GEOL 202 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Exponential Growth, Doubling Time, Cornucopian
Document Summary
Exponential growth is the most powerful force in the universe. albert einstein. Virtually every aspect of humanity is now growing exponentially, at the rate of about 2% per year: population, consumption, resource depletion, pollution, even the economy. So doubling time of everything is about 35 yr. Limits to growth: no one knows: too many variables. Carrying capacity = human pop earth can comfortably hold: cornucopian view : humans have the smarts to solve any problem we face, cassandran view : humans are short-sighted and selfish. We have at most a few decades to solve these problems: politicians generally prefer cosmetic solutions, so real changes generally begin as a populist grassroots movement. Personal solutions: 1) persuasion, 2) laws, 3) economic incentives. Population: factoids: global = 7. 1 billion; u. s. = 310 million, growth rate = 2%/yr, doubling time = 70/gr. Rate: adding 70 million people/yr, shows s-shape (sigmoid) growth pattern.
