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30 Nov 2018

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-government-bonds-fall-on-strong-manufacturing-data-1530549371

The article notes that US Bonds prices fell Monday after strong manufacturing data signaled the economy has momentum for further growth.

This was based on data provided by the Institute for Supply Management stating that the manufacturing index rose to 60.2 in June, the second consecutive increase.

Economic growth increased in the second quarter, unemployment declined below 4% and forecasters expect solid growth supported by recent tax cuts and strong consumer sentiment.

While predictions related to the number of rate increases in 2018 have been modified, futures have been slow to incorporate the new projections in to market probabilities.

In another article posted the same day, - https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-manufacturing-activity-surged-in-june-1530541211?mod=searchresults&page=2&pos=1 economists have concerns that the growth is temporary and a reaction to manufacturers preparing for the anticipated imposing of tariffs showing false results and introducing inefficiencies.

If there are indications that there is room for further growth, why is the Fed anticipating raising interest rates which would cause a slow down in economic growth, while at the same time there is sentiment that the growth may be short lived if tariffs are imposed?

Does imposing tariffs have the same impact on economic growth and raising interest rates?

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Collen Von
Collen VonLv2
3 Dec 2018

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