82:161 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Denialism, Skin Cancer

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Science makes probabilistic conclusions o make bounds on certainty. Reject true nh 5 % of the time o wrong 5% of the time. Can"t reduce error of rejecting true nh without creating additional error. Error something is happening that is really important will be ignored: 0. 00001. Liberal when null is true it will be rejected. Liberal and conservative need to be balanced: i. e. 0. 05 5: this allows progress - skin cancer example, can"t tell based on size alone, doctors are very liberal (overly cautious) - there are different types of errors, o. The probability of rejecting the nh if it"s false is called a type 1 error. The probability of retaining the nh when it"s false is a type 2 error as one grows smaller the other gets larger. Statistical power is the probability of correctly rejecting a nh if it"s false. Power is the sensitivity of experiment to detect a result.

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