FIN20150 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Probability Distribution, United States Treasury Security, S&P 500 Index

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22 Jan 2016
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Probability distributions: mean or expected value, variance and standard deviation, covariance and correlation. Market efficiency: concept investors demand compensation for time and risk of investment. Results differ from what expect so there is uncertainty. Rate of return compensates for risk of investment. Probability distributions: probabilities are between 0 (no chance of occurring) and 1, probabilities must sum to one. What"s the prob of getting a number less than 5 (i. e. , 4, 3, Probability distribution- can associate probabilities with investment outcomes: o. Can be discrete like table (only 4 possible returns) or continuous like normal distribution (upside down u) Can expect amusement park to not be popular when cold: plotting in graph (histogram): This shows dispersion of stock returns: mean or expected value of discrete random variable x. Stock"s average expected return in a given year. E(x) = prob1 x1+ prob2 x2+ + probn xn= probi xi i = one possible outcome. With n on top and i=1 on bottom.

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