FINA 365 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Earthquake Insurance, Standard Deviation, Prediction Interval

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95% chance that returns are within 2 standard deviations. 95% prediction interval: average return +/- 2*standard deviation. Investments with higher volatility, as measured by standard deviation, tend to have higher returns. Larger stocks have lower volatility than smaller stocks. Even the largest stocks are typically more volatile than a portfolio of large stocks. Volatility (standard deviation) is a reasonable measure of risk when evaluating a large portfolio, sd of an individual security doesn"t explain size of the average return. All individual stocks have lower returns and higher risk than portfolios. Sd of individual security doesn"t explain size of return on individual security. Sd of portfolio does give idea of return on portfolio. If both have a 1% chance of occurring, does that mean the risks in a portfolio of. No: if earthquake happens, it will affect most or all homes in the portfolio, so the loss will be much higher.

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