PSYC 100 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Base Rate Fallacy, Hindsight Bias, Conjunction Fallacy

• School: McGill University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSYC 100
• Professor: Penelope Kostopoulos

Document Summary

First ph. d psychologist to be awarded the nobel prize in economics, for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty. Comes from the greek, which means nd or discover. Mental shortcuts or rules of thumb that we take when we make judgments and choices. Problem: they tend to rely on oversimpli cation > lead to cognitive biases. Like goes with like = judging the probability of an event by its super cial similarity to a larger reference class. Base rate fallacy: ignoring how common a behaviour or characteristic is in the population. Conjunction fallacy: odds of two events co-occurring is greater than either one occurring alone. Off the top of my head = estimate the likelihood of an occurence based on how easily it comes to our mind (~ recognition heuristic). Cognitive biases: (tendency to draw an incorrect decision based on cognitive errors. )