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Consider the AD-AS framework suppose gov't spending is increased when we are in a liquidity trap and the FED does not target the IR.. assume expected inflation is always zero

1. show what happens in an IS-LM and AD-AS graph in the period Gov't spending increases, and output ends up above potential GDP and out of a liquidity trap. Then show what happens to output, the PL, and IR over time

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Chika Ilonah
Chika IlonahLv10
29 Sep 2019

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Related questions

Under the liquidity trap, money demand becomes very flat at low-interest rates. For this problem, consider the money demand function to be horizontal at a zero nominal interest rate.

A. Draw the LM curve. How does the slope of the curve change when the interest rate rises above zero?

B.Draw the IS curve. Does the shape of the curve change (necessarily) when the interest rate falls below zero?

C.Draw the AD curve? (Hint: From the IS-LM diagram, think about the price level at which the interest rate is zero. How does the AD curve look above this price level? How does the AD curve look below this price level?)

D.Draw the AD and AS curves and assume that equilibrium is at a point where output is below the natural level of output and where the interest rate is zero. Suppose the central bank increases the money supply. What will be the effects on output in the short run and the medium run? Explain in words.

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nation’s spending amount which increases the economy’s deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. That’s what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that “you can’t be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneously—at least I can’t see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.” He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesn’t agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesn’t change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates aren’t declining meaning investment wouldn’t continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states “Most spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.” He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soro’s point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states “The other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.” He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: “But when you have a collapse of credit there’s only one source of credit that is still credible, and that’s the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.” I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugman’s IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugman’s points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

MBA502, Economics for Business

Apply and Discover 7.2

You are responsible for economic policymaking in your country. Your desire is to eliminate inflation, keeping prices absolutely stable at P = 100, no matter what happens to output. Currently, the economy is in equilibrium at Q = 3200 (where Q = potential GDP) and P = 100. You can use monetary and fiscal policies to affect aggregate demand but you cannot affect aggregate supply in the short run. How would you respond to the following scenarios?

Explain and illustrate how each of these events would affect aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and prices, then explain how you would respond with economic policies.

1. A surprise increase in investment spending

In the short run, when investment spending increases, it results in an increase in Aggregate Demand (AD), which in turn pushes up both GPD and the price index.

To counterbalance this development, government might pursue contractionary fiscal policy by increasing taxes (to reduce consumption) or decreasing its own investment and spending so that the AD curve shifts back to its original position. Alternatively, the government can pursue contractionary monetary policy by reducing money supply and increasing interest rate to discourage economic activity.

2. Catastrophic floods that cause a sharp food price increase

In this case, sharp food shortages and consequent price increases cause a shock-type adjustment of the aggregate supply curve (it shift up and to the left). The result is a lower GDP and a higher price level.

The government cannot do anything to adjust AS in the short run. However, if the goal is to maintain the price level constant, the government can decide to do something to decrease the aggregate demand to force prices to come down, though it will be accompanies by another contraction in GDP and so it would not be a smart thing to do.

To cause AD to decrease, the government, similar to example above, can pursue fiscal policy (increase taxes, decrease spending) or monetary policy (reduce supply of money to the economy and thus increase interest rates).

3. A productivity decline that reduces potential output

In this case, AS shifts to the left, as was the case in example 2. As a result, price levels go up, as the same amount of money is chasing the reduced amount of goods and services, and GDP declines.

Government remedies here would be centered about causing AD to decrease through contractionary fiscal (higher taxes, lower spending) or monetary (reduce money supply and increase interest rates) policy. Again, this decision reduces inflation but at expense of GDP, as real output shrinks further.

4. A deep depression in East Asia that causes a sharp decrease in net exports to the United States

A decrease in exports of goods to from the United States to Asia will mean that the aggregate demand (which includes net exports

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