ECON 2B03 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Thomas Bayes, Posterior Probability, Prior Probability
25 Apr 2016
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The general addition law (probability of the union) The special addition law (probability of mutually exclusive events) When dealing with mutually exclusive events, no intersection is possible, i. e. , the outcome must be either a or b. In this special instance, p (a u b) = p (a) + p (b) The likelihood that a particular event will occur, regardless of whether another event occurs. The likelihood that two or more events will occur and simultaneously (i. e. probability of the intersection, probability of a and b) The likelihood that a particular event will occur, given the fact that another event has already occurred or is certain to occur. Unconditional from joint probability rule: to obtain and unconditional probability from joint probabilities, we sum the joint probabilities over all possible occurrences of the other event(s) A joint probability table shows frequencies or relative frequencies for joint events. We then obtain the following joint probability table:
