.,$7,'+,'0#$.(,)+.('+(0?,'%()-'("3,'+3,;$0)()%)*"3,%)-)0,.$%)"(?,3)3,
)+("&'%(B,($,.<;;$&(,'+3,.()&,"'%5,$(5"&,($,3"#'+3,7<&(5"&,"9("+.)$+.,)+,A5'(,A'.,%'00"3,
4$,;&$%"..$4,HUPI
M
2&'+.)()$+,A'.,;<.5"3,7'&,1"?$+3,0)1"&'0)*'()$+B,1"?$+3,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'()*'()$+B,'+3,
'0#$.(,($,.$%)'0)*'()$+/,g?,7'00,$7,ThiU,;$0)()%'0,<;.<&C",%&".("3,'+3,(&'+.)()$+,."((0"3,
M
The*successful*choreography*by*the*Armed*Forces*Movement*(MFA)*seems*to*have*
greatly*contributed*to*the*Portuguese*transition
M
X+%$<&'C"3,<&1'+,3"#$+.(&'()$+.M
]$&(<C'0,H)+,'7("&#'(5,$7,ThiP,&"-$0<()$+I,&";&"."+(.,#$.(,"9(&"#",)+.('+%",)+,.'#;0",$7,.<%5,
.;$+('+"$<.,$<(;$<&)+C,$7,"C'0)('&)'+,.$0)3'&)(?,'+3,"+(5<.)'.#
§
W&C"+()+'L,(A$,#$#"+(.,$7,;$;<0'&,<;.<&C",'+3,<+)(?,'C')+.(,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",HUPI
§
l"+"*<"0'L,ThU`,;"$;0",&$.",)+,#'..)-",.(&)>".,A5)%5,;'&'0?*"3,(5",A5$0",%$<+(&?,'+3,7$&%"3,
',.<&&"+3"&,$7,;$A"&,1?,]"&"*,k)#"+"*
§
f';;"+)+C,)+,;&"."+(,3'?,V5)0"
§
=$#",%$<+(&)".,.""#,($,5'-",0'&C"0?,#).."3,(5'(,"<;5$&)%,#$#"+(,A5"+,',-'.(,#'D$&)(?,$7,(5",
;$;<0'()$+,7""0,1$<+3,($C"(5"&,$+,"O<'0,("&&#.B,.(&<CC0)+C,7$&,(5",%$##$+,C$'0,$7,%&"'()+C,+$(,
#"&"0?,',+"A,;$0)(?,1<(,',+"A,.$%)'0,$&3"&
○
Their*common*identity*as*"the*people"*may,*upon*reflection*or*when*faced*with*concrete*
policy*choices,*be*fragmented*by*class,*status,*gender,*religion,*ethnicity,*language,*
generation,*ideological*belief,*and*partisan*allegiance
§
Hence,*where*the*transition*is*controlled*relatively*firmly*and*protractedly*by*incumbents,*
the*popular*upsurge*is*less*likely*to*occur,*and*where*it*does,*it*tends*to*be*more*confined*in*
space*and*time
§
Portugal:*half-heartedness*of*the*Spinola*coup*of*September*1974*and*the*confusion*
of*the*coup*and*countercoup*in*November*of*the*following*year
M
It*also*seems*that*the*relative*absence*of*this*upsurge*reduces*the*likelihood*of*a*coup-
induced*regression,*
§
"Our*cases*suggest*that*the*shorter*and*the*more*unexpected*the*transition*from*authoritarian*
rule,*the*greater*the*likelihood*of*popular*upsurge*and*of*its*producing*a*lasting*impact*on*the*
outcome*of*the*transition"*(55)
○
Italy,*Chile,*Argetina,*and*Uruguay*would*be*candidates*for*experiencing*such*a*
phenomenon*during*transition
§
Portugal*,Venezuela*(in*the*1950s)*and*Peru*suggest*a*concurrent*hypothesis:*where*popular*
mobilizations*have*not*been*a*strong*feature*of*the*past*and*where*the*institutional*
structure*of*civil*society*has*been*weak,*a*strong*popular*upsurge*may*also*be*facilitated*
§
In*such*cases,*the*very*absence*of*well-established*political*identities*and*the*sheer*novelty*
of*the*groups*which*emerge*in*response*to*liberalization*may*make*it*easier*for*individuals*
