GG231 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Lionsolver, Scientific Method
Lesson 1
Description and Processes
Hazards = threat
o Consider in human context
o Non- and natural
Risk Assessment
o Exposure to dancers, adverse or undesirable prospects and the conditions that
contribute to danger
Disaster and Catastrophe
o Hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation
Study processes using the scientific method
Mapping and monitoring allows predictions
Start as natural processes, as part of the system
Should we control or accept?
o Risk Analysis is an important component in our understanding of the effects of
hazardous processes
Risk — a product of the probability of an event times the consequences
should it occur
Consequences — damage to people, property, economic activity, public
service
Acceptable risk — what is society willing to risk?
Barrier — lack of data on probability and consequence
o Linkages exist between different hazards as well as between hazards and the
physical environment
Natural hazards are often linked — i.e. hurricane and flooding;
earthquakes and landslides; volcanoes and tsunami
Hazards linked to Earth materials — i.e. shale or clay and landslides;
granites and blockslides
o Hazardous events that previously produced disasters are now producing
catastrophes
Increased populations — have we reached a limit?
Magnitude and frequency of events — human activity increasing both?
o Consequences of hazards can be minimized
Most response is reactive — search and rescue, firefighting, emergency
food, water and shelter — reduce loss of life, property damage
Anticipatory response - land-use planning insurance, disaster preparedness
Integrated approach best solution – combine scientific understanding,
land-use planning and regulation, engineering, and proactive disaster
preparedness
Geography of risks
Spatial variability of disasters and their impacts on individuals and societies
Regional studies (how culture has shaped the landscape, etc.)
Document Summary
Hazards = threat: consider in human context, non- and natural. Risk assessment: exposure to dancers, adverse or undesirable prospects and the conditions that contribute to danger. Disaster and catastrophe: hazards are predictable from scientific evaluation. Start as natural processes, as part of the system. Should we control or accept: risk analysis is an important component in our understanding of the effects of hazardous processes. Risk a product of the probability of an event times the consequences should it occur. Consequences damage to people, property, economic activity, public service. Barrier lack of data on probability and consequence: linkages exist between different hazards as well as between hazards and the physical environment. Natural hazards are often linked i. e. hurricane and flooding; earthquakes and landslides; volcanoes and tsunami. Hazards linked to earth materials i. e. shale or clay and landslides; granites and blockslides: hazardous events that previously produced disasters are now producing catastrophes.
