IAFF 1005 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Cyril Ramaphosa, Jacob Zuma, Xi Jinping
13 Jun 2018
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Friday Lecture: Current News
Current news
● Xi Jinping and the People’s Republic of China
● Putin and nuclear weapons → not a new development
● Jacob Zuma ousted from South Africa → replaced by Cyril Ramaphosa as President
Global trends: 1900-2050
I. What factors and trends will shape the world in the decades ahead?
II. How will these factors affect the prospects for instability and conflict?
III. Key factors: PEGS
A. Population growth: distribution, movement
B. Economics: energy, environment
C. Governance: capable, good, democratic
D. Security: inter-state, transnational, intra-state
IV. Population growth
A. “Demography is destiny”
B. Over the 20th century the world’s population quadrupled
C. Clean water, food, and health care → longer lifespans
1. In 1900 the average lifespan was 31 years
2. Today: 71
3. 2050: 77
D. Population distribution
1. Almost all of the world’s population increase will be
in the developing world
a) Limited financial/governmental capacities
b) Little/no capacity to take on additional burdens
2. Huge challenges: food and water, sanitation, health care, education, resources, etc
3. Stability implications
4. Countries with young populations are doing better → can become educated and get
into the workforce → engagement
5. 51 countries will see population decreases → mainly high income countries
6. Every country in Europe has a fertility level below replacement level
7. Shrinking labor forces → implications for economic output
8. Pressures for immigration → stability implications
E. Ageing
1. Today 13% of the world population is over 60 years old
2. 2050: 21% will be over 60
F. India’s population in 2050 will be what the world population was in 1900
G. Population trends: 2015-2050
1. China is leveling off
2. India will be #1 in 2020s and the rest of the 21st century
3. US growth is significant, manageable increase due to immigration
4. Russia 10% decline, Japan 15%, Germany 7% decline by 2050
5. Nigeria, Pakistan, and Mexico are going to increase greatly
H. Gender imbalances
1. 160 million women and girls are missing worldwide (in Asia, mainly China and India)
2. Human consequences
3. Stability implications: domestic “bare branches,” international human trafficking
I. Urbanization
1. 1900 5%
2. Today 55% of people live in cities
3. 2050: 66%
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