to*identify*as*equals*and*for*groups*to*temporarily*avoid*conflicts*over*which*form*of*
political*organization*is*going*to*predominate
§
But*leaves*behind*a*persistent*problem*for*ensuing*consolidation*of*democracy*(56)M
In*the*process*of*structuring*the*options*of*the*transitions*and*taming*the*popular*
sector,*one*event*plays*a*more*important*and*immediate*role*than*all*others:*the*
convocation*of*elections
M
The*popular*upsurge*performs*the*crucial*role*of*pushing*the*transition*further*than*it*would*
otherwise*have*gone
§
Where*widespread*and*recurrent*popular*mobilizations*have*occurred*in*the*past*and*have*been*
suppressed*by*the*advent*of*authoritarian*rule,*and*wehre*something*like*a*subterranean*network*
of*preexisting*associations,*unions,*movements,*and*parties*persists*behind*the*façade*of*"social*
peace",**a*strong*popular*upsruge*is*more*likey*to*occur
○
Resurrecting*Civil*Society@
25",;&$.;"%(,$7,"0"%()$+.,1&)+C.,;'&()".,($,%"+("&,.('C",)+,(5",;$0)()%'0,3&'#'B,',;$.)()$+,$7,
;&$#)+"+%",(5'(,(5"?,'&",.<1."O<"+(0?,0)>"0?,($,$%%<;?,7$&,.$#",()#",HUiI
§
R7,)(,1"0)"-"3,(5'(,(5",(&'+.)()$+'0,'<(5$&)(?,)+("+3.,($,%$+-$>","0"%()$+.,'+3,)(,1"%$#".,%&"3)10",
(5'(,-$("&.,A)00,1",&"'.$+'10?,7&"",)+,(5")&,%5$)%",H"9).()+C,'+3,7<(<&",;'&()".,A)00,1",7&"",($,%$#;"(",
1?,;<(()+C,7$&(5,'0("&+'()-",%'+3)3'(".,'.,(5"?,."",7)(,66 (5"+,&"0'()$+.,1"(A""+,%$+("+3)+C,7'%()$+.,
'+3,7$&%".B,)+.)3",'+3,$<(.)3",(5",&"C)#"B,1"C)+,%5'+C)+C,&';)30?
○
Transitions*are*littered*with*examples*of*authoritarian*soft-liners*who*overestimated*their*popular*
support:*the*Argentine*military*in*1973,*the*Brazilian*generals*in*1974,*the*Portuguese*MFA*in*
1975,*the*Uruguayan*junta*in*1980,*the*Turkish*military*in*1983
○
Since*the*number*of*elected*positions*is*limited,*the*nubmer*of*competing*parties*also*tends*to*be*
limited.*The*sheer*logic*of*putting*together*symbols*capable*of*attracting*sufficient*votes*and*
crossing*the*numerical*threshold*necessary*for*gaining*representation*ensure*such*a*limitation
○
Thus,*parties,*whether*revived*or*emergent*(at*least*those*who*estimate*having*a*good*
chance*of*obtaining*representation)
§
Show*themselves*to*be*not*only,*or*not*so*much,*agents*of*mobilization*as*instruments*of*
social*and*political*control
§
Moreover,*the*prospect*of*elections*shifts*attention*to*a*new*issue*-- namely,*the*definition*
of*the*rules*under*which*the*contest*takes*place*[..]*For*their*chance*to*strike*the*best*
possible*deal*for*themselves,*given*their*calculations*about*the*identity*and*location*of*their*
projected*supporters,*most*parties*are*willing*to*pay*a*price.*This*price*often*involves*
entering*into*implicit*compromises*or*explicit*pacts*with*the*transitional*regime*and*with*
other*parties*and*toning*down*their*more*militant*supporters.
