PSY 102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Confirmation Bias, Belief Perseverance, Apa Style
2 Dec 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Document Summary
Sarah likes to do yoga and drink tea. She has crystals around her house to clean the energy. Is she more likely to be holistic healer or school teacher: based on probability and reading out thecharacteristics- you think she is holistic healer ( however in canada there is 6000 holistic healers) compared to many more teachers. Judging the probability of an event by its superficial similarity to a prototype. Ie: female asian drivers are generally bad (assumption) can make an accurate base rate of the worst drivers and the good drivers. Ie: it always rains on the weekend, ie phone rings when you"re showering ( weekend is short and showering is short ( 20-30 min/day) Hindsight bias: i knew it all along: hindsight is 20/20, tendency to overestimate how well we could have successfully forecasted known outcomes. Overconfidence: tendency to overestimate our ability to make correct predictions, part of the above- average effect.
