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Suppose I borrow $200,000 for one year at a fixed nominal interest rate of 7 percent.

(a) What is my nominal repayment next year?

(b) Suppose that at the time the loan was made, both the lender and I believed that the (ex-ante) rel interest rate on the loan would be two percent. Suppose the actual inflation rate over the life of the loan turns out to be 4 percent. What is the ex-post real interest rate? Does the inflation rate help me at the expense of the lender, or help the lender at my expense?

(c) Re-do question (b) assuming that the inflation rate turns out to be 5 percent and 6 percent.

(d) Given that the lender and I agreed that the ex-ante real interest rate should be 2 percent, what nominal interest rate would I have been charged if the lender and I had expected inflation over the life of the loan to be 10 percent? 3 percent? 0 percent?

(e) Inflation increased enexpectedly during the 1970s. Explain why this helped someone who bought a house using a 30-year mortgage with fixed nominal interest rates in 1965, but not someone who bought a house using a 30-year mortgage with a fixed nominal interest rate in 1980.

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Paramjeet Chawla
Paramjeet ChawlaLv8
28 Sep 2019

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