§
b"C)#",$;;$+"+(.B,;&$-)3"3,(5"?,1"0)"-", (5"?,5'-",.$#",%5'+%",$7,C')+)+C,&";&"."+('()$+B,5'-",
.(&$+C,)+%"+()-".,($,%$$;"&'(",A)(5,(5",&"C)#"Q.,.$7(60)+"&.B,)7,$+0?,($,C<&'+("",(5'(,"0"%()$+,A)00,1",
5"03/,25).,7&"O<"+(0?,)+-$-0".,3"#$1)0)*)+C,&'3)%'0,$&,#)0)('+(,C&$<;.,A5)%5,#'?,;&$-)3",&"C)#",
$;;$+"+(.,A)(5,5'&36%$&",.<;;$&(B,1<(,A5$.",'%()$+.,66 ;'&()%<0'&0?,(5$.",)+-$0-)+C,-)$0"+%",'+3,
4"9%"..)-"4,'%()-).#,)+,(5",.(&""(.,'+3,A$&>,;0'%".,66 #)C5(,3).%&"3)(,(5"#,)+,(5","?".,$7,#$&",
#$3"&'(",;$("+()'0,.<;;$&("&.,'+3m$&,D"$;'&3)*",5$03)+C,(5","0"%()$+.,'(,'00
○
V0'..)%'0,3"#$%&'()%,(5"$&?L,"(5)%'0,.<;"&)$&)(?,$7,<+'+)#)(?,"9;&".."3,1?,'+,'.."#10"3,
%)()*"+&?
§
25"$&?,$7,0)1"&'0, 3"#$%&'%?L,'%()-",%)()*"+.,A$<03,"0"%(,'+3,5$03,'%%$<+('10",)+3)-)3<'0,
&";&"."+('()-".,A5$,A$<03B,)+,(<&+B,;&$3<%",.<1.('+()-"0?,.<;"&)$&,3"%).)$+,(5&$<C5,"9("+.)-",
;<10)%,3"0)1"&'()$+,'#$+C,(5"#."0-".
§
These*actors*compete*in*such*a*way*that*those*who*win*greater*electoral*support*will*
exercise*their*temporary*political*superiority*in*such*a*way*as*not*to*impede*those*
who*may*win*greater*support*in*the*future*from*taking*office;*and*those*who*lose*in*
the*present*agree*to*respect*the*contingent*authority*of*the*winners*to*make*binding*
decision,*in*exchange*for*beign*allowed*to*take*office*and*make*decision*in*the*future*
(59)
M
Citizens*will*presumably*accept*a*democracy*based*on*such*a*competition,*provided*its*
outcome*remains*contingent*upon*their*collective*preferences*as*expressed*through*
fair*and*regular*elections*of*uncertain*outcome*(59)
M
V$+("#;$&'&?,(5"$&)".,$7,3"#$%&'%?L,;0'%",(5",1<&3"+,$7,%$+."+(,<;$+,;'&(?,"0)(".,'+3,
;&$7"..)$+'0,;$0)()%)'+.,A5$,'C&"",'#$+C,(5"#."0-".B,+$(,$+,"(5)%'0,$&,.<1.('+()-",C&$<+3.B,
1<(,$+,(5",;&$%"3<&'0,+$&#,$7,%$+()+C"+%?
§
First,*it*is*important*to*determine*which*parties*will*be*permitted*to*play*this*game
§
"Workable*majorities*vs.*accurate*representation"M
Second*dimension*concerns*the*formula*selected*for*the*distribution*of*seats*within*
constituencies.*
§
Third*dimension*in*this*nonexhaustive*listing*concerns*the*structure*of*office*for*which*
national*elections*are*held*(two*historical*alternatives*have*been*parliamentarism*and*
presidentialism
§
k<'+,^)+*L,5'.,#'3",%$+-)+%)+C,%'.",(5'(,;&".)3"+()'0).#,D"$;'&3)*".,3"#$%&'()%,%$+.$0)3'()$+,
1"%'<.",)(,+'&&$A.,'-')0'10",$;()$+.B,%&"'(".,*"&$6.<#,.)(<'()$+.B,".('10).5".,.)+C0",EFG,
3).%$<&'C".,(5",3"-"0$;#"+(,$7,;'&(?,$&C'+)*'()$+,'+3,3).%);0)+"B,&).>.,;&$-$>)+C,',.('0"#'(",
)7,;'&0)'#"+(,7'00.,)+($,(5",5'+3.,$7,'+,$;;$.)+C,;'&(?,$&,;'&()".B,'+3,&"3<%".,(5",70"9)1)0)(?, $7,
C$-"&+#"+(.,($,&".;$+3,($,%&).".,A)(5,.5)7(.,)+,;"&.$++"0,'+3,;$0)%?,H[d6[TI
§
The*Production*of*Contingent*Consent
○
Convoking*Elections*(and*Provoking*Parties)@
25",&".<0(.,$7,3"#$%&'()%,"0"%()$+.,%'++$(,1",;&"3)%("3,7&$#,(5",&<0".,<+3"&,A5)%5,(5"?,'&",
%$+3<%("3B,)7,(5"?,%$<03,(5"?,A$<03,+$(,1",3"#$%&'()%
○
l$("&.,A)00,5'-",&"0'()-"0?,0)((0","9;"&)"+%",)+,%5$$.)+C,'#$+C,%'+3)3'(".
