POLS2409 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Crimean War, Domino Theory, Great Power
Lecture 2 - The Origins and Course of WWI
A Fragile Peace: The Long 19th Century & Decline of Concert Diplomacy
Congress of Vienna (1815) & European commitment to a form of collective
governance
effort to behave differently
Great powers aiming to act collectively
Concert of Europe as a flawed system, prone to collapse
didnt last long, wasnt very successful
By the end of the 19th century, theres a sense of the ordering mechanisms becoming
unravelled
mid 19th century - Crimean War, unravelling of order
Great power conflict
A Fragile Peace: Industry, Empire, & Arms-Racing Prior to 1914
Military technological change
Constant pursuit of the latest military advancements
Arms-racing & state fear of being defeated or eclipsed
idea that you either keep up or get left behind
Naval arms race (Germany and UK?) - dreadnoughts ships - a symbol of prestige
Sense of dynamism and great power conflict emerging
sense of urgency behind arms racing
A Fragile Peace: The German and Eastern Questions
Rise and fall of different powers in Europe
Revolutionary challenge to existing powers/order within Europe
Emergence of a unified Germany as a challenge to the existing political order in
Europe
Germany as a dissatisfied power by 1900
Most powerful army
Most industrially sophisticated state
Relatively small colonial player
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Largest economy in Europe?
Not much colonial expansion = dissatisfied Germany
Sense of geo-political tension
Decline of Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires
Domestic + foreign politics are intertwined
sort of domino theory in Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires minds
idea that self-determination of colonies leads to unravelling
Dramatis Personae: The Dual Alliance: Germany and Austria-Hungary
Germany increasing in strength and power
Austria-Hungary frail and declining
concerned with keeping itself together as an empire
Alliance a result of failed German diplomacy following Franco-Prussian War
For Germany, alliance was like being shackled to a corpse
sense in Germany of a need to challenge Britain
Russia seen as the force that could contain or even crush Germany
Dramatis Personae: Lonely Giant - German Ambition & Fears
German ambitions:
Risk of antagonising Britain
Risk of confrontation with Russia
German sense of urgency and anxiety
World order seems to be against them
military solution would need to come sooner rather than later
Russia defeated by Japan - Russia plunges into revolution
German opportunity to confront Russia, chooses not to
Dramatis Personae: Sick Man of Europe - the Ottoman Empire
Slow-motion implosion
Ottoman Empire is unravelling and facing pressure from different directions
How to reconcile a multi-ethnic empire with the rise of nationalism? (a question also
faced by Austria-Hungary)
Dramatis Personae: Russia-Serbia & Russia-France
Serbia is small but relatively powerful
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Serbia as key to Russias aim to gain power to the south
proves military strength, gaining Russias patronage
Franco-Russian entente as an effort to contain Germany
Serbia bad news for Austria-Hungary
French investing in Russian railway
Dramatis Personae: Triple Entente: France, Russia, Britain
Unlikely alliance
Britain used to be opposed to French power
in part a consequence of German diplomatic failures
in part a consequence of increasing willingness and abilities to set aside colonial
rivalries
Note: an alliance (e.g. Germany and Austria-Hungary - commitment to support each
other) is different to an entente (more informal, not a serious relationship, step
above a non-aggression pact but not a commitment to actively rise in the others
defence
** The ambiguity of the entente is crucial in the lead up to World War One **
Dramatis Personae: The Swing State: Britains Splendid Isolation
Britains role in ensuring the balance of power - European offshore balancer
we have no permanent friends, only permanent interests
safe with moat of English channel
meant to ensure no one power dominates Europe
British uncertainty, indecisiveness, and the end of British splendid isolation
The July Crisis and the Guns of August - Death in Sarajevo
The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
Presumptive heir to Austro-Hungarian empire
one of the few voices of conciliation at the time
Committed by Gavrilo Princip, in Sarajevo (Bosnia-Herzegovina) on June 28, 1914
date is important for Serbian nationalists
not an immediately obvious catalyst of a global war
Serbian deep state sent young assassins
Catalyses major diplomatic crisis
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Document Summary
Lecture 2 - the origins and course of wwi. A fragile peace: the long 19th century & decline of concert diplomacy. Congress of vienna (1815) & european commitment to a form of collective governance effort to behave differently. Concert of europe as a flawed system, prone to collapse didn(cid:1685)t last long, wasn(cid:1685)t very successful. By the end of the 19th century, there(cid:1685)s a sense of the ordering mechanisms becoming unravelled mid 19th century - crimean war, unravelling of order. A fragile peace: industry, empire, & arms-racing prior to 1914. Arms-racing & state fear of being defeated or eclipsed idea that you either keep up or get left behind. Dreadnoughts ships - a symbol of prestige. Sense of dynamism and great power conflict emerging sense of urgency behind arms racing. A fragile peace: the (cid:1684)german(cid:1685) and (cid:1684)eastern(cid:1685) questions. Rise and fall of different powers in europe. Emergence of a unified germany as a challenge to the existing political order in.
