PUBPOL 201 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Campaign Finance Reform In The United States, Causal Inference, Probit

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3 Dec 2017
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It is difficult to find completely convincing evidence for the causal claim that money, in the form of greater spending, causes a candidate"s probability of winning to be higher. Candidates who spend more tend to get more votes and tend to win more often. But this correlation does not necessarily mean that the former is causing the latter. There are three possibilities, which we can put in the form of three hypotheses: It"s really difficult to find convincing evidence that it"s true, but the two are positively correlated. Those who spend more are more likely to win. Even if you don"t win, your margin, the share of your vote, goes up with how much you spend. Greater spending does cause a candidate"s probability of winning to be. This is what most of us assume, that money buys elections. More you raise and spend more probability of winning.

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