§
]'&(?,)3"+()7)%'()$+,A)00,1",A"'>"&,'+3,%'+3)3'(",)#'C".,<+%0"'&
§
=$#",A)00,A).5,($,-$(",7$&,%'+3)3'(".,'+3,;'&()".,(5'(,#$.(,3"%).)-"0?,&"D"%(,(5",;&"-)$<.,
&"C)#",H[TI
§
2<&+$<(,).,-"&?,5)C5
§
V'.".,$7,]$&(<C'0B,e&""%"B,'+3,=;')+L,)+,(5".",%$<+(&)".B,(5",.<;;$."3,7&""*",)+,;'&().'+,
'0)C+#"+(.,O<)%>0?,(5'A"3B,'+3,(5"&",A"&",&"#'&>'10",-$(",.5)7(.,)+,.<1."O<"+(,"0"%()$+.
§
8$3"&+,.('(",).,#<%5,#$&",%0$."0?,%$<;0"3,($,(5",#'%&$;"&7$&#'+%",$7,(5",%$<+(&?Q.,
%';)('0).(,"%$+$#?,(5'+,5'.,1""+,(5",%'.",)+(,"5,;'.(
M
l$("&.,'&",(5"&"7$&",#$&",0)>"0?,($,;<+).5,)+%<#1"+(.B,$7,(5",^"7(,$&,(5",b)C5(B,7$&,A5'(,
(5"?,;"&.")-",'.,#).#'+C"#"+(,$7,"%$+$#)%,'77')&.
M
25",%$+("#;$&'&?,=$<(5"&+,X<&$;"'+,%'.".,.5$A,(5'(,&$('()$+,7&$#,41$<&C"$).4,($,=$%)'0).(,
;'&(?,3$#)+'+%",H'+3,-)%",-"&.',)+,]$&(<C'0I,#'?,%$#",.<&;&).)+C0?,O<)%>0?
§
N5?,).,(5).,<+%"&(')+(?,.$,5)C5,'7("&,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0",)+,7$<+3)+C,"0"%()$+.\
○
K$&,',(&'+.)()$+,($,',;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?,($,1",-)'10",)+,(5",0$+C,&<+B,7$<+3)+C,"0"%()$+.,#<.(,1",
7&""0?,%$+3<%("3B,5$+".(0?,('1<0'("3B,'+3,$;"+0?,%$+(".("3B,?"(,(5")&,&".<0(.,%'++$(,1",($$,'%%<&'(",
$&,&";&"."+('()-",$7,(5",'%(<'0,3).(&)1<()$+,$7,-$("&,;&"7"&"+%".,H[cI
○
=$7(60)+"&.,#<.(,1"'&,(5",$+<.,$7,(5")&,%0$.",'..$%)'()$+,A)(5,(5",3"7<+%(,&"C)#"B,'+3,(5).,#'>".,)(,
3)77)%<0(,7$&,(5"#,($,;&$-",(5'(,(5"?,)+("+3,($,&"#')+,7')(57<0,($,;$0)()%'0,3"#$%&'%?/2$,3$,(5).B,(5"?,
#'?,5'-",($,#'>",%$+%"..)$+.,A5)%5,+"C'()-"0?,'77"%(,(5",)+("&".(.,$7,(5")&,.<;;$&("&.
