COMMERCE 2OC3 Chapter Notes - Chapter 4: Job Scheduler, Delphi Method, Exponential Smoothing
29 Jan 2017
School
Department
Course
Professor
Document Summary
Forecasting: the art and science of predicting future events. Forecasting may involve taking historical data and projecting them into the future with some sort of mathematical model. Forecasting time horizons: short-range forecasts: has a time span up to one year, but is generally less than three months. Such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend extrapolation. The broader, less quantitative methods are useful in predicting issues such as whether a new product should be introduced to a company"s product line: short-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than longer range forecasts. Thus as time horzon lengthens, it is liely that forecast accuracy will diminish. Most successful products pass through 4 stages 1) introduction; 2) growth; 3)maturity; and: decline. Economic forecasts: planning indicators that are valuable in helping organizations prepare medium to long range forecasts. Technological forecasts: long-term forecasts concerned with the rates of technological progress. Demand forecasts: projections of a company"s sales for each time period in the planning horizon.
