HSHM 211 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Edward Norton Lorenz, Chaos Theory, Eniac

• School: Yale University
• Department: Hist of Science, Hist of Med
• Course: HSHM 211
• Professor: William Rankin

Document Summary

3/8/17: numerical forecasting and the limits of predictability. Contributors to predictions: bjerknes and richardson, equations, electronic computers and us military, calculations, chaos theory. Retreat from determinism: does (cid:374)ot (cid:373)ea(cid:374) we should(cid:374)"t predi(cid:272)t, just means we must take uncertainty seriously. Edward lorenz (1917-2008: math at mit, 1961: worked on long-range forecasts, deterministic math. Chaos theory: sensitivity to initial conditions, relationship with climates, general (cid:272)ir(cid:272)ulatio(cid:374) of the at(cid:373)osphere (cid:894)the (cid:862)i(cid:374)fi(cid:374)ite fore(cid:272)ast(cid:863)(cid:895) Independent of initial conditions: but predictability itself becomes an unknown, (cid:862)large differe(cid:374)(cid:272)es e(cid:454)ist (cid:271)etwee(cid:374) esti(cid:373)ates of the predi(cid:272)ta(cid:271)ilit(cid:455) of atmospheric circulation obtained with different models(cid:863) No change for verification no warning: hurricane heading to city. Encourage evacuation tweak forecast: computer says 90% Takeaways: scientific progress revisited, single logic of science, unit 1: standards of evidence. Different ways of being scientific: unit 2: problems of scientific overconfidence. Is technology our savior: unit 3: inherent limits to scientific knowledge.