○
In*the*non-revolutionary*transitions*we*are*discussing,*there*is*an*asymmetry*between*the*two*
camps.*The*right*must*be*prepared*to*sacrifice*immediate*material*interests*and*be*capable*of*
overcoming*its*short*term*symbolic*disadvantage.*The*left*is*called*upon*to*underutilize*its*
immediate*symbolic*advantage*and*to*sacrifice,*or*at*least*to*postpone*for*an*undefined*period,*
the*goal*of*a*radical,*"advanced*democratic"*transformation
○
Impact*of*Founding*Elections@
25",(&'+.)()$+,).,$-"&,A5"+,4'1+$&#'0)(?4,).,+$,0$+C"&,(5",%"+(&'0,7"'(<&",$7,;$0)()%'0, 0)7"B,(5'(,).B,
A5"+,'%($&.,5'-",."((0"3,$+,'+3,$1"?,',."(,$7,#$&",$&,0"..,"9;0)%)(,&<0".,3"7)+)+C,(5",%5'++"0.,(5"?,
#'?,<.",($,C')+,'%%"..,($,C$-"&+)+C,&$0".B,(5",#"'+.,(5"?,%'+,0"C)()#'("0?,"#;0$?,)+,(5")&,%$+70)%(.,
A)(5,"'%5,$(5"&B,(5",;&$%"3<&".,(5"?,.5$<03,';;0?,)+,('>)+C,3"%).)$+.B,'+3,(5",%&)("&)',(5"?,#'?,<.",
($,"9%0<3",$(5"&.,7&$#,(5",C'#",H[UI
○
25",7'%($&.,(5'(,A"&",+"%"..'&?,'+3,.<77)%)"+(,7$&,;&$-$>)+C,(5",%$00';.",$&,."076(&'+.7$&#'()$+,$7,'+,
'<(5$&)('&)'+,&"C)#",#'?,1",+")(5"&,+"%"..'&?,+$&,.<77)%)"+(,($,"+.<&",(5",)+.('<&'()$+,$7,'+$(5"&,
&"C)#",66 0"'.(,$7,'00B,',;$0)()%'0, 3"#$%&'%?
○
W+,'%()-"B,#)0)('+(B,'+3,5)C50?,#$1)0)*"3,;$;<0'&,<;.<&C",#'?,1",'+,"77)%'%)$<.,)+.(&<#"+(,7$&,
1&)+C)+C,3$A+,',3)%('($&.5);,1<(,#'?,#'>",.<1."O<"+(,3"#$%&'()%,%$+.$0)3'()$+,3)77)%<0(B,'+3,
<+3"&,.$#",%)&%<#.('+%".,#'?,;&$-)3",'+,)#;$&('+(,#$()-",7$&,&"C&"..)$+,($,'+,"-"+,#$&",1&<('0,
7$&#,$7,'<(5$&)('&)'+,&<0"
○
Metaphor*of*a*multilayered*chess*game
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This*is*another*way*of*saying*that*political*democracy*is*produced*by*stalemate*and*dissensus*
rather*than*by*prior*unity*and*consensus.*It*emerges*from*the*interdependence*of*conflictual*
interests*and*the*diversity*of*discordant*ideals,*in*a*context*which*encourages*strategic*interaction*
among*wary*and*weary*actors
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DESPITED*DEMOCRATIC*BREAKDOWN*OFTEN*BEING*CAST*IN*"STRUCTURALIST*TERMS,"*
"TRANSITION*TOWARD*DEMOCRACY*IS*BY*NO*MEANS*A*LINEAR*OR*A*RATIONAL*PROCESS.*THERE*
IS*SIMPLY*TOO*MUCH*UNCERTAINTY*ABOUT*CAPABILITIES*AND*TOO*MUCH*SUSPICION*ABOUT*
INTENTIONS*FOR*THAT.*Only*once*the*transition*has*passed*and*citizens*have*learned*to*tolerate*
its*contingent*compromises*can*one*expect*political*democracy*to*induce*a*more*reliable*
awareness*of*convergent*interests*and*to*create*a*less*suspicious*attitude*toward*each*other's*
purposes,*ideas,*and*ideals.*
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O'Donnell(&(Schmitter
N"3+".3'?B, 8'&%5,iB,cdT` ULcP,]8
Document Summary
"these cases show that, although international factors, direct and indirect, may condition course of transition, the major participants and the dominant influences in every case hav. They demonstrate the importance of institutions, of mediating procedures and forums tha rules of political discourse legitimate and credible in a period of change. They illustrate the significance of political leadership and judgement of the role of single individuals in comple processes. They point out, again and again, the importance of timing [ ]" (foreword) Outcomes can be simply because of confusion during transition periods -- the rotatio successive governments could fail to provide predictable solutions to the problem of institutionalizing political power (3) "transitions can also develop into widespread, violent confrontations, event to revolutionary regimes which promote changes going far beyond the politi. First: normative -- the instauration and eventual consolidation of political dem constitutes per se a desirable goal.