PHIL2420 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Ad Hoc Hypothesis, Underdetermination, Predictive Power
4 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
PHIL2420(
7(
4.(Falsifications(and(Underdetermination(
(
13.$Scientific$Reasoning$
13.1$The$Dear$Method$
− Four(main(steps(
1. Define(hypothesis(to(be(tested(
2. Collect(evidence(for(and(against(hypothesis(
3. List(all(alternative(hypotheses(
4. Rank(them(and(pick(the(best(one(to(accept(
− A(scientific(hypothesis(is(a(clearly(specified(statement(that(can(be(tested(in(principle(
13.1.5$Predictive$Power$
− Is(about(quantity(and(quality(of(predications(made(
− The(quality(depends(on(precision(and(accuracy(
− Auxiliary(assumptions(are(made(about(the(theory(or(about(the(experimental(setting(that(helps(us(
generate(the(prediction(
− Ad(hoc(hypothesis(is(a(justification(or(excuse(which(is(introduced(solely(to(avoid(discrimination(of(a(
theory(
13.1.6$Mechanism$
− Some(events(can(be(correlated(without(there(being(a(direct(causal(link(between(them(
− Understanding(details(of(the(mechanisms(allows(us(to(generate(more(predictions(to(test(the(theory(
and(make(other(discoveries(
13.1.7$Fruitfulness$
− Whether(a(theory(helps(in(the(making(of(predictions(that(turn(out(to(be(correct(and(whether(the(
theory(helps(us(detect(and(explain(connections(that(would(not(have(been(noticed(
13.1.8$Coherence$
− Coherence(is(sometimes(a(matter(of(consistency(with(commonsense(
13.1.9$Simplicity$
− A(simple(theory(is(one(with(fewer(assumptions(and(that(posits(fewer(entities(than(competitors(
13.2$Relying$on$Expert$Opinion$
− Check(whether(the(expert(is(credible,(accurate(and(unbiased(
− Questions(may(include(
o What(is(the(expert’s(opinion?(
o Is(the(expert(in(the(right(field?(
o Is(the(expert(reliable?(Do(they(have(a(good(reputation?(
o What(is(the(context(in(which(the(opinion(is(made?(
o Is(there(any(conflict(of(interest?(
( (
