POLI 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Arms Race, Deterrence Theory, Mikhail Gorbachev
2 Oct 2016
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Document Summary
Strategic approach in nuclear age (b/c of not-so- easy to use nuclear weapon) Involves manipulating someone"s behaviour by threatening with harm. State a seeks to prevent state b from doing something by threatening b with unacceptable costs if it proceeds w/ that action. If other side executes threat, or tries to test it and war breaks out, then deterrence fails. Successful if not war, and if opp plans but fails b/c of fear of retaliation. States, like individuals, led by rational leaders that make cost-bene- fit decisions and made if costs not exceed benefits. Deterrence is one of the big approaches they have to prevent war (rivals do not trust each other) Only one of the means/ avenues to secure relations. Military approach to securing, esp. if one in rivalry situation. Idea is to influence estimate of the opp in terms of probability of gaining the objectives (denying victory) Affects calc. of probability of gaining one"s objectives.
