POLI 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: John Mearsheimer, Set Piece (Filmmaking), Blitzkrieg

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Conventional deterrence (john mearsheimer) - concept related to using conventional weapons to deter a state. Potential attackers fear military action, costs are high, and probability of success is low: conventional deterrence is difficult to achieve bc leaders often assume cost is low, and probability of success is high. Wwi: cost of war was not properly taken into account. Function of civilian/military casualties: mearsheimer: particular strategies determine whether or not deterrence will work. Relationship to military strategies: attrition, limited aims, blitzkrieg. Was a war of miscalculations and misperceptions: cost accumulates in a gradual matter in conventional war. Can be more protracted, and those willing to take a great risk may start war; war is most likely when predicted costs are low. If conflict is likely to be prolonged, deterrence is more likely to succeed: leaders make military judgements based on their capabilities vs. the enemy"s. Leaders misunderstand opponent"s ability to improvise their strategies.

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